by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 8 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 2 - 10 - 9
Race 7: 7 - 13 - 4 - 5
Race 8: 8 - 1 - 9 - 10
Race 9: 8 - 7 - 9 - 4
RACE 2: NO DISTORTION (#2)
Halloween Horror is the horse to beat after two consecutive runner-up finishes at this level. Despite losing to today’s rival King Kranz two back, he actually ran the best race that day after setting a contested pace. Then last time, he again ran quite well to be second against what was arguably a tougher field than this. If there is any moisture in the track following Friday’s rain, that certainly won’t hurt him, as he relishes wet going. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. Yet he figures to have plenty of early company from No Distortion, who I think is a viable alternative to the favorite. This horse actually ran well for Dermot Magner through the fall, as he was cooked in a pace duel with Halloween Horror on Nov. 9 and closed well behind a wire-to-wire winner going six furlongs last time. I won’t hold his one-mile effort two back against him since that distance is just too far for him. What intrigues me most about this gelding is the claim out of his last race by Mertkan Kantarmaci. This low-profile barn has sent out a few very live runners recently in New York, and I would not be surprised to see this horse improve off the claim. Seven furlongs seems like the right distance for him, and he has run fairly well over a wet track in the past. The other horse to use is Gorelli, who faced tougher company when he returned from the layoff earlier this month. He was shuffled back on the rail in the early going, and then encountered traffic when attempting to mount a rally in upper stretch. He actually ran fairly well considering the circumstances, and he has a right to do better in this spot. The problem with him is his lack of speed, given the expected pace dynamics.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6,8
Trifecta: 2 with 4,8 with 4,6,7,8
RACE 4: MISS FLAMBE (#5)
I couldn’t quite latch onto the expected favorites in this race. Annette’s Humor is probably the one to beat as she drops back in for a tag in her second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. She didn’t run that badly in her first start for this barn, as she contested the pace before fading behind next-out winner Forever Changed. The winner of that race has some ability, but she didn’t earn a particularly fast speed figure. Annette’s Humor’s task is made difficult due to the presence of D’s Sis, who outdueled her on the lead in a Sep. 14 race at this level. The former filly has improved since then, but you can also make some excuses D’s Sis last time, as she set an honest pace against tougher special weigh foes. If these two get embroiled in another speed duel, that should help set things up for a late runner. One of those to consider is Kathy’s Cause, who cuts back in distance after trying a pair of routes, one on turf and the other on dirt. Her main track effort two back was fairly encouraging, since she made an outside move on a day when you wanted to be on the rail and stayed on for third. I’m definitely using her, but I’m most interested in a filly that finished behind her in that Sep. 14 off-the-turf event. Miss Flambe failed to show up that day for whatever reason. She took no money, was sluggish from the start, and called it quits early after racing wide. She was given some time off and returned for a tag last time. While I don’t love the race that she exits from a quality perspective, I did think she ran better than it appears. She was ridden conservatively early and had to weave her way through traffic while attempting to advance on the turn. She clearly had some run in the stretch but again found herself in behind horses while rallying. I like the claim by Chris Englehart, and I think she can have a major say in this spot if she runs back to her solid debut effort in which she finished behind a pair of talented fillies.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,7,10
RACE 5: DEVINE DENTAL (#3)
Ironclad is the horse to beat following his half-length victory at this level on Nov. 16. While he ran a competitive speed figure that day, he did so in an off-the-turf race against a field that was undoubtedly weaker than this one. Furthermore, while the Danny Gargan barn has been sending out live runners lately, he does not have strong statistics second off the claim with last-out winners (3 for 22, 14 percent, $0.54 ROI). This horse could be in trouble if Doyouknowsomething repeats his last effort. He was another horse whom trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci seemed to improve, as he got this old warrior back to top form. Doyouknowsomething had the pace in his favor, but he still ran his fastest speed figure in about a year. I’m definitely using this runner, but he is a need-the-lead type who is unable to produce a top effort when he fails to get to the front early. Unfortunately, I agree with the Pace Projector, which indicates that fellow speed type Devine Dental is a bit faster in the early going. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be in front early in a situation favoring the leader. This gelding has developed a good race/bad race pattern in recent starts, so he should be sitting on a better effort after losing at Parx last time. While he disappointed as the even-money favorite in that race, his first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin, I thought he actually ran better than it seems. The pace of that race was very fast, and he put away his early rival before getting run down by a closer. This horse has proven that he fits at this level, and I like him getting back to a one-turn mile. His rider, Eric Cancel, has been much more willing to ride front-runners aggressively in recent months, and I believe he will take advantage of this horse’s speed. The other runner that I want to use prominently is Someday Jones, who drops in for a tag for the firs time in his career after contesting a series of minor stakes in Pennyslvania. He’s capable of running a competitive speed figure every now and then and it’s usually wise to take John Servis seriously when he ships horses to New York.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,8
Trifecta: 3 with 1,8 with 1,2,5,7,8
RACE 6: BEACH FRONT (#1)
