by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 9 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 11 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 9 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 7: 12 - 10 - 11 - 1
Race 8: 10 - 2 - 5 - 12
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 10: 5 - 6 - 11 - 8
RACE 1: KINGMEISTER (#6)
I have no major knocks against Cost Basis, other than the fact that he’s going to be a short price in a race where some others have the potential to improve a great deal. Based on his performance last time, he’s just significantly faster than all of his rivals. And it’s not as if he’s some finished product, as he posted that 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure in just his second career start. He ran a winning race that day, making an early move to break the race open at the quarter pole, and was even battling back in the late stages. He’s worked well all along, so it was his poor debut that was the surprise, not his improvement last time. If he continues progressing, he’s unlikely to lose, but there are a number of second time starters to consider. One in particular interests me a great deal. Kingmeister debuted going 6 furlongs last month off a strong series of workouts, and little went right that day. He broke awkwardly and found himself in last-place early. Not only was the pace slow, dominated on the front end, but the main track was playing very kindly to speed types in mid-November, significantly hindering those that tried to rally through kickback. I don’t think we saw anything close to what this horse is actually capable of producing that day. Furthermore, he’s supposed to be better going longer distances. He is a half-brother to graded stakes winning sprinter Strike Power, but he was the exception in an otherwise route-oriented female family. I think we’re going to see a much better effort this time, but he will have to improve quite a bit to beat Cost Basis.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,8,9
Trifecta: 6,9 with 6,9 with 1,2,3,8
RACE 3: WINNING DRIVE (#2)
This race presents many problems. Candy Promises is obviously the horse to beat and would win this easily if running back to either of his sprint efforts from this past May. However, he’s started just once since then and now he’s returning for a $20,000 tag over 4 months after getting claimed for twice that price. This is not a successful move for Rudy Rodriguez, so it’s reasonable to assume that he’s going to regress. The questions are, how much will has his form declined and who can beat him? I’m an Ocala Dude seems slightly more trustworthy, since he has at least competed for some lower-level claiming tags before. Yet he, too, is dropping off a layoff and is doing so for a barn that isn’t really known for success off breaks like this. Though, Michelle Nevin is 17 for 48 (35%, $2.37 ROI) with horses dropping in price by 50% or more. Ultimately, I’m getting mixed signals from this guy and it’s not like he projects to be that big of a price either. Then there’s California Night, who has more back class than any of these, but his recent form has been abysmal. So, let’s get more creative and take a closer look at the most curious entrant in this field, Winning Drive. What is this horse doing here? Jason Servis is a trainer notorious for running horses where they can win, even if it means dropping them in for low-level tags or moving them to less competitive circuits. That’s why he achieves such a high success rate. So, why in the world would this cheap horse from New Jersey be targeted at a competitive claiming race on Cigar Mile Day with top rider Irad Ortiz named, even though he appears to be badly outclassed? I’m guessing it’s because Jason Servis is, for whatever reason, expecting a vastly improved effort. I fully admit that this horse is impossible to like off his Monmouth form. He has only run one good race in his career, that being his March 21 victory at Gulfstream when he impressively beat the solid rival W W Springtime, and he would have to do even better than that to win here. Yet, I put nothing past this barn and the placement in this spot is just too weird for me to ignore.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 4: ROSE FLOWER (#3)
Fire Key is as solid as they come, and 6 furlongs on turf is her ideal trip. In 12 attempts at this distance, she’s finished in the exacta 11 times, with 7 victories. She collected another one of those last time when taking down the Floral Park at Belmont as the 2-1 favorite. She’s only managed to visit the winner’s circle twice this year, but she’s been in solid form throughout the season and will be pretty tough with her typical effort. However, she’s going to be a short price since she’s fully exposed at this point in the season, and I think some others are right on par with her in terms of ability. One of those is Broadway Run, who only lost to Fire Key by a series of scant margins in three starts earlier this year. She’s coming off a disappointing effort in August, but she got the wrong trip that day with blinkers added, and something may have happened to necessitate the layoff. She’s handled give in the ground before and she figures to be right there as long as she’s back on track. I’ll use both, but my top pick is the up-and-coming 3-year-old Rose Flower. I loved the way this filly won the allowance race last time, closing from last in a race that featured very little pace for her to rally into. While she didn’t get a poor trip in her prior start, Manny Franco did try to save ground and split horses in a race that otherwise featured an outside flow. I’m not sure we’ve even seen her best yet in those two U.S. starts, since she was absolutely dazzling in her final French outing in July. I do worry a bit that 6 furlongs may be on the short side for her, but the rider switch to Joel Rosario seems like a real boost for a filly who is a great candidate to benefit from his talents in these races.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6,7
RACE 5: OR’EFFICE (#9)
