by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 6 - 5 - 9
Race 2:   4 - 9 - 7 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 4:   2 - 9 - 8 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 6:   1 - 9 - 8 - 2
Race 7:   12 - 5 - 8 - 9
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 9:   7 - 2 - 9 - 16

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: FRAT (#4)
There are three major players in this race, and who of them have only faced maiden special weight foes on turf. The most logical option and likely favorite is Scuttlebuzz, who has only raced on turf twice in his career, but has put forth his two best efforts in those races. He had a tough trip when he made his turf debut going this distance on June 14, nearly overcoming a slow start and wide trip to get there. He didn’t run quite as well going a mile at Saratoga, but he was facing a solid field and just hung in the late stages after making a far turn move. I think shorter is betting for him, but he will need to get some pace aid. Tercero earned a competitive speed figure in his lone prior turf start, despite the fact that he was going a distance that may be a little far for him. I suppose turning back and dropping in class could do the trick, but I didn’t feel like he did that much running in his turf race and he was supposed to win against a suspect off-the-turf field last time. I went in a different direction with Frat. This horse has plenty of experience in spots like this, and some may think he’s run out of chances. I actually think he’s been in the best form of his career lately, as he set a fast pace when second two back, and then ran exceptionally well last time. That November 6 race was run on a day when the turf was heavily biased towards rail runners, and he stalked two- to three-wide before getting run down by horses to his inside. If he maintains his current form, I think he can lead this field from gate to wire.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 7,9
Trifecta: 4 with 7,9 with 3,7,9,11,12
 

RACE 3: POWER UP PAYNTER (#3)
Likely favorite South Africa will attempt to achieve the rare feat of graduating right through all of his NY-bred conditions with three consecutive victories. This improving 3-year-old colt is versatile and consistent, running effectively on the front end and from just off the pace, as he did when winning his N1X condition last time. He benefited from his outside post that day, as he was able to gradually advance into the race in the clear, and now he could be under the gun from his inside draw with other speed drawn outside. However, he has more upside than most in this field, and was flattered when the horse he outdueled last time, Jerry the Nipper, returned to win impressive on Thursday. Given the amount of speed signed on, I think Power Up Paynter could work out the right trip. This horse is a bit of an enigma, as he’ll pop big speed figures from time to time, but doesn’t always run back to them. That said, he appears to have achieved a new level of consistency recently, as he’s run quite well in each of his last two starts. He closed resolutely to finish second behind the in-form Bustin Shout in that Oct. 16 off-the-turf race, which is proving to be a strong race. The 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for that performance holds up and makes him tough here. He wasn’t quite as effective last time, but he was facing a couple of tough rivals and didn’t get nearly as much pace to close into. If he maintains his current form and the pace develops as expected, I think he’s major win threat. I would also use some others out of that aforementioned Oct. 16 allowance, as Scilly Cay may have needed that start and third-place finisher Call Me Harry may have more dirt ability than it appears.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5 with 2,4,5,7,8
 

RACE 5: POLPIS (#3)
There are four major contenders in this NY-bred maiden claiming event. The most obvious of those is What’s My Category, who may go favored here after just missing by a nose in an off-the-turf maiden special weight race last month. While he ran fairly well that day, he was primarily facing a group of turf horses and the final time came up very slow for the level. His early speed makes him dangerous again, but I thought others were more interesting. Bowing Snowman has prior experience at this level, finishing second in both of his starts. While his debut was lackluster, he took a significant step forward last time, making a middle move to challenge for the lead prior to flattening out. I’ll use him, but there are a couple of maiden special weight dropdowns for the Jonathan Thomas barn to consider. Reunion Tour may attract more support as he cuts back in distance after failing to get a mile last time. However, I’m most interested in Polpis, who switches surfaces while dropping in class. This horse didn’t handle the turf at all, but at least he showed improved gate speed after blowing the break in his career debut. I like him getting back to the dirt, as he didn’t run that badly first time out. He was well back early after that poor start, but made a mild mid-race move. He lost by 23 lengths, but earned a decent speed figure in what was a fast race, while also finishing ahead of next-out winner Re Created.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7
 