True Gold is clearly the one to beat as he returns three weeks after a puzzling performance. Sent off as the 9-10 favorite in a similar spot, he broke with the field but was then eased back off the pace and put into an awkward spot down inside. Joel Rosario had trouble finding a clear path for him on the turn, but then he had no run whatsoever once he worked his way into the clear in the stretch. A repeat of that effort will get him nothing here, but I have to believe he can do better given how well he ran in his first few starts. The addition of blinkers suggests that Charlton Baker wants him placed closer to the pace this time. I’m using him, but I can’t pick him on top at a short price given the obvious concerns. There are a number of others to consider at better prices. Funny Guy didn’t do much running in his debut, but he has a right to improve at second asking. A few of the firsters have a right to run well in their debuts, including The Big Lebanese, who sports a solid worktab for his debut. I’m using these runners, but my top pick is Beach Front. This colt may end up going off as the second choice, but he should still be a fair price in such a wide-open race. Jeremiah Englehart understandably started him out on turf given his ambiguous pedigree, and I think even he would admit that he’s been known to misjudge his horses’ preferred surfaces in their debuts. This colt did run well to be second in his debut and that’s been the only race in which he was anywhere near the winner at the wire, so many may just dismiss him as a turf sprinter. However, I think he ran a deceptively strong race in that off-the-turf event last time. For whatever reason, Jose Ortiz was intent on guiding him to the back of the pack in the early going despite the fact that he broke with the field. The pace never really materialized and speeds dominated on the front end. Considering the dynamics, Beach Front actually ran pretty well to weave his way through traffic and rally for fourth. He might have even finished closer had he not been difficult to handle and encountered some traffic in deep stretch. I think he has a right to step forward out of that race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him placed closer to the early pace this time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6,9,10,11
RACE 7: LEM ME TEL YA (#7)
This is one of the most interesting races on the card, as a field of 13 New York-breds will battle with no clear favorite among them. I believe that Smokin Platinum is the most likely winner, but you cannot fully trust this horse. As far as natural talent goes, I don’t think any of his rivals can quite match him. However, he’s been his own worst enemy since returning from a layoff this fall. He’s shown a habit of breaking sluggishly and taking himself out of position in the first quarter mile. That was especially detrimental last time, when he was shuffled back to last early in a 10-horse field and had to launch a wide, premature move to get back into position. All things considered, there’s an argument to be made that he ran the best race of all last time. However, what’s to say that he won’t have the same problem once again in this 13-horse affair? It’s possible that the blinkers will help, but I can’t strongly endorse him as the favorite. Suas ran right by him in the last eighth last time, albeit with a much more favorable trip. I think the key to this horse is getting him outside of runners, since he appears to sulk when he gets stuck down on the rail, as was the case in his disappointing effort two back. While he’s drawn very wide this time, the post position could actually work to his advantage. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is another horse out of that Dec. 1 race. Lem Me Tel Ya didn’t have quite as much trouble as Smokin Platinum, but he still didn’t get any ideal setup. There appeared to be plenty of speed signed on for that race, but Wrong Ben shook loose early and was able to lead them throughout. I had thought that Lem Me Tel Ya would get some pace to close into, but it never really developed. Those that did launch moderately successful late runs did so while making wide moves off the far turn, and Lem Me Tel Ya got stuck down inside behind some tiring runners. He actually finished well through the lane once clear, but he had too much ground left to make up. Now Bruce Levine puts the blinkers back on, which should only help to focus him. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace once again, and it should be unavoidable this time with a few speedy Finger Lakes shippers added to the mix. I think this horse is in better form than it appears, and he’s going to be a big price this time.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,13
RACE 8: [Late Scratch]
I suppose Name Changer is the horse to beat in this wide-open Queens County. If he runs back to his winning effort in the Monmouth Cup two back, he is probably going to beat this field. However, you have to wonder where that performance came from since his surrounding races don’t necessarily suggest that he’s a graded stakes-winning type. I can’t fault him for losing to the streaking Aztec Sense last time, but I thought his overall performance was somewhat dull, and the subsequent layoff does not inspire confidence. Some may consider Exulting to be his main rival, and the Pace Projector indicates that he should work out the right trip. There isn’t very much early speed in this race, and Exulting should be contesting the pace along with Adulator. The problem with Exulting is the distance since I believe he’s much better around one turn, and he was unable to handle 1 1/8 miles against stakes company last time. Furthermore, he has shown a tendency to lug in badly through the late stages of his races, and those antics got the better of him last time. Kiaran McLaughlin adds blinkers to correct that issue, but I still can’t trust him. Small Bear is a perfectly logical contender. He’s raced primarily over turf in recent seasons, but he’s a capable dirt performer, and this distance suits him well. He defeated Exulting three back when closing behind Favorable Outcome, and I thought he ran better than his fourthplace finish would indicate last time at Laurel after being stuck down inside for much of the way. I’m using him prominently, but I think this is a race where we can take a shot with a bigger price. I’ve always been a fan of Backsideofthemoon, and his last race suggests that he could be rounding back into top form. This horse typically comes alive in the fall and winter months, and he’s proven that 1 1/8 miles is within his ideal range. Going back to last winter, he ran a string of speed figures that make him fast enough to compete with these rivals. I like that Leo O’Brien is adding blinkers again to get him more involved in the early pace.
Scratched.