PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 2:   7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   8 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 3 - 10
Race 8:   5 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: LEDDY (#7)

Linda Rice has entered a pair of runners in this N1X allowance. Scilly Cay (#6) is the one who looks more immediately appealing off his third-place finish against starter allowance foes last month. He met a very good rival that day in Greeley and Ben, who returned to win the Fall Highweight in his subsequent start. However, the runner-up came back to regress and I wonder if that race may be a little overrated. I also find it interesting that Rice’s top stable jockey Jose Lezcano lands on her other entrant Leddy (#7) after riding both runners in their most recent starts. Leddy disappointed when he tried this level last time, but I didn’t think he got the best trip that day. He came on the track wearing front bandages for the first time (something to note on Saturday) and just seemed to react badly to drawing the inside post position. He failed to attain a forward position early and just steadily got shuffled back along the inside. He then had trouble straightening out when attempting to run through kickback in upper stretch. All things considered he didn’t run that badly, and I find it encouraging that Rice is opting not to drop him in class. He seems like a horse who does better racing outside of rivals, so this wide draw should suit him much better. He’s my top pick, but there are some others to consider. Digital Future (#3)would obviously be a serious threat if he ran back to his last performance, where he dominated a group of starter allowance foes. He clearly has some dirt ability and is thriving in the Ray Handal barn, but he could have a tougher trip coming his way with more speed signed on here. Handsome Cat (#2) is a bit more intriguing to me, as he makes his second start off the claim for David Jacobson. He was game to rally for the victory at Penn National last time. I also wouldn’t put much stock in his prior effort at Los Alamitos, since he completely botched the start, leaving the gate about 5 lengths behind the field. He’s capable on his best day and will appreciate any pace that develops up front.

WIN: #7 Leddy, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 3: VENTI VALENTINE (#5)

I’m not really against heavy favorite Let Her Inspire U (#6), who is obviously the horse to beat. She’s a half-length short of having won 5 races in a row and has shown no distance limitations despite having more of a sprint-oriented pedigree. She’ll be very tough for this field to handle if she merely repeats her Empire Distaff effort, where she beat a better field convincingly. I just haven’t been her biggest fan and have to take one more shot against her with Venti Valentine (#5). She’s the one horse in this race with the class to seriously challenge the favorite, and I think she may be rounding into form. She obviously was no match for Let Her Inspire U in the Fleet Indian, but she’s proven that she wants no part of 9 furlongs. Then last time in the Iroquois, she never had a chance to make an impact. She was just stuck on the rail in an awkward position early in the race, got shuffled back in some traffic on the turn, and could never recover over a speed-favoring track. She’s clearly capable of better and has a chance to rebound here over her preferred one-mile trip.

WIN: #5 Venti Valentine, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5: TWELTH MAN (#7)

Sheriff Bianco (#6) has been a revelation for his connections since switching back over to dirt. He had been a decent horse on the turf, but he’s taken his game to the next level ever since he got rained off the turf onto the main track two back. He won that race by nearly 12 lengths, but was beating overmatched rivals. That wasn’t the case last time, as he lined up against a pretty strong New York-bred N2X field, and he again put in a dominating performance, drawing off to win by over 5 lengths. His TimeformUS Speed Figure of 118 for that effort would make him virtually untouchable here if he were to repeat it. Though he is now stepping up again. He also lands in a race that features much more early speed than he encountered in his last couple of starts, so he may have to rally from farther off the pace than he’s accustomed. Among those speeds, Vidal (#4) seems like the biggest threat. He first came to these connections under the supervision of since banned trainer Penny Pearce, for whom he ran a couple of vastly improved speed figures. Switched into a new barn, he regressed slightly, and notably broke slowly in each of his last tow starts. Now he’s again with a new trainer, and another tardy start could be a big problem for him here. Though he does have the talent to be a factor on his best day. I’m hoping this race comes apart for Twelth Man (#7). He hasn’t run as fast as some others in here, but he does seem to put forth his best efforts when he’s fresh off a layoff. He ran a career-best speed figure when he returned from a layoff in October 2020, and then put in a good effort when he returned from a similar break in 2021. He shows a steady worktab for this return, and it’s encouraging that Michelle Nevin doesn’t drop him in class, even though he’s run for a tag before. I’m confident he’ll come running late and the price should be fair enough.

