by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 2:   12 - 3 - 14 - 5
Race 3:   7 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   4 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 4 - 11
Race 7:   6 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 9 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 2 - 9 - 7

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: TEN TWENTY NINE (#4)
My main idea in this race is to try to beat Peculiar Sensation. I acknowledge that this horse has actually run some competitive dirt races, but he’s going to get bet off his recent turf form, and I have serious doubts about him handling seven furlongs on the main track. At a short price, and perhaps as the favorite, I want to bet against him. I’m also somewhat skeptical of the other runner that figures to attract significant play, Honor and Pleasure, who is also primarily a turf horse. He ran reasonably well to be second last time after contesting a fast early pace, but the off-the-turf field that he was facing was pretty terrible, and this is a step up in class. I want to use two horses. My top selection is Ten Twenty Nine, who just seems to be rounding back into top form after a dull return race three back. I liked the way he was finishing last time against what was undeniably a better field than this one, and this stretch out to seven furlongs should agree with him. There isn’t much pace in this race, so I like the rider switch to Paco Lopez, who rode him well two back and figures to employ more aggressive tactics again here. The other horse that I want to keep an eye on is Samurai Warrior. I wouldn’t want to bet him at his morning line price of 4-1, but I think he could drift higher than that. He definitely needs to improve, but all of his prior runs came as a young three-year-old, and now he returns as a more mature racehorse. This trainer has had success out of town, and the barn waives the claiming fee off the layoff. Furthermore, the two best races that Samurai Warrior has ever run came over wet tracks.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6,7

 

RACE 2: SHIPSANDGOODS (#12)
With the scratch of my original top pick, Ed's Quick Cat, I cannot bring myself to leave Pence on top. Therefore, I'm promoting Shipsandgoods into the top spot. I know that this horse's last race was disappointing, but he did break a bit slowly that day and was carried extremely wide into the lane. Furthermore, that came over a fast track, whereas his last two starts over wet tracks have undoubtedly been fast enough to beat this field, and both of those races came against tougher company. I'm concerned that he's not getting enough pace to close into, as Barefoot Angel looks like the controlling speed, but Shipsandgoods looks like the kind of horse that could get totally ignored in the wagering, and he actually has a legitimate chance to win this.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,4,5,6,8,14

 

RACE 4: CLUTCH CARGO (#1)
Blewitt is clearly the horse to beat off his solid debut effort. If he repeats that speed figure here, he is probably going to win this race. However, there are some obstacles. Blewitt used front-running tactics in his debut, and the Pace Projector is predicting that this race will feature a fast pace. That could be a significant hurdle for a horse who is attempting to stretch out to a mile for the first time. Given a very short price, I think he’s mildly vulnerable here. While I wish that he was not part of a coupled entry, I still think that Clutch Cargo is the best alternative to the favorite. He’s a closer that figures to get plenty of pace to close into with runners such as Southern Union, Conquest Prankster, and even his stablemate Heart in Hand going after Blewitt early. I realize that Clutch Cargo has primarily been a turf horse throughout his career, but I think he deserves another chance on the dirt. His only prior efforts over the main track are not bad. He was very green in his career debut as a two-year-old, so I can excuse that effort. Since then, he ran reasonably well behind Twisted Tom in January, and then put forth another decent effort in June behind the talented Broken Engagement, despite using a running style that is not ideal for him.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7

 

RACE 7: GREAT STUFF (#6)
The main players in this race are those exiting November’s Fall Highweight Handicap. The likely favorite is Threefiveindia, who ran quite well to be second behind the formidable Stallwalkin’ Dude. Threefiveindia did not get off to a great start that day, as he was squeezed back between horses a few strides out of the gate. He did well to work himself up into a mid-pack position, and came with his usual strong run in the stretch. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I want a different runner out of that race. As Threefiveindia was deftly guided through a hole between horses at the top of the stretch last time, Great Stuff was encountering some trouble racing inside. When you’re riding a closer, you want to avoid putting them in a position where they could get their momentum broken, yet that’s exactly what happened to Great Stuff. As the field fanned out coming to the top of the stretch of the Fall Highweight, Rajiv Maragh guided him down to the rail, and he had to briefly pause when trying to squeeze through inside of the tiring front-runner. He then again encountered traffic past the eighth pole as runners converged down toward the rail late. All things considered, he still finished well. Now he gets a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,7 with 2,3,4,7

 

RACE 8: SENIOR INVESTMENT (#4)
There are many viable options in this very competitive Queens County. The horse to beat is probably Kurilov. Even though he lost his U.S. debut, the one-turn mile distance of that race may have been a bit short for him, since he won a Group 1 going 11 furlongs in Chile in his prior start. This trip should be more to his liking, but Kurilov does have to overcome the outside post position (9). It's reasonable to assume that the early pace of this race will be honest, given the early speed of Discreet Lover, Doyouknowsomething, and Alex the Terror. I’m hoping that the early tempo is at least fair, because the horse that I want to bet is a deep closer. Senior Investment showed real potential early in his 3-year-old year, culminating in a solid third-place finish in the Preakness. He’s now just winding back up into top form following a summer break, and I think he’s returned as an improved horse. He had some minor trouble two back at Woodbine, and took a significant step forward last time in the Discovery. The flow of that race did not really favor closers, yet he closed resolutely through the lane behind a career-best performance by the winner. I think this distance is right up his alley, and he figures to offer better value than some of the other late runners in here.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,8,9