by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 7: 9 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 5 - 8 - 9
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 1 - 11
RACE 2: INTERNET OF THINGS (#5)
The horse to beat in this maiden event is Invest, who goes out for Linda Rice after finishing second at short prices in each of his first two starts. His second start was much stronger than his debut, despite the fact that he lost that race by over 10 lengths. The major issue with this horse is his general lack of focus and tendency to overreact to jockey Franco’s cues. Perhaps Linda Rice’s decision to remove blinkers will do the trick. Over the past 5 years, she is 9 for 21 (43 percent, $4.65 ROI) with horses taking blinkers off. I’m using this horse, but he’s not one that I feel I can trust at a relatively short price. His main rival appears to be Bears Mafia. Distance is the major issue for this Bruce Levine trainee. He seemed to improve when turned back to 6 1/2 furlongs last time, as that performance was significantly better than his prior dirt attempt going a mile. It’s possible that he’s just improved since then, but I’m somewhat skeptical that he can reproduce that effort on just 8 days’ rest. Given my reservations with the two shortest prices, I’m taking a shot against them with Internet of Things. It’s unclear how much ability this colt actually possesses, but I think this is the right kind of spot for him. He was facing a pretty solid New York-bred maiden field when he debuted at Saratoga last year, and he ran like a horse that wanted no part of 6 furlongs. He lagged behind early and was finishing with some interest while never a serious threat to hit the board. He’s been given plenty of time since then and he comes into this race off a very steady series of works at Payson Park. He’s certainly bred to handle added ground, since he is a son of Mineshaft out of a dam whose only prior foal to win did so in a dirt route. Furthermore, her dam is a half-sister to the dams of two notable graded stakes winners, turf marathoner Tricky Escape and dirt router Ulanbator. With routine improvement, I think we’ll see a much better performance out of this colt.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6
RACE 5: CANDYGRAM (#4)
There are two main players – Candygram and Hero's Welcome – in this 9-furlong allowance race. Some may prefer the so-called 'class of the field' Hero’s Welcome due to his superior prior speed figures and solid fourth-place finish in the Jazil Stakes going this distance. However, I’m somewhat skeptical that this 4-year-old can maintain his form, especially following his poor performance in the Stymie last time. I’m not way against him and will use him defensively, but I strongly prefer the other short price Candygram. This colt was forced to race from off the pace in his two sprint races at Gulfstream this winter, but he figures to control the pace here. His only prior win was earned in gate-to-wire fashion, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. This is a horse whose trip two back I highlighted in my Horses to Watch segment on DRFTV. He ran better than his finishing position would indicate that day after chasing in a difficult spot and diving down to the rail late. Then last time he just got outrun in the early stages and was actually finishing quite well in a race that did not set up for closers. He’s never gone this far before, but his two route races from last summer give me hope that he will be able to negotiate this distance. The other horse that I would throw in at a bit of a price is King Cause. His form declined last summer, but he was also running way over his head in some graded stakes events. He figures to have improved since then and Dermot Magner has sent out a few live runners at Aqueduct during the past month.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 5,6 with ALL
RACE 6: CLINT MAROON (#4)
If this Woodhaven Stakes stays on turf, it is likely to be contested over less-than-firm going, as there is significant rain in the forecast ahead of Saturday’s card. The horse to beat is clearly Forty Under, who makes his 3-year-old debut after closing out his 2018 campaign with a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. While his finishing position was somewhat of a disappointment, this colt actually ran fairly well, chasing a fast pace before tiring over the yielding going. Prior to that, he had earned a field-best 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Pilgrim and defeated a stakes-quality field in his Saratoga maiden win. If he runs back to either of those efforts, he will be very difficult for this field to handle. Todd Pletcher has entered two horses who can challenge the favorite. Empire of War brings solid credentials, having won both of his turf starts, including last fall’s Awad Stakes over subsequent Grade 3 winner A Thread of Blue. However, regular rider Manny Franco lands on Forty Under instead. I actually prefer his stablemate Clint Maroon. Unlike the two aforementioned runners, Clint Maroon is not coming off a layoff. He steadily improved his form throughout the winter at Gulfstream, culminating in a visually impressive allowance score last time out. This gelding has always been cut out to be a nice horse, but it’s taken him a few starts to put it all together. Whereas both of his main rivals have experience over yielding ground, Clint Maroon has only encountered firm going in his turf starts. Yet given his European pedigree, I’m optimistic than he is up to the challenge.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 3,6 with 3,5,6,8
RACE 8: ALPHADORA (#7)
Newly Minted and Stonesintheroad are likely to vie for favoritism in this Park Avenue division of the New York Stallion Stakes. The former made quite a splash in her debut for Linda Rice just last week. Despite getting dismissed at nearly 9-1, she burst forth from the gate with purpose and never looked back, easily drawing off from a solid maiden field. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance stacks up well against Stonesintheroad’s best numbers, and Rice typically gets horses to improve out of their debuts. The only question mark for this talented filly is the seven-day turnaround. I’ve never been the biggest fan of her main rival, Stonesintheroad. She had favorable circumstances in her first three starts and faced adversity for the first time in last month’s Cicada. While she was hardly disgraced in defeat, she showed that she can be vulnerable to a serious pace rival. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with these two aforementioned fillies likely to hook up on the front end. They may be talented enough to survive an early duel, but I believe there is at least one stretch runner who could have a say in the outcome. Alphadora is still a maiden, but I believe she belongs in a race like this. This filly ran better than it seems in her debut, when she was wide against a rail bias, and two back, she finished well from off the pace to just miss. She finally seemed to put things together last time with the addition of blinkers, running a career-best 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, a questionable ride prevented her from winning that day, as she made a premature move to the lead and was seemingly eased up late. I like the slight turnback in distance and believe she can be effective from off the pace for low-profile connections.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,8,9
Trifecta: 5 with 6,8,9 with 7
RACE 9: BANKIT (#4)
The two main players in this Times Square division of the New York Stallion Stakes are Blindwillie McTell and Bankit. The former was given a brief layoff following a pair of stakes wins in the winter and returns to action in a loaded field. Rain in the forecast is not a concern for this son of Posse, as he handled a sloppy track without issue in his December stakes victory, which also served as his maiden win. His two 105 TimeformUS Speed Figures are among the highest in this field, and he figures to have only improved with added maturity. The only concern is his fitness since he will likely to have to outduel speedy rivals Kosciusko and Hushion on the front end. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and such a scenario should aid his main rival, Bankit. This horse is finally getting back to reality after his connections dreamed of qualifying him for the Kentucky Derby. He belongs with New York-breds, and he figures to appreciate this turnback in distance. He handled a mile back in October, but that was a one-turn race. This sprint distance should be right up his alley, and he’s developed an effective closing style in recent months. Some may be concerned that those attempts against graded stakes competition will have affected his confidence, but I believe those recent losses will merely help to ensure that he’s a viable price. Anything at or above 2-1 odds would be fair on this logical contender.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,8,11
Trifecta: 4 with 8 with 1,2,5,7,11