by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 8: 8 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 6 - 9
RACE 1: CADEAU DE PAIX (#5)
Hail is likely to go off at a very short price in the opener. There’s clearly potential here, as this Juddmonte homebred is a half-sister to champion mare Close Hatches, as well as Grade 1-placed filly Lockdown. The speed figure she earned in her debut is the fastest number recorded by any of the fillies in this field, and one would assume that she can only improve from there. I’m somewhat concerned that the runner-up that day, Lady Suebee, came back to disappoint at a short price while recording a much slower speed figure next time, but that was over a wet track. This favorite is formidable, but I’m nevertheless trying to beat her with Cadeau de Paix at a better price. H. James Bond has been having a stellar Aqueduct meet, and this filly of his showed some ability in her debut. The final margin of defeat may look quite large at first glance, but Nov. 16 was a day that saw winners drawing off by huge margins, with many fields badly strung out across the wire. It was also a day that was strongly favoring runners with early speed. Within that context, Cadeau de Paix was one of the few horses that launched a somewhat successful closing bid, as she passed over half the field despite racing extremely wide on the turn. The strength of her effort was confirmed when third-place finisher Lemoona, who also rallied from off the pace, came back to win her next start.
Win: 5
Exacta Box: 4,5
RACE 4: NUT NUT (#1)
I Miss My Father may win this race at a very short price, but I think he’s the kind of favorite that you’re supposed to bet against. He’s simply been a disappointment. Following his troubled debut, he went off at short prices in four straight races against maiden company, and just barely got the job done at 2-5 last time when desperately hanging on in a close finish. Linda Rice realistically drops him in class for his first start against winners, but she has not had much success with this move. Over the past five years, she is just 2 for 22 (9 percent, $0.64 ROI) with last-out maiden winners running for tags of $25,000 or less. I think he can be beaten, and I want to take a shot against him with Nut Nut. This Gary Gullo trainee actually beat the favorite three races back when breaking his maiden in September. Since then, he’s made two starts against winners and both have come against tougher fields than the one he meets today. His last start was his first for the Gullo barn, and I thought he didn’t get a very smart ride. There was no speed at all in that race, yet Eric Cancel seemed intent on dragging Nut Nut to the back of the pack. He tried to pass them all in the stretch, but was simply left with too much to do in the lane. He’s been much more effective when ridden from a stalking position, so I’m hoping to see Dylan Davis keep him closer to the pace here.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,7
RACE 5: HOLDING ACES (#6)
The two runners likely to take the most money are Holland Road and Special Story. I think they both must be used in some capacity, but I’m not excited about the prospect of picking either one. Holland Road was the kind of horse you wanted last time, considering that his trainer, Michael Dilger, has awesome numbers with horses coming off a maiden win. Special Story had some minor trouble in his prior start at Del Mar, but Robertino Diodoro has just mediocre statistics off trainer switches like this. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, and I think that could work to the advantage of Holding Aces. I know that his recent form looks concerning, but he’s had excuses. Something obviously went wrong three back at Belmont, but his two more recent races at Aqueduct have not been all that bad. He hung on well until the late stages two back, but the seven furlongs proved to be just a bit too far for him. Then last time he completely missed the break, spotting the field by three or four lengths, and actually ran on reasonably well to close for fifth. He’s subtly rounding back into better form and his top effort gives him a real chance to beat the favorites.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7
RACE 6: SCORPION BOWL (#1) / MY LIGHTNIN STRIKE (#5)
This race features a trio of second-time starters who all ran interesting races in their debuts. The one that may have put forth the best effort is Trinni Ninja, who somehow finished second at odds of 115-1 despite getting an awkward and uncomfortable trip. She broke slowly, was rushed up into traffic, had to steady on the turn, yet still rallied strongly for second. This barn’s runners have all been outperforming expectations in recent weeks, but it’s still hard to trust these connections at a short price. My Victoria Rose ran a decent race in her first start while racing a bit greenly. She’s certainly worth including, but the runner that really interests me is Scorpion Bowl. Linda Rice has fantastic numbers with second-time-starters, and has done particularly well at Aqueduct. Over the past five years, she is 24 for 54 (44 percent, $3.55) with second-time-starting maidens in dirt sprints at this track. She also performed like a horse that badly needed a race. After showing speed immediately after the start, she appeared to lose focus as Paco Lopez relaxed his hands heading into the far turn. She steadied out of position and briefly appeared as she would finish well back in the pack. However, once into the stretch, she responded to her rider’s mild encouragement, and might have even gotten up for third had she not steadied late. She figures to run a much more professional race this time. At a much bigger price, the other horse that I want to use, primarily underneath, is My Lightnin Strike. Something clearly went amiss in this filly’s debut, her only prior dirt start, as she was given three months off following that race. I was encouraged to see her show vastly improved early speed in her second start, albeit on turf, in a race that completely fell apart late. Her pedigree is full of dirt influences, so I think she deserves on more chance getting back on this surface.
Win: 1
Win/Place: 5
Exacta: 1 with 3,5,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,6,7,8 with 5