by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 8 - 10 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 1/1A - 9 - 7
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 8 - 9 - 10 - 12
Race 8: 7 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 9: 2 - 3 - 7 - 10
Race 10: 2 - 8 - 6 - 4
RACE 4: LUNE LAKE (#6)
I'm just not thrilled with the horses that come into this race with prior turf experience. Nazay ran a respectable third last time, but I'm not convinced that she was beating much that day. A few of the first-time-starters have pedigrees that suggest they should handle this surface, including Martini Momma, a half-sister to turf stakes winner Hangover Kid. I'll include her in my wagers, but the runner that I want to get at a bigger price is first-time-turfer Lune Lake. This daughter of Teuflesburg was only facing maiden claiming company in her debut, but I thought she put in a decent late run after racing sluggishly through the early going. She's certainly bred to handle this surface switch. Teuflesburg wins with 13 percent of his turf sprint starters, and her Rahy-sired dam is out of Nicole's Dream, a multiple turf sprint stakes winner who earned over $800,000 during her career.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7,12
RACE 5: GUCCI FACTOR (#5)
What do you do with Follow the Signs, the morning line favorite in this race? If he repeats his maiden score, in which he earned a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure and won off by over 11 lengths, he is going to be awfully tough for this field to handle. However, it's now been exactly three months since that race, and he's making his first start for a new barn. There are some major question marks, and I don't want him at a short price. One of his main rivals is Minsky Moment, who finished second to next-out winner Red Knight in his turf debut last time. He was held up in traffic in upper stretch that day, and had to alter course again at the sixteenth pole. All things considered, he ran on willingly and has a right to improve off that effort. On the other hand, he's now lost at short prices three times in a row, and he's going to take money once again. Therefore, I want to take a shot against both of these horses with Gucci Factor. I know that he's been more of a dirt horse so far during his career, but his lone turf start is worth revisiting. It was his career debut, and he just didn't really seem to know what he was doing out there. That race featured a slow pace and was dominated on the front end, so I think we should be forgiving of the effort. He's certainly bred to handle turf. Furthermore, he needs to be placed up close to the early pace to run well, and that should be the case here, as he figures to stalk River Knight in the early going. Christophe Clement gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with horses switching from dirt to turf.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,8
RACE 6: FLORA DORA (#6)
If I was confident that Highway Star would bring her very best effort on Saturday, I wouldn't be picking against her. When she's in form, she’s awfully hard to beat. However, I'm just not sure what we're going to get from her as she returns from her trip to California, which resulted in an uncharacteristically dull run in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. I’m a big fan, but I think this is probably the time to take a shot against her, and there are plenty of viable alternatives. The one that most people will gravitate towards is Jamyson 'n Ginger, who earned an impressive speed figure when beating allowance company at this distance last month. She's taken a while to regain top form this year, but she seems to be doing well now. I'll use her, but I'm most interested in a different horse coming out of that same race. Flora Dora did not run particularly well on Nov. 9, finishing a grinding fourth behind Jamyson 'n Ginger. Yet I think there's reason to believe that she can improve significantly out of that effort. It was her first start in about five months, and her lone prior race this year was a much better performance that it seems at first glance. She got absolutely no pace to close into in the Bed O' Roses back in June (note the blue color-coded fractions in PPs), yet she still came with a solid late rally to get up for fourth. Since her return, she recorded a blazingly fast 45 2/5-second half-mile drill at Belmont, indicating that she may be much fitter now. If Mike Luzzi keeps her relatively close to the early pace, she could make her presence felt in the lane at a big price.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 1,2,5 with 1,2,5,7 with 6
RACE 7: BARREL OF DESTINY (#8)
The first leg in this late Pick-4 is treacherous. I don't trust any of the shorter prices on the morning line, most of whom have been merely mediocre in their turf races. You have to use horses like Staw Hat and Stonefactor, but I'm not convinced that they will be able to beat a well-meant firster or a first-time-turfer that really takes to this surface. I'm going to go with a horse in the latter category. Barrel of Destiny showed absolutely nothing in her dirt debut, but she looks like a horse that is really meant for grass. Her dam was primarily a turf sprinter, winning twice on this surface, and that dam is a half-sister to talented turf runners Barrel of Dreams and Barrel of Love. The low-profile connections will drive up the price.
