by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 1 - 9 - 5
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 6 - 9
Race 3: 16 - 10 - 6 - 12
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 11 - 2 - 13 - 12
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 7: 9 - 14 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 10: 2 - 10 - 11 - 6
RACE 4: FILLY JOEL (#3)
Enliven is likely to go off at a very short price in this Demoiselle, and the bulk of that support will be based on her runner-up finish in the Tempted last time. That race came up very fast in terms of speed figures, though the TimeformUS numbers have it slightly slower than others. While Enliven ran fine within the context of that Tempted, I still think we’re waiting for some confirmation that longshot winner Oxy Lady is quite as good as the speed figures suggest. While her dam could get 1 1/8 miles, this family is probably best at or around a mile. I’m using her prominently, but I think others will offer much better value. I want to bet Filly Joel. This daughter of Dialed In ran like one that would appreciate more ground in her first couple of sprint starts, and she confirmed that was the case when she finally stretched out last time. She showed much better early speed in that 1 1/16-mile maiden event, and easily took over in the lane to register a decisive win. Her 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number in the field, and I don’t see any reason why she won’t be able to repeat it going this distance around two turns. In my opinion, she should be a close second choice around 5-2, and I think you’ll get a much better price than that. I also wouldn’t totally discount Positive Spirit. Rodolphe Brisset has very good numbers off maiden wins on the dirt (5 for 8, $5.05 ROI), but this filly needs to run much faster to contend here.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,5,6,7
RACE 6: PACIFIC WIND (#8)
Marley’s Freedom is obviously the class of this field, but I think it’s always wise to be somewhat skeptical of horses that are running back on relatively short rest after the Breeders’ Cup. While it’s fair to say that she might have won that Filly and Mare Sprint with a better trip, it’s not as if she was ever going to be a decisive winner over what was a pretty mediocre field. That was not the same Marley’s Freedom that we saw winning the Ballerina at Saratoga, and that is the crux of the problem with this filly. When she’s at her best, she’s brilliant, but we’ve only seen that version of her a couple of times. Furthermore, she has to stretch out in distance for the first time against a field with some quality runners. I’m not way against her, but I don’t see any value in picking her on top. There are a number of legitimate alternatives to consider. The scratch of Sower makes Come Dancing far more dangerous as the likely controlling speed. I'm not convinced that she's quite good enough to win this race, but she's a talented filly who has a right to lead these for a long way. I'm upgrading her, but my top pick is Pacific Wind. I’ll admit that I’ve never been the biggest fan of this filly, but I think her recent form is not quite as poor as it seems. She never had a fair chance in that Shuvee two back after the pace failed to materialize and she raced wide around the track. I thought she actually ran a decent race in the Spinster when she was a little too close to the pace going a distance that is likely too far for her. She ran the two best dirt races of her career going a flat mile back in the spring, and I think this turnback to a one-turn race suits her perfectly. There is supposed to be some pace for her to close into, and Irad Ortiz lands here despite seemingly having options on two others in this field.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 4,5,7
RACE 7: AXTELL (#9)
This is yet another highly competitive turf race that helps break up the stakes action on this card. It’s hard to discern who will be favored, or even which horses are the ones to fear, since you can make cases for almost every member of this field. I suppose Dr. Shane is one of the most reliable runners in this race, since he always shows up with an honest effort and has run fast enough to put him on the cusp of winning at this level. He clearly likes this Aqueduct turf course, and I think he’s a real danger here if he merely repeats his last race. He was chasing a fast pace that fell apart and hung in well to be fourth. I’m using him, but my top pick is another runner out of that Nov. 9 race. Axtell didn’t get the right trip that day, as he found himself too far back early and went very wide around the turn as his rider almost appeared to give up prematurely. Furthermore, he’s never been a horse that has cared for any give in a turf course, as all of his competitive efforts have come over firm going. Based on the one turf sprint we saw on Friday, the outer turf course is closer to firm than good, so it should be to Axtell’s liking. When this runner is at his best, he’s as talented as any member of this field, and he always gets overlooked due to the low-profile connections. He’s my top pick, but there are many others to consider. I wouldn’t totally dismiss Almithmaar, though this switch back to turf late in the season seems a bit desperate. I also think Adonis Creed is one of the more talented members of this field, but I have serious concerns about him handling the distance. Fear would be more appealing if he had run better in his first start off the claim, but he’s not impossible either.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,6,8,10,14
RACE 8: NETWORK EFFECT (#5)
