by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 7 - 9
Race 4: 3 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 11 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 9 - 7 - 4
Race 7: 1 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 12 - 8 - 13 - 10
Race 9: 12 - 2 - 6 - 11
RACE 2: CRUISE AND DANZE (#2)
Customerexperience is likely to be a prohibitive favorite in this race as she faces winners for the first time following a debut win. That victory came for Chad Brown in what has turned out to be a relatively strong maiden claiming event, out of which she was acquired by Linda Rice. This filly merely needs to hold her form to be considered a top win candidate, as she’s already run faster than many of her rivals. However, Rice is just 3 for 16 (19%, $1.10 ROI) first off the claim with last-out maiden winners on dirt, so it’s no certainty that she’s going to run back to her debut. I want to take a shot against her with Cruise and Danze. The Pace Projector is predicting that this filly will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and that could make her dangerous. She was hindered by a poor start in her debut, but she came right back second time out to win in gate-to-wire fashion, earning a 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number compares favorably to the 88 that Customerexperience earned first time out and gives her a big chance to beat this field. Cruise and Danze did disappoint when stepped up to face stakes company last time, but that race featured a very fast pace that fell apart. She figures to get a better setup here and we saw her trainer successful ship in the Remsen winner last weekend. Compensate is another who figures to take some money and she is an intriguing new face for Mark Casse. However, she has more of a turf pedigree on the dam’s side, so I’m skeptical if dirt will prove to be her preferred surface.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 3: LOVE THAT JAZZ (#4)
Business Cycle is probably deserving of the favorite’s role in this spot as he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Falcone, who does very well with this move. However, he’s getting this horse from two of the top trainers on the grounds, as Rob Atras and Chad Brown had this horse previously. He stepped out of conditioned company to try an open claimer last time and he earned his typical speed figure. However, he was no match for winner Data Driven while barely able to hold off the seemingly inferior third place finisher Sandy Lane. Now he’s dropping again down to the $8,000 level, which probably isn’t a great sign first off the claim. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t think you’re supposed to accept a short price on this lightly-raced 6-year-old. I’m trying to beat him with Finger Lakes shipper Love That Jazz. While this guy has achieved the majority of his success at Finger Lakes recently, he has been competitive on the NYRA circuit in the past, most recently when he made a couple of starts at Saratoga this summer, both of which came against tougher company. Some may be deterred by his poor performance last time, but it’s worth watching that race as he had a nightmare of a trip. He was off slowly and then ridden into traffic before having to steady multiple times. The speed figures that he earned two and three back put him in the mix and he possesses the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip in this spot.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,7,9
RACE 4: DANNY CALIFORNIA (#3)
I’m not trying to beat Danny California, who figures to be favored here. This gelding would be pretty formidable if able to run back to his Oct. 20 triumph, in which he beat claimers by over nine lengths. On the surface of things, it might appear he’s regressed since the claim by Orlando Noda, but he’s actually been a victim of circumstances. Two back he was badly compromised by a slow pace during a time when kickback was hindering closers. Then last time he was unwisely placed on the rail behind two longshots heading into the far turn, and was forced to lose momentum before coming on again. He’s just very logical while facing a slightly softer field and would benefit from a more aggressive ride. His main rival appears to be Joe’s Smokin Gun. This horse is hard to take based on the form prior to his last race, since he has been outclassed at this level a number of times in the past and has struggled to even win claiming races. He did show improvement last time in a race that came up very fast, but that figure needs to be validated. More importantly, Rudy Rodriguez is a remarkable 30 for 71 (42%, $2.67 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct over the last five years. With numbers like that, how much does the prior form really matter? The other runner I would use is Ten Twenty Nine. He’s done well to win four races this year after coming into the season with a 1 for 25 record, and he has continued to get better since the claim by Chris Englehart. He’s run well over the NYRA circuit in the past and this one-turn mile distance is ideal for him. I’ll throw him in underneath.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 6,7 with 1,4,5,6,7
RACE 6: HIZAAM (#6)
It’s difficult to know how the public will approach this race since there are a number of contenders, most of which are difficult to compare as they come out of different spots. I suppose Super Silver is the most trustworthy option, since he’s competed well at this level in recent starts. He was simply beaten by a better horse last time, but he nevertheless ran well to be second after contesting an honest pace going this distance. The outside post position seems ideal for him given some other speed drawn to the inside, and he merits respect. Rudy Rodriguez has a pair of starters in this race, of which Traveling seems like the more intriguing option. He ran a competitive speed figure when beating claiming foes at Churchill Downs last time and would be a major factor here with a repeat of that effort. Furthermore, he handled a sloppy track that day and there is rain in the forecast ahead of Saturday. However, he’s been somewhat inconsistent and he’ll have to run faster in the early going if he’s to make the lead over this field. My top pick is Hizaam, who makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He had shown good form for the Chad Brown barn in his prior starts, running well against some solid rivals in maiden and allowance company before dropping in for a tag last time. He has to do better than that last TimeformUS Speed Figure of 98 to beat this field, but he didn’t get an ideal trip that day and appears to have room for improvement. Notably, Linda Rice is a remarkable 19 for 47 (40%, $2.56 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct, so improvement seems likely.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7,9
Trifecta: 6 with 7,9 with 4,5,7,8,9
RACE 8: GIANT SHOES (#12)
I have no argument with anyone who asserts that Dream Bigger and Captain Bombastic are the two most likely winners of this race. They’re the only two stakes winners in the field and they’ve run slightly faster than most of their opponents. However, there are some intriguing new faces in this bunch and both of the top two choices have to work out trips in this large 14-runner field. Dream Bigger figures to be a decisive favorite over his main rival as he seeks his third consecutive victory. If he merely holds his form, he’s going to be tough to beat, but there are some obstacles. He should once again receive pace pressure from the speedy Moonachie and there are some other speeds drawn to the inside. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could help set things up for Captain Bombastic’s late run. Furthermore, Captain Bombastic seems more likely to handle this seven-furlong distance since he’s already won going a mile. Some may take it as a negative sign that he hasn’t started in nearly two months leading up to this race, but one would imagine Jeremiah Englehart has been pointing to this lucrative affair. Captain Bombastic has gotten good trips in both career starts, but he has nevertheless shown grit and determination in both victories. I’m using the two favorites, but I’m intrigued by debut winner Giant Shoes. I know this horse was entered for turf first time, but he actually has more of a dirt pedigree and he took to the surface quite well. He broke well but greenly dropped back on the backstretch before coming on again with long strides though the lane. He clearly had no trouble handling a sloppy track, and he may encounter a similar surface on Saturday. Furthermore, Brad Cox is 17 for 41 (41%, $2.82 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts on dirt over the past five years.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 8,13
Trifecta: 12 with 8,13 with 4,8,9,10,13