WIN: #7 Twelth Man, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6: TAPIT TRICE (#3)

Two runners exiting the Nov. 6 maiden race at this level figure to attract plenty of support here. Summer Cause (#2)achieved the better result, despite failing to take much money in his debut. He ran a pretty professional race for a newcomer, quickly getting into a stalking position and making a far turn move to briefly challenge the leader before settling for second. He’s a good-looking colt who appears to have some real ability, but I prefer Tapit Trice (#3). He finished behind Summer Cause in his debut, but arguably ran just as well as that foe. He got away to a tardy start, but advanced willingly into the far turn despite racing in heavy traffic. He ultimately found room between horses in the stretch, lengthening his stride nicely once in the clear. He then proceeded to gallop out past the top two soon after the wire. This expensive son of Tapit could be a potential stakes horse for next year if he continues developing. He has the pedigree to back him, being out of a 3/4-sister to BC Juvenile Fillies winner Jaywalk. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher is 24 for 61 (39%, $2.15 ROI) with maiden second time starters making their second route attempt on dirt over the past 5 years. I also have some interest in another second time starter, Slip Mahoney (#6), who stretches out in distance. He did well to make a few moves during his debut and only hit his best stride late after switching leads in mid-stretch. He seems like one that is cut out to relish more ground, by Arrogate out of the Grade 1 Spinster winner Got Lucky. Brad Cox can sometimes get overbet in these situations, but I expect this horse to take a step forward.

WIN: #3 Tapit Trice, at 7-5 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 9: BUSTINO SANTINO (#2)

The main source of value in this Great White Way division of the NYSS is to play against Vacation Dance (#11). He figures to vie for favoritism off a couple of superior turf efforts, but he’s never run on dirt before and has more of a grass pedigree on the dam’s side. I just never want to take horses like this at short prices, and his presence will drive up the odds on a few others. Jackson Heights (#1) is probably the horse to beat off his victory at this distance in the Bertram F. Bongard. He was a huge price that day off mediocre form coming in, and didn’t exactly run to the same level in the Sleepy Hollow next time out. That said, he was somewhat compromised by a slow pace last time, and he appears to find himself in a more favorable situation here. I’m not against him, but I do think there are a few maidens in this field who have real chances to be effective at better prices. My top pick is second time starter Bustino Santino (#2). This gelding by Bustin Stones took money to be 6-1 on debut and showed ability despite completely blowing the start. He broke a step slowly and was bumped hard between horses, putting him far behind the field in the early going. He didn’t get to do any serious running until the stretch, but put in a nice late rally to get up for third when asked. His dam was a router, so I don’t mind the slight stretch-out in distance. He also isn’t catching the toughest field for this kind of race, so I don’t mind the step up in class. The other maiden that I want to use is Zapruder (#5). He’s wheeling back on short rest after competing just 9 days ago, but I thought he showed that dirt might be his preferred surface that day. This horse had hinted at having some ability in his turf debut when he only hit his best stride in the last quarter mile after racing greenly. He was again unprofessional in his second start, but I liked the way he made up ground on the turn before flattening out late. He now gets blinkers and will appreciate any pace that develops.

WIN: #2 Bustino Santino, at 4-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Zapruder, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 10: CHASIN’ YOU (#3)

There isn’t much going on in this finale, as even those who figure to take money haven’t shown much on the racetrack. Joyful Ghost (#4) could go favored by default as a second time starter for Linda Rice. He showed very little in his debut on turf and this subsequent drop in for a tag as he tries dirt doesn’t seem like a great sign. That said, he is getting significant class relief and must be considered. I also think Weyhill Farm R. (#8) deserves a look as he drops in class out of the maiden special weight ranks. He didn't do much running in his only dirt start, but it came against a much tougher field, and now he's switching into the barn of Rob Atras. My top pick at what figures to be a better price is Chasin’ You (#3). Though it’s not noted in the short comment line, he broke through the starting gate prior to the race last time, and ran off for about a furlong. He was reloaded and participated anyway, but didn’t even get a good trip once they sprung the latch. He lacked early speed, but advanced willingly on the turn and seemingly was about to mount a rally in upper stretch before getting bumped hard and squeezed back in traffic. I think he’s better than that and should fare better in this second attempt on dirt for an underrated trainer.

WIN: #3 Chasin' You, at 7-2 or greater