This Remsen shapes up as a two-horse race between a pair of very talented colts. Maximus Mischief is one of the most intriguing two-year-olds in the country, and it’s great to see him trying to tackle a true test for the first time. Depending on which speed figures you use, he’s at best the fastest 2-year-old in the country and at worst a serious rival for Network Effect. The Beyer figures for his first two starts are astronomical – a little too high, in my opinion. I have some doubts about the legitimacy of both figures and would rather use the TimeformUS Speed Figures when making comparisons to other horses in this field. And that’s not to suggest that his TimeformUS Figures are slow. The 116 that he was assigned for his allowance win last time is still 1 point faster than Network Effect’s Nashua. The real question for Maximus Mischief is the distance. He’s a son of Into Mischief out of a Songandaprayer mare, so 1 1/8 miles may be a stretch. His dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Secret Compass, who could go at least 1 1/16 miles. Physically, he’s an imposing colt who appears to be fairly handy. Given the presence of fellow speed types like Gladiator King, he may have to sit off another rival and stalk for the first time. A colt as talented as Maximus Mischief may be able to overcome over that, but I’d much rather take Network Effect at what figures to be a similar price. Despite his modest pedigree, this Chad Brown trainee runs like 1 1/8 miles should be no problem at all. I liked his debut and I thought his runner-up effort in the Remsen was fairly encouraging. The race came up extremely fast, and he finished well clear of third-place finisher Call Paul, a graded stakes winner in his own right. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should only help his cause, and I just think he’s going to offer enough value at any price over 6-5.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 6 with 1,3,7
RACE 9: MENDELSSOHN (#1)
This may not be the best Cigar Mile field that we’ve ever seen, but it’s a competitive race with many intriguing contenders. I’ve become a fan of Mendelssohn over the course of this season, and I’m not going to abandon him now despite the fact that he’s likely to go off at a short price. Aidan O’Brien deserves high accolades for the job he’s done with this horse. He set out a plan to develop a successful dirt horse after a disappointment in the Kentucky Derby, and stuck to it through the fall. Some may hold his one-mile effort in the Dwyer against him, but you have to realize that was a mere stepping-stone to targets later in the season, so we did not see the best version of Mendelssohn that day. I thought he put in excellent runs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic, laying down fast fractions on both occasions. I’ve always thought 10 furlongs was a bit of a stretch for him, so this turnback may actually suit him and I don’t think the rail draw is any concern given the gate speed he’s shown recently. Many will consider Copper Town to be his main rival, and he is the wild card in this field. If he’s able to get back to his October 2017 victory over Patternrecognition, he’ll be a serious win candidate. However, I have to be skeptical of these Todd Pletcher horses trying to return to top form in their 4-year-old seasons, given how poorly many have run in recent months. The other horse I would want to use is Sunny Ridge, who beat a rail bias when he was second to Patternrecognition in the Kelso. He should get some pace to close into and is capable of running fast enough to be competitive here if he shows up with a top effort. At a much bigger price, I also want to include True Timber underneath in larger exotic wagers. This horse was shuffled out of position on the turn last time but had previously been in the best form of his career racing around one turn.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 5,6,8
RACE 10: LEM ME TEL YA (#2)
This finale is quite the puzzle. Perhaps it’s just as easy as defaulting to Quest for Fire, who will undoubtedly win this race if he runs as fast as he did in his debut effort on Mar. 18. While he was allowed to set a moderate pace for the distance, the speed figures came back extremely high. That said, it’s hard to know how much stock to put in those numbers. It was the first race on the card on a day when the main track was deep and seemingly changing throughout the afternoon. While Zonic, who finished second, is a decent horse, it’s not as if he provides concrete validation for Quest for Fire’s effort. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace in this race, which is incongruous with the blue color-coded pace figures showing in Quest for Fire’s debut. Early Pace Ratings indicate that he’s fast enough to make the lead anyway, but he’s going to have a slew of runners breathing down his neck early. That’s a tall order for any horse, especially one coming off a significant layoff. I’m somewhat against him, but I won’t be surprised when he wins. I have no major knocks against Charlie Baker’s other horse, Smokin Platinum. I know some will be deterred by the rider switch to Mike Luzzi, but this colt has run well in both of his starts since returning from a layoff in October. That said, he probably was supposed to win last time when he looked full of run approaching the stretch and just hung in the final eighth of a mile. If I’m going to take a horse out of that Nov. 9 race, it’s Lem Me Tel Ya. I realize that he appears to be a bit slower than some of his main rivals, but I think this horse fits the profile of this race very well. So many of these horses need to be placed on or near the lead to be successful, and Lem Me Tel Ya is one of the few that has been successful rallying from off the pace. I can excuse his effort two back against tougher open company foes, and last time I thought he was always out of position rating behind a moderate pace the held together. He, too, hung in the late stages, but he had a right to do so given how well the leaders were finishing. I think it’s the right move to take the blinkers off this time, and I like that Javier Castellano stays aboard.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,7,10,11