by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   9 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 9 - 2 - 8
Race 6:   7 - 10 - 3 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 7 - 10 - 8
Race 8:   10 - 11 - 9 - 5
Race 9:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 10:   11 - 2 - 4 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: VALLARAND (#2)
Blame It On Mary is obviously the horse to beat as she drops out of stakes company back into this maiden race against her own sex. She ran well to just miss in her second start at Finger Lakes and understandably tired against males last time when overhauled by superior rivals Blue Gator and Thin White Duke. This is the right kind of spot for her from a class standpoint, but she will have to get the 6 1/2 furlongs, and she hasn’t exactly looked like she’s asking for more ground in her recent starts. I’m using her, but I think some others have more upside. Get the Candy figure to attract some support as she switches to dirt, but her pedigree on the dam’s side is a little more turf-oriented, so I’m somewhat skeptical. My top pick is another second time starter, Vallarand. This filly took some sneaky money in her debut, getting bet down to 9-2 in the face of well-meant first-out winner Vacay, who returned to win a stakes in her next start. She broke with the field, but got steadied back to sixth soon after the start and then couldn’t make up ground in a race that featured a relatively slow pace. She should be fitter with that start under her belt, and Charlton Baker typically gets horses to improve with racing.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,7
 

RACE 3: FAIR LASSIE (#9)
What are we supposed to do with likely favorite Invaluable? Based on her class and recent speed figures she’s a total standout in this field. However, she’s accomplished all of her success going longer distances than this, and now she’s being asked to cut all the way back to 6 furlongs. She’s finished in the exacta in five consecutive starts, but she’s had pretty favorable pace scenarios in all of those races. That was especially true two back when she nearly beat subsequent G3 Comely winner Mrs. Danvers, and she again got away with soft early fractions when facing males at this level last time. That most recent performance came just 16 days ago, and now she lands in a spot where she’s unlikely to make the early lead given all the other speed signed on. I’ll use her, but she’s hard for me to endorse at a short price. The obvious alternatives are Halama and Sirenic. The former comes off a claiming win at Churchill Downs last time where she just ran a field off its feet. She has to get a little faster to beat today’s rivals and she also is somewhat unreliable given her inconsistent prior form. Sirenic is moving up in class after closing to be second against $20k claimers last time. While she ran well within the context of that race, she was helped by staying out of the kickback in the center of the track. If I’m going to take a horse out of that race, I’d rather it be Fair Lassie at a much more generous price. Whereas Sirenic was closing outside, Fair Lassie was making a run up the rail while racing through substantial kickback on a day when that seemed to be a real issue. This filly seems to have raised her game recently, as she ran a career-best 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure when winning two back, and last time ran better than it appears. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Karl Broberg, who is due to have some success with this New York runners.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,7
 

RACE 6: MONTAUK TRAFFIC (#7)
Following the scratch of Happy Farm, Cost Basis looks like the probable favorite. He’s the only horse in this 13-runner affair who is coming off a victory, having just won his N1X condition at Belmont in the slop. While he ran well that day to overhaul the speedy Foolish Ghost, he is taking a big step up in class here. He certainly has the potential to win again, but I’m not sure that I’d want to accept a relatively short price on him. I prefer another 3-year-old, Montauk Traffic. This grey colt showed promise over the winter last year, breaking his maiden impressively before closing from last-to-first to take down the Jimmy Winkfield. He also wasn’t disgraced when meeting tougher foes in the Gotham, making a solid run from far back to get up for fourth. His top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 108 is a little light for this field, but it’s higher than Cost Basis’s best number and at least this horse still has room for improvement now as a more mature 3-year-old. Deep closers like this are always at the mercy of pace, but there should be plenty of that in here with speedy runners like Chateau and Inter Miami signed on. The other horse that I want to get into the mix underneath is Vici. His recent form on turf leaves something to be desired, but he’s actually just as talented on dirt. He ran some impressive dirt speed figures for David Donk when he initially appeared in his barn last year, and would be tough if he can get back to those races.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,10
Trifecta: 7 with 3,10 with 1,2,3,5,8,10
 

RACE 8: RUVIES IN TIME (#10)
Eloquent Speaker may go favored as she returns from a brief layoff since the summer. She ran well in both starts at Saratoga, just unable to get the distance on July 22 before setting a very fast pace that fell apart in August. A repeat of any of those performances will make her tough for this field to handle, but you do have to wonder what kept her away from the races for this period. Furthermore, there is other speed in this race, as Lune Lake figures to be sent aggressively to the front by Kendrick Carmouche. I’m certainly using Eloquent Speaker, but I think others could offer better value. I do still prefer her to some other short prices like Snicket, who may take money after breaking her maiden here last month. I’m instead interested in a bigger price. Ruvies in Time deserves another chance at this level after getting the wrong trip last time. She was unfortunately to draw the rail on Nov. 27, a day when it seemed especially difficult to race through kickback. Her rider was unaggressive away from the start and she was always out of position, getting shuffled back around the far turn coming to the quarter pole. All things considered, she did well to rally for fourth, running a much better race than Honey Money, who had no excuse while finishing just three lengths ahead of her. This time Ruvies in Time figures to get a more comfortable outside stalking trip, and I think she’ll be dangerous if she gets back to her performances from this fall at Belmont.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,8,9,11
 

RACE 10: THE CARETAKER (#11)
Rudy Rodriguez and Linda Rice both have coupled entries that could attract support, but I don’t find any of the horses who comprise those pairings to be particularly appealing in this spot. I instead want to focus on The Caretaker, who returns at this level once again after getting beaten as the favorite in a similar spot in November. Some might be discouraged by that performance, but I thought he got the wrong trip that day. After breaking well Jose Lezcano allowed him to drop back off the pace slightly, as is this runner’s custom. However, he ended up getting shuffled back along the inside, winding up behind a pair of runners who were in the midst of backing up through the field. Due to that early decision, he ended up getting shuffled back out a stalking spot into nearly last-place by the time the field reached the quarter pole. All things considered, he did well to re-rally for fourth but he never had a chance to win from there. Now he’s been claimed back by Tom Morley and the same connections who previously had him when he was in good form during the first half of the year. There are some questions for him to answer, but I think his overall form is much stronger than it seems and he figures to get the right pace setup here with speeds like Almendro and Dark Money in the field.

Win: 11
Trifecta: 11 with 2,4,5 with 1,2,4,5,8,10