by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 1A - 4 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 6: 7 - 13 - 9 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 10 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 9 - 3
RACE 3: FALSE ALARM (#6)
Power Up Paynter figures to be a prohibitive favorite in this spot, but I don’t think he looks quite as formidable when you really dig into his form. This horse has been intended for turf all along, and he’s only run on dirt at all because he’s gotten rained off twice. While he hasn’t been totally embarrassed in either dirt start, he’s clearly run better on the turf. Some may argue that he’s still the horse to beat if he merely repeats his last effort on the main track, but that was accomplished over a sloppy, sealed surfaces, and he’s going to have to deal with a fast track on Saturday. I’m using him defensively, but I wouldn’t want to accept a short price on this runner. I would make many of the same comments about Our Troubadour, but at least he’s likely to be a more inviting price. Looking at those that have more of a dirt inclination, I think there are some valid options from which to choose. Beta improved quite a bit second time out when staying on evenly to be fourth behind the talented duo of Convict and More Graytful. If he continues to step forward on the drop in class, he’ll have a major say in the outcome. However, my top pick is False Alarm. This horse looks a little improbable at first glance, but I think it’s really worth watching all of his last race. This horse broke a step slowly but seemingly wanted to run up into a forward position early. However, his rider was intent on restraining him through the opening quarter, and he wound up getting pushed down to the rail, which was not where you wanted to be. Furthermore, the race featured a distinct outside flow to it, and False Alarm was forced to steady sharply at the five-sixteenths pole as runners began backing up in front of him. He ultimately extricated himself from that trouble and finished up decently to be sixth. It’s also worth noting that he finished just a length behind Money Ride, who returned to win next time out with an improved speed figure. I expect this horse to get a more aggressive ride from Reylu Gutierrez this time, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his best effort yet.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5
RACE 4: CARTHON (#3)
I Love Jaxson has to be considered the horse to beat as he drops back down to this New York-bred level. He already won this condition two back, so he’s in for the tag this time, but that’s probably where he belongs. This gelding improved significantly on the stretch-out in distance at Saratoga and he’s basically maintained that form since with the exception of his last race. However, he had a legitimate excuse that day as he was facing much tougher company and didn’t get an ideal trip when placed in behind horses while down inside, which is not where you wanted to be. If he rebounds with the drop in class, he’s going to be pretty tough to beat. However, there are other legitimate contenders to consider. My top pick is Carthon, who makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. This gelding had been in good form going back to last winter when he ran a number of competitive speed figures at this level for Gary Sciacca. He returned with a solid effort off the layoff in September, but his form has since declined. Yet there’s a good chance that he can turn things around here, since Rudy Rodriguez is 31 for 74 (42%, $2.65 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct over five years. Furthermore, Carthon should get a good trip in this race, as he does best from a stalking position and he can sit right behind the speedy Danebury in the early going. Danebury is another who has a chance, and he's probably worth upgrading slightly after the scratch of main pace rival Foolish Ghost.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with ALL
RACE 5: SEED MONEY (#5)
This isn’t the toughest N1X allowance, to say the least, so horses like Seven Is Heaven and Oh My Papa have to be considered major threats. The former got somewhat lucky to break his maiden two back, but nevertheless beat a strong rival in Freaky Styley. He couldn’t quite duplicate that performance in his first start against winners last time, but he was too far back early against a solid field. Oh My Papa finished ahead of his main rival last time when staying on evenly to be third in a tougher race at this level. That was his first start in six months, so he obviously has a right to improve in his second start off the layoff, especially since he showed some promise over this course when he was unveiled last year. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be contesting the lead in a situation favoring front-runners. A moderate pace should also help Leap to Glory, but he needs to rebound after tailing off in his recent starts at Finger Lakes. That said, he was facing a much tougher rival in Tribecca in his last couple of starts, so he might be getting some significant class relief even as he returns to the NYRA circuit. I could use any of the aforementioned runners, but I think this is a spot where we can get a bit more creative. My top pick is longshot Seed Money. This colt hasn’t been seen since mid-May and was in dubious form at the time. However, you can definitely make some excuses for those last two efforts. He didn’t like the sloppy sealed track two back, and something apparently went wrong last time when he got rank early and then drifted out badly on the turn before being eased late. He was successful first off the claim for Gyarmati here last winter while earning a competitive 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. There once was ability here, so if he’s gotten over his issues and has improved at all with natural maturity, he can be a factor against this field. Don’t underestimate this guy at a big price.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,7,9
RACE 7: COOLBOY (#1)
The second division of the fifth race is no less confusing. Two of the horses that are likely to attract the most support are coming in from Finger Lakes, so they’re difficult to completely trust. Wushu Warrior easily defeated Big Engine by over 6 lengths when they met in October, but the latter runner clearly didn’t put forth his best effort that day, apparently not caring for the sealed track. The problem with Wushu Warrior is that his prior performances hardly make him a contender, and he’s unlikely to make the lead this time with far more speed signed on. Big Engine seems a bit more reliable, but he’s always a short price and doesn’t win nearly enough to justify that level of support. I want to focus on horses who have been competing on the NYRA circuit. There is plenty of pace in this race, so I think Mystical Song fits the scenario quite well. I know his recent form is fairly spotty, but he’s now making his first start for a new barn and he has run plenty of races on dirt – dry dirt in particular – that would make him a major player here. He’s part of my play, but my top pick is the potential “speed of the speeds” Coolboy. This horse is in better form than it appears. He defeated a solid group when he broke his maiden at Belmont in September and then was overmatched in his first start against winners. They tried the turf again on Nov. 10 and he actually ran deceptively well to be fourth despite getting a wide trip over a rail-biased course. Then last time, he was sent hard from the inside to carve out fast fractions over a pretty dead racetrack. Six and a half furlongs is a little far for him, but he nevertheless held on well to be fourth while earning a field-best last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure of 107. He should be able to make the lead again here, and if Joey Martinez can ration out his speed a bit more going this 6-furlong distance, I think he’s a threat to go gate-to-wire. After all, this is an easier spot than he encountered last time and it doesn’t hurt to have speed on this track.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6,8,10
RACE 8: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#5)
Stan the Man had been in great form since returning from a layoff last year, earning a slew of TimeformUS Speed Figures that would just make him really tough to beat against a field like this. The major concern is obviously the layoff, since he hasn’t been seen since early June. However, it is worth noting that he’s been ready to run for quite a while, since he first appeared in the entries all the way back on Thanksgiving week when he was intended to run in the postponed Fall Highweight. His connections have ultimately chosen this spot instead, and one could interpret that as a vote of confidence in his fitness. After all, it’s no small feat to handle 1 1/8 miles off a significant layoff. I believe he’s the horse to beat, but he’s the kind of runner that I’d want to take a shot with at a price, not necessarily as the favorite. I suppose his main rival is Major Cabbie, who drops out of a tougher spot in the Grade 1 Clark. He earned a competitive speed figure that day, but his prior victories at Keeneland were achieved with the benefit of slow paces, and he might not get free on the front end here with Stan the Man in the race. I’ll still use him, but I’d prefer to look for better value. My top pick is Backsideofthemoon. This 7-year-old appears to be back in top form now and I like that his new connections are striking while the iron is hot. He clearly improved for the Rudy Rodriguez barn, but it’s not like they did anything more than get him to run back to his best efforts for Leo O’Brien. Now he’s with Robert Klesaris, who did win off the claim with a longshot at Belmont a few months ago. The nine-furlong distance is no problem and he has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with ALL