RACE 6: WILD BANKER (#1)
The current version of Pier Forty is going to be difficult for this field to beat, as he has markedly improved while under the care of Orlando Noda. He especially ran well last time, making a sustained run from off the pace in a race that was dominated on the front end. A repeat of that performance will beat this field, but the Noda stable has cooled down a bit in the last month, so it wouldn’t exactly be a shock if this once unreliable runner regressed. The problem with finding alternatives in this race is that most of those with recent dirt form aren’t particularly compelling. I want to give a shot to some horses who are switching from turf to dirt. The obvious one is Elusive Ruler, whose recent turf form is solid enough. He definitely improved switching to grass earlier this year, but he ran fine in some dirt maiden races as a young horse. He’s on my tickets, but my top pick is Wild Banker. I’m not sure this horse really improved with the switch to turf as much as he may have just been a more mature racehorse when he returned this summer. He had been a solid dirt performer here last winter, running well in a series of maiden races before breaking through going this distance on Jan. 24. If he’s progressed since then, he’ll fit nicely against this field, and he figures to be a square price.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,8,9
 

RACE 7: VILLAINOUS (#12)
This race is a real skull buster. I had a torturous time coming up with a morning line, and settling on picks wasn’t much easier. I would imagine some of those with perceived upside are going to take money, such as the improving Dudley Square and visually impressive maiden winner Aasr. I’m not particularly interested in either of there, as I think there are others offering similar value who have stronger credentials. A supremely logical contender is Will Sing for Wine. This horse broke his maiden over this course and distance and he’s subtly improved in recent starts, running well behind Forza Di Oro and Adare in a stronger allowance race last time. He’s a deep closer, but the pace should be honest and Joel Rosario seems like a great fit. Others that I want use include Family Biz and Our Last Buck. The former makes plenty of sense after checking in a distant fourth behind the talented The Sound last time. He’s run well enough to be effective here in his last two starts. Our Last Buck may appear to be tailing off, but he probably doesn’t want to go 1 1/8 miles around two turns. He ran well to beat today’s rival Vintage Hollywood two back and has plenty of prior speed figures, including a few on fast going, that make him dangerous. Plus, he’ll be a price due to the negative rider switch. I’m using all three of those aforementioned contenders in some capacity, but I want to get a little more creative for my top pick. Villainous looks a little slower than some others in here, but he strikes me as a horse that is just coming into his own, having gotten some needed confidence boosts out of town. He came to hand initially at Finger Lakes, form that many will view with skepticism. Yet the speed figure he earned in the mud two back checks out. Then last time he won at Parx, another lesser circuit. However, he beat a solid field, including talented next-out winner Mr. Thrifty. Villainous had no right to be successful that day after blowing the start and losing contact on the far turn. Yet he kicked it into another gear late to just get up while closing into a slow pace. This colt had shown hints of talent from the start, and it appears that he’s finally putting it all together.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Box: 5,8,12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 6,9,10
 

RACE 9: Z’FINALE (#7)
If Unbridled John runs back to his effort on Oct. 18 when he lost a narrow decision to Pier Forty, he’s going to beat this field. However, it’s fair to wonder where that performance came from given his spotty surrounding form. In fairness, his last effort over a sloppy track was decent considering his involvement in the early pace, and it’s possible that he’s simply betting on fast going. That said, he’s going to be a short price as he gets a positive rider switch to Jose Lezcano, and he’s not exactly the kind of favorite I want. There are some viable alternatives in this race. One of those is Brickyard, who didn’t get a particularly savvy ride in his first start for the Jimmy Jerkens barn last time. There’s an argument that he could have won that race with a better trip, but that was a relatively weak field for the level. He’s interesting, but he still has to prove that he can get added distance. I’m instead taking a shot with Z’finale. This horse made one prior start on dirt when he was debuting for Chad Brown, and he just looked like one who needed a race. He was sluggish early, and made a brief move on the turn before getting eased to the wire. Since then he’s improved on turf despite not really being bred for that surface. He seems like a horse that may just be reaching his peak fitness, and now he’s dropping into a soft spot over a surface that he should handle.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,9,16