PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 5:   9 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   2 - 9 - 10 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 9:   6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 10:   4 - 5 - 8 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: CARA’S DREAMER (#3)

All of the major players in this race are coming off substantial layoffs, so I’m just naturally reluctant to trust the short prices in that situation. I also have some questions about how well this race suits both likely favorites. #8 Barkin seems like the horse to beat based on her body of work from last year. However, she was pretty disappointing when she tried NY-bred company for the first time in the Ticonderoga last year. That female state-bred stakes division wasn’t as robust as it’s been in past years and she was supposed to make more of an impact that day. She had run her best races in Canada going farther than this, so I anticipate that the one-mile distance of this race could be a bit sharp for her. Conversely, the distance may be on the demanding side for #1 She’s the One, who also figures to take money. She came to hand as a 6-furlong sprinter last season. She’s obviously improved since she tried a route in her career debut, but that was the slowest race of her brief career. The thing she has going for her is the lack of pace in here, as she could work out a forward trip in a race lacking legitimate front-runners. They both wouldn’t shock me as winners, but I prefer another at a bigger price. #3 Cara’s Dreamer also returns from a layoff, but I didn’t think she ran any worse than Barkin when finishing just ahead of that rival in the Ticonderoga. She subsequently lost an optional claimer at this level to close out her season. However, she was 3-wide around both turns that day and understandably didn’t have much kick left for the stretch. She has the tactical speed to sit right behind the likely leaders early and Dylan Davis knows her well.

WIN: #3 Cara's Dreamer, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5: SANDRONE (#9)

This New York-bred allowance turf sprint looks very wide open. The favorite, whoever that may be, is likely to be lukewarm, as most of the major players are returning from layoffs with inconsistent prior form. #3 Uncle George figures to be among the public choices, and he did run well at this level when last seen on turf in mid-November. That said, he got a pretty good trip that day and still couldn’t quite break through at this level. He’s a deep closer who is always going to be up against it if the pace fails to develop. His lone victory on debut came in race that completely fell apart, and he might need another such a setup to get back to the winner’s circle. #1 Deep Cover makes some sense as he returns to turf. A dirt experiment failed over the winter, but he did run well in his career debut over this course and distance. The problem is that he was allowed to set a pretty slow pace that day, and there is other speed to deal with this time. I’m instead going for a new face at this level. #9 Sandrone looks a little slow based on speed figures, but that’s not surprising given that he was a 2-year-old last season. I thought he lacked some finish in his first few starts last season, appearing to hang in the late stages of his races. Yet that wasn’t a problem once H. James Bond added blinkers for his juvenile finale. This horse broke out of the gate alertly in that Dec. 2 event, and ran with a newfound aggression, drawing away impressively once asked for his best in the lane. That version of Sandrone is not out of his element against this field, and it’s very possible that he’s further matured over the winter.

WIN: #9 Sandrone, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7: CAPITAL GAL (#7)

The two horses with the best form at this level are probably #3 Liberty Flame and #5 Royal Currency. I don’t have anything particularly clever to point out about either of them, as they’re both logical contenders. I do think this is a slightly tougher race than Liberty Flame encountered last time, and she could take money based on the apparent rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche. Royal Currency had her chance as the favorite last time and just couldn’t quite hold off Carbon. I’m not sure she necessarily gets better with the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, but she does come in with the fastest speed figure. I’m interested in a couple of second time starters who each have a right to improve. The more logical of the two is my top pick #7 Capital Gal. I wouldn’t say that she had a poor trip in her debut last month, but it was a learning experience. She wasn’t in the most comfortable position early, between and behind horses while taking kickback. She never looked totally comfortable trying to rally on the turn and only lengthened her stride in deep stretch when she finally got steered outside. She figures to move forward from that unveiling and the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs will suit her. The other horse that interests me a bit is #8 Cerretta. She didn’t do any meaningful running in her career debut, but was very green and just looked like a horse who needed the race. It’s unclear how much ability she has, but H. James Bond is 6 for 30 (20%, $3.02 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. I suspect there’s a little more than meets the eye to this one and could be enticed to use her at the right price.

WIN: #7 Capital Gal, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #8 Cerretta, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 10: SHARP SENSATION (#4)

#5 He’s Got It will be pretty tough for this field to handle if he runs back to his career debut, which was his only turf start. The winner of that race, Sandrone, has some talent and is a contender in an allowance event earlier on this card. He’s Got It received a good trip that afternoon, but did seem to handle the surface well in closing for third. The concern is that he’s regressed since then, as his first attempt on dirt over the winter was decent. Yet he's run poorly in two subsequent starts and now goes back to grass. I’m not against him, but I do think there are some alternatives trying the turf for the first time that are worth considering. Two of those who we’ve already seen on this circuit are #1 Martini Margarita and #8 Joshua. The former is out of a dam who won sprinting on turf. This Rudy Rodriguez trainee was no factor in his debut, but may improve on this surface as a son of Big Brown. Joshua has an even more convincing turf pedigree, by Animal Kingdom out of a dam had some turf talent. He’s done little running in two career starts, but has at least shown some early speed. I’m going in a different direction with shipper #4 Sharp Sensation. This gelding made one start going two turns at Fair Grounds in an off-the-turf event, and looked like a horse that wanted no part of the distance. He obviously needs to do a lot better to beat this field, but there is some turf pedigree here. Unified has yet to sire a grass winner, but there is some turf pedigree in the second generation on the dam’s side. Furthermore, Joe Sharp is 7 for 26 (27%, $4.93 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf sprints over the past 5 years, and he’s 4 for 14 going dirt to turf within that sample.

WIN: #4 Sharp Sensation, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 1,5,8