PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   3 - 10 - 5 - 8
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 1 - 6 - 12
Race 5:   8 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   9 - 4 - 11 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   5 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 9:   2 - 3 - 8 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: DERVAL (#3)
This Bird Can Sing was installed as the morning-line favorite, and she probably will go off as such. Her first start against winners last time was fine, but the published running line makes it seem like she put in a stronger effort in the final eighth than was truly the case. The leader was basically stopping in the late stages, and This Bird Can Sing was actually passed by the eventual winner while barely getting up for second. She can win here, but the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so she may have to work hard to catch and put away the early leaders. I’ll use her, but my top pick is Derval. This filly just broke her maiden, but I think she finds herself in a spot where she can win right back. The pace projection favors horses with a closing style, and she came with a strong late run to get up to win last time. She was facing a slightly tougher field two back, and prior to that had been facing tougher company sprinting, or was running distances that were too far for her. I think she’s found a home at this level, and she’s going to get the right setup.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,8,10

RACE 3: TASTEFUL (#5)
Boule is clearly the horse to beat based on her overall body of work on the dirt. However, I don’t trust her. I don’t like the way she’s finished off her two races going a mile or farther, and I’m not convinced that she really wants to go this far. Her most recent loss at 3-5 odds was inexcusable in my eyes, so I’m looking for an alternative here. I’m hoping that there’s a more taxing early pace than the Pace Projector suggests, which seems possible given the presence of two speeds, Full House and Town Tart. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with closer Tasteful. I realize that she’s never gone this far on the dirt, but she’s certainly bred to handle the distance, as a half-sister to Nashua winner Avery Island. Her more recent dirt efforts seem disappointing, but she’s had minor excuses in those races. She may not have cared for a wet track two back when compromised by a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), and prior to that, on Aug. 6, she encountered a speed-favoring surface at Saratoga.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2 with ALL

RACE 7: VALYRIAN (#4)
I have no major knocks against Gorelli. He’s had more chances than some others in this race, but he’s getting some needed class relief as he drops in for a tag for the first time since graduating from the maiden ranks. He’s the horse to beat, but he’s probably going to go off as the favorite in this race given his competitive speed figures and H. James Bond’s recent success on this circuit. I’m using him, but I want to bet Valyrian at a slightly better price. This horse has been keeping even tougher company than Gorelli in his recent starts, and has actually run better than it seems in a few of those races. Last time, he was setting a fast pace that collapsed going seven furlongs, and earned a competitive TimeformUS Speed Figure of 101, even while losing by 17 lengths. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He figures to appreciate this drop in class, and I think he has a real chance to lead this field wire to wire.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,7,8