Win/Place: 8
RACE 8: LAYLA NOOR (#7)
I don't have any major issues with the two favorites in this race, Daisy and Wonder Gadot. The former was an impressive winner of the Tempted in her prep for this race, turning back a stretch bid to draw away to an impressive score. She wasn't beating much that day, but she did it in reasonably fast time and is bred to keep improving with added ground. Wonder Gadot put forth a respectable showing in the Breeders' Cup, overcoming trouble both early and late to finish a closing sixth. She at least showed that she handles dirt and must be taken seriously in this easier spot. That said, these fillies are going to be very short prices, and I think there are others stepping up in class who can issue serious challenges to the favorites. The one who interests me most is Layla Noor. She won her maiden on turf at Saratoga and followed that up with a solid fourth-place finish behind eventual Breeders' Cup winner Rushing Fall at Keeneland. She's clearly done her best running on grass, but I think her last race suggests that she may have a future racing on dirt. The main track at Laurel was favoring outside closers on the day she won that allowance race, so she overcame the track profile when rallying up the rail to win. I really liked the way she finished off that race even though it came against a much weaker group. Her dam could run all day, winning stakes going as far as 12 furlongs on turf, and it seems that Layla Noor has inherited that stamina. She figures to love every bit of this nine-furlong test.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,5,6
RACE 9: TRIPLE DOG DARE (#2)
I don't want to take too strong of a stand against Avery Island because I do think this horse is pretty talented, and he's bred to keep improving with added distance. However, I cannot deny that he's had perfect setups in his two wins, which were both accomplished over mildly speed-favoring surfaces after he set modest early fractions. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could soften him up for the late runners. The two closers who interest me both come out of the same race – and they're still maidens. Alkhataam is the one likely to take more money as he makes just his second career start for Chad Brown. I'll use him, but I prefer the runner who finished just ahead of him last time. Triple Dog Dare has been a little green through his first couple of starts, but he's already shown that he possesses plenty of talent. He completely blew the break in his debut, spotting the field some five lengths, and he actually did well to pass as many horses as he did behind runaway winner Montauk. Then last time, he ran a much more professional race, but he still seemed a little unfocused. He lost momentum coming to the top of the stretch but seemed to battle on once he felt Alkhataam's presence to his outside at the eighth pole. I don't see any reason why he would have trouble stretching out to two turns, and Rudy Rodriguez's barn has been on fire in recent weeks at this meet.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,7,10
Trifecta: 2 with 3,7,10 with 3,4,5,7,8,10
RACE 10: SEYMOURDINI (#2)
The two main players in this race both exit the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, which was run around two turns at Del Mar. Even though there appeared to be plenty of speed signed on for that race, the expected fast pace never materialized, and eventual runner-up Sharp Azteca was able to set fairly moderate fractions on the front end. While he did have that part of the race go his way, he was racing down inside for much of his trip, which was not the place to be on Breeders' Cup Friday or Saturday. Practical Joke was also racing down inside after crossing over from his outside post position, though he did swing outside for the stretch drive. What hindered him was the relatively moderate pace, and that the Dirt Mile was run around two turns. Practical Joke has never won a race in that situation but is undefeated in five starts around one turn. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace here, as Americanize could prove to be a thorn in the side of Sharp Azteca in the early going, and that may set the table for Practical Joke's late run. I think he's the horse to beat, but the horse I want to bet is Seymourdini. This colt had ascended to a new level earlier this year, winning three straight races by 10 lengths or more, and topped it off with a massive 135 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the State Dinner at Belmont. He went to the sidelines after that and returned in the Bold Ruler at Belmont. He finished fourth but ran much better than the running line suggests, as he lost focus on the turn but then rallied strongly through the lane. The one-mile distance of this race should be much more to his liking and should allow him to get a more comfortable stalking trip. If the real Seymourdini shows up here, even horses as good as Sharp Azteca and Practical Joke could be in for a scare.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6,8,10
Trifecta: 2 with 4,6,8 with 1,4,6,8,10