PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   8 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 9 - 8 - 10
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 7:   9 - 4 - 11 - 2
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 11 - 1
Race 9:   3 - 6 - 10 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

More than anything else, I just didn’t want to settle for any of the short prices in this $14k conditioned claimer, since none of the runners look particularly trustworthy. Bingo John (#3) and Life and Light (#4) both strike me as logical types. The former is getting a significant trainer upgrade to Jeremiah Englehart off the claim, and is also getting a live rider on his back for the first time in a while. Life and Light has run a little slower from a speed figure standpoint, but he is a 3-year-old who appears to have upside. They both make sense, but I don’t necessarily expect either one to offer value. My best price idea is Hang Tight (#8). This horse has been meeting significantly tougher company in most of his recent starts. His last few TimeformUS Race Ratings are much higher than the preliminary Race Rating for this race, so it is true class relief. He hasn’t been that competitive since getting claimed by the new barn, but he’s nevertheless been receiving speed figures that make him a contender here. He also gets a rider upgrade to Eric Cancel.

Fair Value:
#8 HANG TIGHT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

There’s very little turf form to analyze in this confusing maiden claimer. I suppose the horse to beat is Carlin Clan (#10) as he drops back in for a tag after facing much tougher fields in his recent starts at Gulfstream. He set a fast pace last time and had a right to get tired late. Prior to that, he ran off in the opening furlongs before getting reeled in through the stretch. He figures to be more effective at this level, but he has to settle early and finish better if he’s to finally break his maiden. I was more interested in a couple of horses who could sit stalking trips just behind that likely leader. My top pick is Proven Hope (#7). This horse has clearly had his chances to break out of the maiden ranks, and has lost his last few starts at short prices. Yet he’s only been given two chances on the turf in his career, and I thought he showed some affinity for the surface when he first got a chance over it last May. Since then he’s proven that he prefers longer distances, so now it makes sense that Oscar Barrera and the new connections would try a turf route first off the claim. Despite owning some of the strongest speed figures, he doesn’t figure to get too overbet with Katie Davis taking over the mount. The other horse that I would use is Yorkshire Prince (#9). He’s only put forth one competitive effort in his career, but that did come over a sloppy, sealed track, which can sometimes be indicative of turf inclination. He’s bred for this surface, being by Cairo Prince out of a dam who has produced a turf winner.

Fair Value:
#7 PROVEN HOPE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

The favorites in this state-bred maiden affair come out of powerful barns. Chad Brown has an intriguing first time starter in Inflationary Trend (#3), who is by decent turf influence Mendelssohn out of a dam who produced multiple turf winner Saratoga Flash. She has done the bulk of her training down in Florida, and it would hardly be a surprised if she was ready to win on debut. Yet I’m not inclined to take these types at short prices. Christophe Clement has a pair of lightly raced 3-year-olds returning from layoffs. Bomb Squad (#11) arguably has more upside off a decent debut here last November, though his other runner Orange Freeze (#3) didn’t get ideal trips in both of her starts last year and may be capable of better off the layoff. They’re on my tickets, but I was more interested in some others. Starts Now (#4) showed an affinity for turf in her debut last October. She raced greenly, trying to lug in through the stretch, but she was finishing well late. I’m a little concerned about the added distance for her, but she is a half-sister to a couple of nice turf horses that could get a mile. My top pick is La Conquistadora (#9). She hasn’t shown too much in her prior dirt starts, but at least she’s been displaying some subtle improvement in her recent races. Now she switches to turf and there is pedigree for this surface. Nyquist has been a good turf influence, and she’s a half-sister to two runners who handled grass, including the talented Runnin’ Ray. She moves like one that should appreciate this surface switch, and she figures to fly under the radar.

Fair Value:
#9 LA CONQUISTADORA, at 12-1 or greater
#4 START NOW, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

This starter allowance affair is one of the most complicated races on the card. I had to go all the way up to 9-2 for the morning line favorite, and I have little confidence that I’ve identified the right one. It’s that wide open. What does seem clear is that there is a ton of speed signed on. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with horses like Win for Gold (#1), Super Quality (#2), Motion to Strike (#8), and Naked and Famous (#10) all vying for early supremacy. Among that group, I’d be most interested in Naked and Famous, who appears to have significantly improved over the course of the winter, and now makes his first start off the claim for Horacio De Paz. Yet I want to primarily focus on late runners here. Nolo Contesto (#3) makes some sense as he ships in from Southern California for David Jacobson. He was facing cheaper company out west, but his speed figures stack up favorably against this group and he has shown the ability to pass horses. My top pick is Zeebear (#7). Though he won his debut in gate-to-wire fashion against weak foes, he showed a new dimension last time when stepped up to this level. He was reserved off the pace, and appeared to get somewhat discouraged approaching the quarter pole under conservative handling from Eric Cancel. Yet as soon as Cancel asked him for his best in upper stretch, he really responded and was finishing best of all across the wire before galloping out well ahead of the field. I think this horse is improving and can use that new running style to great effect in this speed-laden affair.

Fair Value:
#7 ZEEBEAR, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9

Both horses who could vie for favoritism in this maiden special weight finale make plenty of sense. Miss San Gabriel (#10) caught a pretty talented field when she debuted last summer at Colonial. The winner of that race, Danse Macabre, has since won two turf stakes, including the G3 Herecomesthebride. It came up a fast race, and horses have generally confirmed that field’s quality. Now she returns from a layoff for Graham Motion, who is 31 for 141 (22%, $2.90 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more on turf, and 4 for 16 in sprints over the past 5 years. Accept the Outcome (#6) also figures to take money as she makes her second start for Chad Brown. She just didn’t seem mentally prepared for the challenges she faced on debut. She got extremely rank soon after the start, fighting the jockey’s restraint into the clubhouse turn. She did eventually settle on the backstretch, but lacked a kick in the late stages. I wouldn’t be surprised if she actually prefers shorter trips as a daughter of No Nay Never. Plus Chad Brown is 6 for 19 (32%, $2.32 ROI) with maidens going from routes to turf sprints over the past 5 years. They’re both logical, but there are some interesting runners trying this surface for the first time. Dekanter (#7) ran well in her dirt debut at Gulfstream last month and has pedigree for this surface. The same can be said of Dark Dahlia (#8) as she switches over from synthetic and returns from a layoff for Jeremiah Englehart. I’m most interested in another running trying turf for the first time. Quiescent (#3) was deceptively live in her debut last summer at Saratoga. She could have been any price on debut in a tough maiden event at Saratoga, and she actually took some money to go off at 20-1. She had trained well into that race, and delivered a solid effort, just getting nipped for second behind a runaway winner. She now returns from a layoff while switching to turf, and she does have pedigree for this surface. Nyquist is a good 15% turf sprint sire. While the dam’s 4 progeny to try turf failed to win over it, two of them ran well and one sibling, Tweaqued, earned career-best speed figures in turf sprints. She shows a quick gate workout last week and gets Lasix for the return.

Fair Value:
#3 QUIESCENT, at 5-1 or greater