by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 10 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 9 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 8: 3 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 8 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 10: 5 - 1 - 2 - 10
Race 11: 10 - 5 - 2 - 11
RACE 1: PUNCHLINE (#2)
This is a weird race, because the two horses with experience who are likely to attract the most support are both better on the turf. Vehement actually ran very well in his most recent turf sprint behind the talented Yes I Am Free, and would be dangerous if he could transfer that form to the main track. I’m less optimistic about Labeq, who has run his best races in turf routes and has never struck me as a sprinter, much less a dirt horse. Some may give a shot to first time starter Mo Gotcha, but I don’t know what to expect from a homebred first time starter without any serious damside pedigree. Therefore, I’m left with Punchline. I have no idea if this horse has any ability, but I do think there are reasons to believe he will run much better in his second start. He was incredibly green in his debut back in December and never seemed to have his mind on running that day. He was hardly well meant, getting dismissed at 17-1. Since then he has put forth a series of much faster workouts and Jimmy Jerkens keeps this Triple Crown nominee at the maiden special weight level. Normally I wouldn’t pick a horse like this on top, but I don’t think he’s needs to come up with a superstar performance to beat this field.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 5: SHAMCAT (#8)
This turf race – assuming it stays on turf – is one of the most confusing races on the card. There are a number of horses at short prices of whom I am skeptical. Applicator is the morning line favorite, but he is impossible to trust as he drops down to this bottom-level claimer following a dull effort to close out his 2018 campaign. Sycamore Lane won over this track last fall, but his efforts in Florida have been disappointing and I wonder if he’s lost a step. Slim Shadey is an easy horse to root for and might be the most reliable of the three likely favorites, but it’s not as if his recent form is stellar. I think this race is open to a number of bigger prices, and I want to take a shot with Shamcat. There is a dearth of early speed in this field, and even horses like Applicator, who once were front-runners, are uncertain to show speed this time. Therefore, I think that Shamcat could work out a favorable trip racing up close to the pace, if not on the lead. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runners, and many of the main threats are closers. Shamcat’s most recent win on the dirt suggests that he’s rounding back into top form, yet he’s always been a better turf horse. If we get a bit of rain, it would only help his chances since he runs well over softer ground. I would use him with the aforementioned logical contenders, as well as longshot Glencairn, who may wake up off the claim for Gary Gullo as he gets back on turf.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Box: 3,4,8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 9,10,13
RACE 6: MIND CONTROL (#3)
The top two contenders in this Bay Shore exit the Gotham. Much Better has to be considered the horse to beat despite finishing a halflength behind Mind Control that day. Much Better sped off to duel for the lead and opened up a sizable advantage on the far turn through exceptionally fast fractions. He had every right to stop in the late stages but yielded only grudgingly while battling on to be fourth. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, as his main rivals prefer to come from just off the pace. I respect this colt’s talent, but I still prefer Mind Control. I’m heartened that this colt’s connections are making the wise choice to turn him back in distance rather than contest the Wood Memorial. Mind Control is arguably best going seven furlongs, and he possesses the tactical speed to be placed anywhere John Velazquez chooses in the early going. Mind Control just seems to keep improving with every start and has displayed a strong will to win. I like him to beat the Bob Baffert trainee once again. Call Paul and Mucho both have chances as well, but the former’s speed figures have plateaued since his 2-year-old season, and the latter was somewhat underwhelming in his return at Gulfstream.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,2,4
RACE 7: MONONGAHELA (#3)
The scratch of Discreet Lover makes my top pick Monongahela the likely favorite. This horse had interested me when he was with his prior connections, and he has now been privately purchased by a Michael Dubb partnership and transferred to trainer Jason Servis. Improvement was not evident in his first start since the switch at Laurel in February, but he may still have been a work in progress. Monongahela has proven himself capable of producing graded stakes-caliber speed figures, and I was encouraged that he showed a bit more early speed in that initial start for Servis. His primary flaw has been his tendency to settle for second, but I’m hoping the new connections can push him over that hump here. Nicodemus is the other horse I would use, but I’m doubtful that he will be at his best going this distance.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,7,8
RACE 8: OFF TOPIC (#3)
It’s difficult to separate the top contenders in this Gazelle, which makes me reluctant to settle for a short price. Espresso Shot is the horse to beat, but I’m not convinced she will be at her best around two turns. Her weapon is her turn of foot, and that finishing speed may be diluted on the stretch-out. Positive Spirit will be dangerous if she repeats her Demoiselle performance, but it’s hard to excuse her poor effort at Fair Grounds last time. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will have a pace advantage here, but Todd Pletcher has hinted that Off Topic may be more aggressively ridden in this race. I believe such tactics would benefit this massive filly, whose strength is her stamina. She appears to be a cut below the top contenders based on figures, but she ran better than it seems in her last two starts. I prefer her to stablemate Always Shopping, and she figures to be a more enticing price.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4 with ALL
RACE 10: FINAL JEOPARDY (#5)
Tacitus is the horse to beat as he stretches out to 1 1/8 miles. He’s bred to relish the distance and should take another step forward in his second start off the layoff. However, he will have to do so since several others in this field have run faster in recent starts. I prefer Tax, who has already proven himself going this distance and drew a perfect inside post position for a horse with his running style. Some have doubts about the Withers figure, but I trust that Danny Gargan will have him ready to put forth a top effort. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Final Jeopardy. Jason Servis will attempt to send another Gary and Mary West runner to the Derby, following Maximum Security’s victory last weekend, and I actually prefer this colt’s prospects. He ran deceptively well in his first two starts sprinting and relished the mile last time, dominating some talented allowance runners. He’s bred to go farther and proved that he’s capable of striking from a more tactical position in that recent allowance victory. He appears to be built for stamina, and I’m confident we will see a career-best effort Saturday.
Win: 5
Exacta Box: 1,2,5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,10
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3,4,10
Trifecta: 1,5 with 2,10 with 1,5
Trifecta: 5 with 2 with 3,4,10
RACE 11: EXPERT (#10)
The finale is one of the most contentious races on the card. Dark N Cloudy has a big chance if he repeats his starter allowance effort from last time, but this is a much tougher spot than that one. A number of lightly raced horses are worth considering, but I couldn’t settle on any of them. House Limit may have disliked the slop last time, but I wish his connections had named a different rider. Indimaaj may step forward, but he’s never run a fast race and had good trip last time. Sam and Jax should have finished third in the slop in his most recent start and I’m dubious that the stretch-out will help him. Therefore, I’ve landed on Expert as my top selection. Normally I would be wary of taking a horse that had ascended out of claiming races in a spot as competitive as this one. However, I cannot deny that this horse has run exceptionally well in his last two starts. He was with the grain of the racetrack on Feb. 21, but he nevertheless held off Royal Albert Hall, who improved to win a stakes next time out. Then last time, in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, he absolutely dominated going this distance on a fast track. He got a great trip that day, but he exploded once Rajiv Maragh pointed him into the clear. That speed figure arguably makes him the horse to beat, and we saw Potomac return to improve out of that race. I like it when Linda Rice gets aggressive with her horses and I think it’s a good sign that he’s running back in 3 weeks and stepping up in class.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,5,7,9,11