PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   8 - 6 - 12 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 10 - 9
Race 7:   6 - 9 - 11 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 8 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

I want to take a stand against Pimenova (#7), who does come into this race with the best turf speed figures. She did break slowly last time and was wide thereafter, but made no impact. I’m not sure that turning back in distance will suit her and she’s going to be a very short price. I also think there are other options to consider in this spot. Spoils of War (#2) ran some slower speed figures when she was competing last year, but she was a 2-year-old at that point. She finished up nicely when dropped in for a tag at the Meadowlands last year, and the winner of that race has returned to achieve improved speed figures in subsequent starts. Dance With Me Babe (#3) is another who has some upside returning from a layoff. She was never seriously involved in her debut last year, but that was a tougher spot than this and it’s not as if she was totally disgraced. Now she returns in a softer spot, adding blinkers and Lasix. My top pick is another lightly raced option. Pauciloquent (#9) has made two starts on dirt this winter and just hasn’t looked totally comfortable over that surface. I thought she stayed on well in her debut after getting a wide trip, thought she physically strode like one that might like the turf. She didn’t run as well last time, but that was a tougher maiden claiming event. There isn’t much turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but sire Frank Conversation was a good turf horse during his racing career.

Fair Value:
#9 PAUCILOQUENT, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 2

The Calumet Farm entry figures to be tough in this maiden event, since both have a strong chance. I prefer the Brad Cox trainee First Money (#1), who put in a nice effort on debut. He broke about a length slowly and had to rush up to take the lead before battling gamely when headed in the stretch. It was an encouraging first start and he figures to be dangerous showing speed again from the rail on the stretch-out. Entrymate Kaon (#1A) ran fine to just miss going this distance last time in a race that earned a solid speed figure. However, I thought some others had more upside, and he won’t be much price as part of this entry. I was interested in another horse that exits the March 25 maiden event. Huntington (#2)attracted some support in his debut, going off at a shorter price than First Money. He was slow into stride early but started to progress while racing wide down the backstretch. However, he seemed to take some awkward strides approaching the quarter pole, and it looked like Carmouche considered pulling him up before letting him stride out through the stretch. He’s bred to be a good one as a half-brother to Grade 1-placed dirt router Law Professor. Added distance should help, and blinkers may give him some added focus. I get the sense he might have more to offer than he showed on debut and the price figures to be fair.

Fair Value:
#2 HUNTINGTON, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 3

Chad Brown has entered a pair of runners in this Woodhaven. Belouni (#4) could attract some support off a decent speed figure for his U.S. debut last time at Gulfstream, but I didn’t think he did much running in that race. He got a pretty good trip and just lacked any finish through the lane. That was a tougher field than this so he’s getting class relief, but I’m somewhat skeptical of his overall ability. Inflation Nation (#5) could also take money as he returns from a layoff for Christophe Clement. Yet this barn’s runners often need a start in their returns, and I’m not totally convinced that this horse wants to stretch out. I much prefer Chad Brown’s other entrant Neural Network (#6). He’s shown some ability on dirt, winning his career debut in commanding fashion before taking down the Gander via disqualification last time. However, I think he’s one that might prove even better on grass. Cloud Computing has had some initial success as a turf sire, and there’s grass on the bottom side of this pedigree. Furthermore, Chad Brown is 8 for 33 (24%, $2.92 ROI) with non-maiden first time turfers in routes over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#6 NEURAL NETWORK, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 6

