by David Aragona
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Race 1: 10 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 2: 3 - 8 - 6 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 10 - 4 - 9 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 9 - 2
Race 7: 9 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 3 - 9
Race 9: 8 - 10 - 4 - 6
RACE 5: TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR (#1)
New Year’s Wish is a deserving favorite in this race as she drops in for a tag for the first time. I generally don’t like when Linda Rice gives up on horses like this, but this filly is probably just running where she belongs at this point in her career. She showed great promise in her debut earlier this year, but it’s been a downhill slide ever since then. She showed some signs of life in her return at Laurel last time, but she still stopped badly in the final eighth going a shorter distance than she has to negotiate today. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, but I still don’t fully trust her. The problem with this race is that the more logical alternatives are not terribly appealing. Votre Coeur ran reasonably well in her return last time, but she was very much with the flow of the track on a day when you did not want to be stuck inside. Given that situation, I’m willing to give Trouble for Skylar another chance as she exits a poor effort in that same Nov. 16 race. She was guided down to the rail on the turn in an attempt to cut the corner into the stretch, but that was exactly where you did not want to be. She understandably faded in the late stages. Now she returns at a similar level, and I think she has a right to run much better in her second start off the layoff. She has a few back efforts that would give her a chance here and she now adds blinkers, which is a good move for this barn.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 7: MORNING BREEZ (#9)
With the scratch of Benevolence, Candid Desire is likely to go off as the favorite. This runner is an intriguing prospect as he drops back in for a tag in his second start for the Jason Servis barn. He was claimed out of a race at this level in August, and the new connections got pretty aggressive right off the bat, running him against the best New York-bred sprinters in the Hudson. Not only was he overmatched, but the race didn’t set up for him as the pace failed to develop. Now he’s back at the right class level, but it’s hard to know what we’re going to get from a horse that produced a career-best effort out of nowhere in June and has failed to match that performance since. Furthermore, there is rain in the forecast and he is notoriously hindered by any moisture in the track. One of the most noteworthy aspects of this race is the lack of early speed, and I think that could make Morning Breez particularly dangerous. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and Morning Breez is just faster than everyone else in the early going. He ran better than it seems two back, as he chased a fast pace that collapsed when finishing behind Benevolence, and I was very encouraged by his turf experiment last time. I just think this horse is in great form right now, and he’s likely to work out a perfect trip. At a much bigger price, I also want to throw in Arthur's Hope. This horse reared at the start last time and lost all chance. However, he actually still ran quite well within the context of that race, making a premature move into contention before faltering. He had previously faced significantly tougher company and is now getting the class relief that he needs.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 9 with 3,6 with 2,3,4,5,6
RACE 8: HONOR UP (#5)
This is one of the most intriguing races of the day, as there are many ways to go. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should help likely favorite Have Another. This horse has lost three times at this level since being claimed by Ed Barker, but he’s performed admirably in each of those starts. His biggest problem has been pace, since his last two races in particular have featured slow paces that have hindered his late runs. He’s coming back off a layoff with a significant gap in his worktab, and that’s a concern for a horse who has probably had some physical issues. However, if he shows up with a good effort, he’s going to be a handful. Royal Asset has to be taken seriously off his last effort, in which he turned away a series of challengers to win an off-the-turf race in very fast time. At his best, he’s good enough to beat this field, but he’s going to have to overcome a tussle for the early lead this time. Allured may garner some support following his maiden victory, but I’m not sure that I love the turnback in distance for him. Aveenu Malcainu is another horse that usually is popular at the windows, but I think his win two back was partly a function of favorable pace dynamics. I need to see it again to believe it. Given my reservations about so many contenders, I want to take a shot with Honor Up. This horse has to prove that he can win going the shortest distance that he’s attempted all season, but I think he may fit this race very well. He ran well in a tough allowance race last time while stalking the pace, and winner Stan the Man returned to run surprisingly well in the Cigar Mile earlier this month. Honor Up has displayed some versatility and should have no problems coming from farther off the pace this time. Michelle Nevin appears to have gotten him back into top form after a series of disappointments for the Bill Mott barn. He may be one of the better prices among those with encouraging recent form.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7,9