PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 7:   3 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 8:   8 - 10 - 9 - 5
Race 9:   2 - 12 - 4 - 7
Race 10:   4 - 9 - 8 - 1/1A

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: PROVEN HOPE (#1)

#5 Jester’s Song obviously has the best speed figures in this field, but it must be noted that he was riding a track bias when he finished second on debut. The rail was a significant advantage on Jan. 13, and he rode the inside path for much of his trip. However, this guy wasn’t disgraced last time against a tougher field, and horses have come back out of that race to run very well. Chad Brown has a pair of runners in this compact field. The well-bred #2 Higher Quality figures to be the shorter price of the two. He began his career in the Juddmonte silks for Chad Brown last winter, and put in a solid effort on debut. He was no match for winner Promise Keeper, but that one would go on to prove his quality in stakes company, winning the G3 Peter Pan. Higher Quality was eventually sold for $95k at Keeneland November, but was purchased by owners who sent him right back to Brown. He’s dangerous off the layoff for a barn that typically has them ready. #3 Digitize makes his debut in this spot, but I wonder what we’ll get from this gelding who is a close relative to the barn’s Grade 1 winner Complexity, being by the same sire out of a dam who is his half-sister. All of his recent workouts have been in company with New York-bred Aggregation, who races later. My top pick is #1 Proven Hope. He only managed to finish 6th in his debut, but there was a lot to like about the effort. He broke well, but wasn’t quite quick enough to hold his position, causing him to get shuffled back multiple times on the backstretch. He entered the turn 11th of 12, but launched a wide move to pass half the field before flattening out. He got dismissed at 42-1 that day, so it’s not like there were high expectations. That came up a fast race, and we’ve already seen fifth-place finisher Emirates Road come back to win. Mark Hennig doesn’t have great second time out stats, but this one is surely a candidate to improve.

WIN: #1 Proven Hope, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 3: HUSH OF A STORM (#2)

I don’t have a strong argument against #6 Microsecond, other than the fact that he’s dropping in class for his return from the layoff. It’s not exactly the most confident move for a horse that had clear excuses for his losses at the end of his 2021 campaign. His form in early 2021 was strong, as he used his tactical speed to great effect. However, he failed to break sharply in that June 5 optional claimer and was subsequently steadied heading into the clubhouse turn. Then last time he was sacrificed as a rabbit in the West Point before going to the shelf. It’s interesting that he switches back into the barn of Rudy Rodriguez here. He’ll obviously win with his top effort, but I don’t want to settle for him as the favorite. I also really like the primary alternative #2 Hush of a Storm. This horse has only tried turf once in his career, and it was a better effort than it might appear at first glance. He was facing legitimate stakes horses in that Bryan Station, and was trying the turf while coming off a 7-month layoff. There wasn’t any real pace in that spot, and he actually did well to pass some horses late in a race dominated up front. That turf course was also on the soft side, so I like him getting a chance over firmer ground. He’s since improved on synthetic, but I like that he brought his form to New York recently. That last effort on dirt was strong, and I expect him to move forward with this surface switch. The others don’t appeal to me as much, as all are coming off significant layoffs. #9 Straw Into Gold has to improve, and #8 Danzigwiththestars could need a race. I’d rather use #1 Good Old Boy underneath at a bigger price, since has at least run well fresh in the past.

WIN: #2 Hush of a Storm, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 7: MODERN MIDAS (#3)

#7 Eminency has to be considered the horse to beat based on his overall consistency. He put in a strong effort in his career debut and has run up to a similar level in most of his starts since then. The problem is that he hasn’t really moved forward at all, and some others appear to have more upward mobility than he does. On the other hand, he did well to finish second last time, using his speed to contest the pace before getting passed by the odds-on favorite. He finished ahead of a couple of rivals that he meets again here, but I prefer one of the horses who followed him home last time. #3 Modern Midas obviously has issues getting out of the gate. He was bumped badly and steadied out of position in his debut before launching a mild rally. Then last time he bobbled a stride away from the gate, putting him at the back of that 14-horse field. He did well to negotiate traffic, getting up for fourth, but that early trouble cost him any chance of earning a higher placing. He’s clearly better than his results indicate, but he needs to break cleanly to work out a winning trip. He gets a rider switch to Jose Lezcano, and figures to be a fair price once again, so I’ll land on him as my top pick. If he can ever break cleanly, I suspect he possesses more natural speed than he’s shown. The other horse that interests me is #2 Khufu. This new face from Florida will make his first start against NY-breds. He tried synth in the debut and ran a decent race, but seemed to get discouraged trying to rally up the rail. Then last time on turf he was very keen wearing blinkers for the first time, tugging his way to the lead before fading late. He now tries his third surface in as many starts. I’m not too concerned about the low-percentage local trainer filling in for Biancone. This horse has shown ability in the mornings, and has pedigree to handle dirt. He’s dangerous picking up Javier Castellano.

WIN: #3 Modern Midas, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9: MISSING LINK (#2)

I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches this confusing affair. Most of those with turf form are coming off layoffs, so there is some guesswork to be done. #7 Freedomofthepress looked good in her lone turf sprint last November, but she was meeting a much weaker maiden claiming field that day. #4 Highway Queen was in good form when last seen on turf. She’s never won on this surface, but she always shows up with a good effort and just needs some pace ahead of her. There isn’t that much speed in this race, which makes Florida shipper #2 Missing Link fairly appealing. This filly figures to get an aggressive ride breaking from the rail under Javier Castellano. She ship up from Florida looking a little light on speed figures. However, most of her turf races came when she was a younger horse, early in her 3-year-old season. She finally got back to grass last time, first off the claim for Peter Walder and second off a layoff. She tried to get forward from the rail but was outrun and raced keenly thereafter. That was a solid field, and she really isn’t meeting tougher rivals here despite shipping up to New York. Speed could also come from #12 Thegoddessofsnakes, who may fly under the radar in her return to grass. She only tried this surface twice last year, while still a maiden. She actually ran pretty well in both attempts over this surface, getting involved in honest paces before fading. She met some good horses on Oct. 17 last year.

WIN: #2 Missing Link, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 4,12

RACE 10: PRINCE OF PHAROAHS (#4)

This race loses some of its appeal with the scratch of #2 Saint Selby, who might have gone favored and looked fairly vulnerable. #9 River Dog is a real wild card in this field. If he could remember who he was at the start of his career, he’ll be a handful for this group. However, he really tailed off towards the end of his brief 2021 campaign. I don’t think he’s a horse that needs to be in front, so he’s drawn perfectly to work out a stalking trip on the outside. He’s worked quickly for this return as he now makes his first start for the Kelly Breen barn. #8 Bustin Timberlake is another who wants to be forwardly placed but at least he’s drawn better outside of his main pace rivals. I liked that he took a step forward second off the layoff last time, though he was aided by a track that was helping speed types. I think he’s a contender, but I’m not confident that he’ll offer sufficient value. I want to go for a different horse exiting that March 19 affair. #4 Prince of Pharoahs was turning back to a dirt sprint that day, and I think he can a lot better than his result would indicate. This horse typically wants to be somewhat forward, but he was squeezed back soon after the start, relegated to the back of an 11-horse field. That was especially detrimental on a day when speed appeared to be aided by the racetrack. All things considered, Prince of Pharoahs launched a strong rally to get up into fourth. Now he’s making his second start off the layoff, and I like that Linda Rice is trying another sprint. He’s going to get plenty of pace to close into, and now the connections know they can ride him as more of a closing type.

WIN: #4 Prince of Pharoahs, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 8,9