There’s plenty of guesswork to be done with horses trying turf for the first time in this $40k maiden claimer for New York-breds. Christophe Clement sends out a pair of runners, of which Myles (#9) could attract more support. This 4-year-old gelding didn’t do much running in his career debut, but that was on the dirt and he has much more of a turf pedigree. He’s by good grass influence Creative Cause and is out of a 3-time turf winning dam who produced nice turf runner Quiet Out East. I don’t expect him to be any kind of big price, but he’s a contender. I also think the horse drawn directly to his outside is a little interesting. October Bliss (#10) is by Destin, who hasn’t had any success as a turf sire just yet. However, there’s plenty of pedigree on the dam’s side. Second dam May Night was a multiple Grade 2 placed turf performer, and the dam is a half-sister to G2 Bowling Green winner Red Rifle. Another horse trying grass for the first time who seems like a candidate to improve over it is Volcker Rules (#7). David Donk has had success in races like this at Aqueduct over the years, and this colt has some pedigree deep in his female family that suggests turf inclination. His dam is by Data Link and is produced from the same family as good turf horses like Doswell and Secretary At War. My top pick is a horse who actually has some turf experience, though he didn’t make much of an impression in that lone grass start. No Regard (#1)was a little chilly on the board when he debuted last year and never really got involved after racing sluggishly in the early stages. Yet he gave off the vibes of one who might want more ground that day. He subsequently showed some affinity for going longer at this level on dirt in November before heading to the sidelines. Now he returns in a proper spot, routing on turf, while also going out as a new gelding. I find it encouraging that John Terranova gives the mount to Samy Camacho, with whom he has had success at Tampa.

Fair Value:
#1 NO REGARD, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

More Than Work (#9) is obviously the one to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He showed some promise on turf early in his career despite failing to win on that surface. He did break his maiden this past winter racing on synthetic at Turfway, and it’s not as if he was disgraced when he stepped up against winners for the first time. Yet he did finish off the board as the 7-5 favorite, and now he’s immediately dropping in for a tag in a spot where the connections are sure to lose him. Brad Cox is 28 for 118 (24%, $1.20 ROI) with non-maidens making their first starts for a tag over the past 5 years, suggesting that these types are often overbet. His main rival appears to be Splendid Summer (#3), but he also has some questions to answer as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He displayed steady improvement in his turf races last season, and put forth his best effort when last seen at Saratoga in the summer. Yet he missed the rest of the year, and now has to get back to that form off the layoff. I think there are a couple of interesting runners getting on turf for the first time. Legendary Lore (#11) has run his best races on synthetic, and the dam was best as a turf horse. He’s a half-brother to Hidden Facts, who was a nice turf horse. I think he can move up on this surface, but I am a little concerned about his poor recent form. My top pick is another first time turfer. Mauritius (#6) doesn’t have as much convincing turf pedigree as some others, but he is by good turf influence Twirling Candy. His recent form has gone in the wrong direction, but he showed some ability early in his career. When I watch him run, he moves like one that might be able to wake up on the turf, and he seems like the fastest of the potential speeds, which could give him an advantage. Furthemore, Tom Morley is 5 for 39 (13%, $4.78 ROI) with first time turfers, so he’s won with prices like this before.

Fair Value:
#6 MAURITIUS, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

Likely favorite Lifetime of Chance (#3) had developed a reputation as an underachiever over the winter, often settling for minor awards. Yet without warning, he put it all together last time, showing improved early speed before powering away from a decent field of maidens. His 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure is far better than anything his competitors have achieved, but now he has to prove that was no fluke. The connections have also made the unusual decision to transfer him away from the trainer who got him to produce that effort. Mark Casse does poorly off trainer switches, 14 for 130 (11%, $0.74 ROI) over the past 5 years. Between the favorites, I prefer General Banker (#4). This horse was an overachiever through the Derby trail in New York, picking up third in a few points races. Reality set in last time in the Wood Memorial, and now the connections are aiming a little lower, returning to a stallion series event. He was a smashing winner for this condition last December, winning off by over 8 lengths in the slop, and a repeat of that performance makes him dangerous here. Yet I’m interested in the horse they all have to catch. East Coast Girl (#1) took a few starts to figure things out at the start of his career. He got a very tentative ride on debut, handled like a horse who needed the race. He then blew the start next time, but still showed marked improvement. He finally put it all together two back with that 11-length triumph, and he showed that was no fluke last time with a game runner-up performance in a tougher starter allowance. He may have to improve again to beat this field, but he looks like the main speed from his rail draw. He picks up Jose Ortiz and should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#1 EAST COAST GIRL, at 7-2 or greater