by David Aragona
It’s Wood Memorial day at Aqueduct, and a fantastic card is on tap, featuring five graded stakes races. Let’s dive right in and take a look at some of the best wagering opportunities on the card.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 6 - 10
Race 3: 4 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 2 - 9
Race 9: 6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 10: 5 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 11: 1 - 5 - 9 - 4
RACE 3: BRIMSTONE (#4)
Bass River Road had his 7-race winning streak snapped in the Hollie Hughes last time, as he proved to be no match for seasoned New York-bred stakes runners. Rudy Rodriguez drops back down to a more realistic level and risks him for a $25,000 tag. The connections have done very well with this horse and are running him where he belongs, as he might be tailing off. He’s one that must be used, but there are plenty of other viable options in this competitive affair. One of the striking features of this race is an overall lack of early speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, and the horse that should control the early tempo is Brimstone. He runs his best races when on the front end, but he never got a chance to get to the lead last time. He was a bit flat-footed out of the gate, allowing Jewel Can Disco to get jump on him. This time, Trevor McCarthy should be able to outhustle Final Chapter to the lead, and it should be clear sailing from there. Toohottoevenspeak looks like one of his biggest late threats, but he’s not exactly a win machine.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,6,7
RACE 5: QUEENOFEVERYTHING (#8)
Spa Treatment has certainly had her fair share of chances, but she is coming off a performance that suggests she may just be faster than her more lightly-raced rivals. Coupled stablemate Pursuing Justice also has a right to be competitive given her ample damside pedigree. I’ll definitely use the pair of them, but there are some other runners that figure to offer better value. I don’t necessarily consider first time starter Lovely La La to be among that group. Chad Brown does well with firsters overall, but this filly has much more of a turf pedigree. There are reasons to like longshots just as Catriona or Lady Vicki, but the one that interests me most is second time starter Queenofeverything. This filly’s debut was an utter disaster. She refused to leave the gate for a couple of seconds after the other fillies were on their way, spotting the field at least 30 lengths. Jose Ortiz asked her for a bit of run late, but it was essentially a race that can just be ignored. What is interesting is that she actually took a bit of money that day in a race that featured a significant favorite. She appears to be working well in recent week and she is a half-sister to stakes winner Bee Noteworthy, so she’s bred to have some ability. Furthermore, H. James Bond is 6 for 17 (35 percent, $9.89 ROI) with maidens coming off 90 to 180 day layoffs at NYRA.
Win/Place: 8
RACE 7: HARLAN PUNCH (#5)
I thought this was one of the tougher stakes on this card. I suppose the New York-bred win machine Control Group will be favored to get his seventh win in his last eight starts. He clearly handles this nine-furlong distance and appears to be the controlling speed. My knock against him is that his last effort was a step in the wrong direction. I know that he got some early pressure, but he earned a speed figure that was significantly slower than his prior two starts. This is the toughest field he’s ever met, and he’s vulnerable here. I strongly prefer the other runner who returns on short rest, Harlan Punch. I know that he disappointed as the 3-5 favorite last time, but that effort was not nearly as bad as it seems. He broke a half-step slowly and just appeared to spend the entire race playing catch-up going a distance that is a bit too short. He got pushed down to the rail late when getting passed for third, but he quickly galloped out past the leaders just after the wire. This gelding’s 10-furlong win back in February illustrates that he’s perfectly capable of handling this distance, and he’s won off short rest before. If he gets back to any of his prior efforts, he’ll be awfully tough to beat. The other runners I want to use are Zanotti, the upset winner of the Queens County, and Backsideofthemoon, who has been in great form and rarely gets respect on the tote board.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,7
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,4,7
RACE 8: GREAT STUFF (#5)
The undefeated Army Mule has run extremely fast races in his two starts, but those efforts were spaced far apart, and he now comes into his Grade 1 stakes debut off another layoff. From a visual standpoint, his last race was even better than the 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure indicates since he was away slowly and had to rush up into contention on the backstretch. A similarly slow break would badly compromise his chances in this large field, so that’s a minor concern given his inexperience. I respect his talent but believe that others will offer far better value. The top three finishers in the Tom Fool all deserve consideration. Skyler’s Scramjet used his tactical speed to his advantage and drew clear with authority in midstretch. Michelle Nevin has this gelding in razor-sharp form, but the stretch-out to seven furlongs is a minor concern. The distance is also a question mark for Do Share, who may have run the best race of all in the Tom Fool. Rated well off the early pace, he launched an explosive stretch rally to get within two lengths of the winner at the wire. He was able to get a clear, outside run, whereas Great Stuff had to pick his way through the pack while running into kickback. The thing to like about Great Stuff as opposed to his rivals here is the stretch-out since he clearly handles seven furlongs. You can argue that his best races have come at distances beyond six furlongs, and he ran a race two back in the Toboggan that makes him a top contender in this Carter. I think he’s the right value play in this contentious race.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,9,11
RACE 9: AVEENU MALCAINU (#6)
The two runners likely to vie for favoritism actually squared off at Saratoga last August, completing the exacta in a maiden race. National Flag got the better of Engage that day but only made one more start before Todd Pletcher put him away. His return at Gulfstream last time was very fast, but he was facing a field of questionable quality. This will be a true class test. Engage followed up that debut loss with two straight wins, including a triumph as the heavy favorite in last fall’s Futurity. He returns from a lengthy layoff here and only requires minor improvement to contend. I’m not really against either of these runners, but I have to bet one of their rivals. Aveenu Malcainu performed like a horse who has distance limitations last year, closing powerfully in his two sprints but fading in his two starts at a mile. They gave him plenty of time to recover from that 2-year-old campaign, and I think he’s returning in the perfect spot. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and Aveenu Malcainu is one of the few true closers in the field who can take advantage of those dynamics.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5
RACE 10: ENTICED (#5)
Read my horse-by-horse analysis of the Wood Memorial for TimeformUS ›
RACE 11: NIGEL’S DESTINY (#1)
Astounding’s recent turf form is far superior to that of his rivals. It’s actually so strong that it’s a bit curious he’s dropping to run for a $25,000 tag. I can’t imagine that his connections are holding his recent dirt efforts against him, since that’s not his preferred surface. Jason Servis is an expert at placing runners where they belong, but I am a little concerned that this one may not be ready to deliver a top effort. His chief rival is Lucky Ramsey, who has done his recent work on Polytrack, but is perfectly capable of transferring his form to grass. They’re the two horses in the best form, but I’m a little concerned that neither one possesses much early speed. Actually, none of the runners in this field are speed types, except for Nigel’s Destiny, who wired a field on dirt last time. While all of his recent form is on dirt, he has run a number of competitive turf races in his career. David Jacobson is not known for his turf claims, but he actually has good numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 23 (22 percent, $3.03 ROI) first off the claim with horses going from dirt to turf.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,9