PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 10 - 8 - 9
Race 3:   7 - 5 - 11 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 12 - 11
Race 6:   6 - 12 - 14 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 9 - 1/1A
Race 8:   8 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   3 - 1 - 8 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I view Downtown Mischief (#8) as a vulnerable favorite in this small field that will contest the off the turf Memories of Silver. She’s run well in all three starts, but she strikes me as a sprinter, and I’m skeptical that she’ll be able to carry her speed this one-mile distance. There are two viable alternatives. Balpool (#10) is proven going this trip and will be tough to beat if she repeats her recent allowance effort from Apr. 7. Yet I prefer Unified Alliance (#1), who showed improvement on the stretch-out to 7 furlongs last time at Parx. She earned a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is the highest number in this field. Unified does well with this route progeny, and John Servis is 8 for 33 (24%, $2.30 ROI) with non-maidens stretching out to dirt routes for the first time over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#1 UNIFIED ALLIANCE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

The two horses to beat on dirt in this off-the-turf starter allowance are a pair of MTO entrants. Built to last (#12) comes in with strong recent form, having showed a new dimension in his first start off the claim for Chris Englehart last time. He was rated off the pace and came with a strong late rally to get up for second. He received a great setup that day, but he might be the recipient of a favorable pace scenario once again. McCrakens Ghost (#14) also makes sense as he ships in from Parx for Jamie Ness. He showed significant improvement with the addition of Lasix last time, making a menacing move at the quarter pole before getting run down by heavy favorite Daydreaming Boy. They both make sense, but I’m more interested in a runner that was originally entered for turf. Sugar Gray Leonard (#6) has run his best speed figures on the grass, but he handled dirt pretty well early in his career and may have just improved after getting claimed by Leah Gyarmati last year. He’s returning from a layoff here, but catches a favorable pace scenario in his return. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and he has the best Late Pace Rating in the field. He’s physically on the small side and could find this sloppy track to his liking. He did earn his best prior dirt speed figure over a sloppy surface at Laurel.

Fair Value:
#6 SUGAR GRAY LEONARD, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

This race loses a lot of appeal with the heavy favorite Zandon scratching. Now the two interesting price options that I highlighted will be among the shorter prices. I have to upgrade Uncle Moonlight (#1), who might now be the horse to beat after scratches. He has dangerous early speed from teh rail and has run well over wet tracks in the past. Galt (#6) showed hints of talent last year, and did earn a victory over a muddy track in his 3-year-old finale. His return at Gulfstream was somewhat lackluster, but that race featured a slow pace that worked against him. He has a right to do better here. My top pick is Tonal Impact (#8). Some may view him as being a cut below this field since he’s been competing at Aqueduct through the winter. However, he’s maintained strong form since being claimed by the Linda Rice barn. I just think his connections made a slight error in judgment by targeting longer races with him. He has a nice turn of foot in his arsenal, but that finishing speed tends to get muted when he’s asked to go 9 furlongs and beyond. We saw that clearly in his 1 3/8 miles attempt two back, when he hung badly through the stretch after making an early move. I love this turnback to one-mile, but some speed scratched out and the price won't be nearly as appealing after scratches.

Fair Value:
#8 TONAL IMPACT, at 3-2 or greater