While I’m picking a newcomer, it would be wrong to just brush past those with experience, as there are a number of intriguing runners to consider. Default Rate may be the favorite after getting disqualified out of a victory first time out and finishing third to a better rival at Belmont last time. It was good to see him run a much faster race in that most recent start, and his pedigree indicates that he shouldn’t have any major issues stretching out to the mile. Furthermore, he has speed, and that could be important in a race where many of those drawn to his outside appear to be plodding types. I’m using him prominently, but some others may offer better value. Among those that we’ve already seen, I prefer Tapage. This colt wasn’t quite ready for his sprint debut at Saratoga, but I thought he did much better second time out at Belmont, making a middle move on the far turn before flattening out to be fourth behind Cost Basis, who look pretty tough in today’s opener. He was bet down to favoritism last time, looking to build off that prior effort, yet he was never a factor while finishing sixth. I think it would be wrong to write him off based on that performance, since the kickback situation was as bad as ever on November 11 and he really had no chance once he was taken to the back of the pack early. The track has been much fairer in recent weeks, and I don’t mind the slight turnback to a mile for him. I’d also use Mischief Afoot out of that race, since he was similarly compromised and he, too, may not have wanted to go that far at this point. Yet, there is an intriguing first time starter in this race that must be considered. Or’effice makes his debut for Mark Hennig, whose barn has been heating up again after a bit of a dry spell last month. Over 5 years, he has done quite well debuting horses in dirt routes, sending out a pair of winners at generous prices, including Bourbon War last year. This colt certainly has the pedigree to handle the distance as a son of multiple Grade 2-winning router Grace Hall. Having watched a number of his workouts, it’s very apparent that this horse possesses serious ability. He just glided through the stretch when achieving that bullet 4-furlong clocking on September 20, and he later professionally rated behind a stablemate in a subsequent morning team drill. He doesn't appear to have it all together yet, but his natural talent may nevertheless carry him to success in his debut.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 2,9 with 1,2,4,9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 5,6,7
RACE 8: DAPHNE MOON (#10)
Maedean is simply the horse to beat off her last two efforts. She got a great trip to break her maiden two back and then improved on that effort when taking down the Grade 3 Tempted last time. In both of starts, she earned TimeformUS Speed Figures that are among the highest in this field. The stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles is not supposed to be an issue given her pedigree, and she’s drawn a great post position. As long as she continues to move forward, she’s going to be a handful. Her main rival Alandra won what appeared to be a live maiden race at Saratoga in her debut. It’s always significant when Shug McGaughey runners win first time out, as they tend to go on to do nice things from there. She completely altered her running style in the Alcibiades and that may have worked against her. She probably can do better than that, but she’s going to take plenty of money even though she hasn’t yet run as fast as some of her main rivals. Lake Avenue earned the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field when walloping a small group of maidens by over 12 lengths last time. Now she stretches out for the first time, and she’s bred to handle added ground. However, she had no luck with the post position draw. My top pick is Daphne Moon, who also drew a wide post but figures to take back from there. She overcame a poor start to circle the field and win going away over a demanding 7 furlongs in her Saratoga debut. She was understandably was bet down to 3-1 odds in the Grade 1 Frizette subsequently, but another poor break compromised her chances in a race dominated on the front end. That performance isn’t nearly as bad as it seems, and she feels like one who should continue improving with added ground. The Pace Projector is predicting she’ll get a fast pace to close into.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,5,6,12
Trifecta: 2,10 with 2,10 with 5,6,9,11,12
RACE 9: PRINCE JAMES (#7)
Likely favorite Forza di Oro is yet to run as fast as some others in here, but the potential is certainly there. He ran much better than his 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure would indicate in his debut, as he completely blew the start, leaving the gate 3 to 4 lengths behind the others. He showed real talent to run so well thereafter, and followed that up with a facile maiden score, despite the relatively slight margin of victory, never fully set down in the lane. He is by Speightstown, but there’s plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of this pedigree, and he acts like one that should get the 1 1/8 miles. Pletcher has a pair contenders in here, and the one that I prefer is Alpha Sixty Six. His debut was better than the speed figures would indicate, as he made up ground into a relatively slow pace and did so while racing wide against a rail bias. He was thrown into a tough spot in the Champagne next time out and he did some himself no favors by blowing the start. All things considered, he did well to miss second place by only 3/4-length that day. I’m using both, but I think we can get a bit more creative in this wide-open affair. I prefer Prince James at a big price. His last race is quite slow from a speed figure standpoint, but he ran a bit better than it looks. The eventual winner got loose on the front end through slow-to-moderate fractions and this guy was the only horse making up significant ground at the end. He ran well in his debut at Monmouth, earning a number that puts him in the mix, and he’s bred to appreciate added ground as a son of Tiznow out of a half-sister to Grade 1 CCA Oaks runner-up Don’t Forget Gil. There isn’t much pace in this race, and he can be forwardly placed with the addition of blinkers.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,4,8
Trifecta: 7 with 2,4,8 with 1,2,3,4,8,9
RACE 10: MAXIMUM SECURITY (#5)
I’m not going to overcomplicate this Cigar Mile. The two main players are obviously Maximum Security and Spun to Run, and I prefer the former. Maximum Security is such a versatile horse, one that is as effective sprinting as he is going 1 1/4 miles. He doesn’t need to carry his racetrack around with him, winning on a variety of surfaces, and he’s shown the ability to adapt to a wide array of pace scenarios. The Pace Projector is predicting that he can get in front of Spun to Run early, and I think that’s going to make him awfully difficult to run down. As long as Maximum Security merely holds his form, I believe he’ll win, and there’s a strong chance that he could actually step forward considering that he’s making his second start off a 3-month layoff. Spun to Run will attract support on the basis of his two recent flashy speed figures, and those numbers are totally legitimate. However, he had a lot working in his favor in both of those starts. He was allowed to set a slow pace at Parx two back en route to that dominant score, and then last time he made the lead through fairly moderate fractions in a race where the expected pace competition never materialized. Getting out in front of the kickback was important during that week at Santa Anita, so he had all the best of it. I think he faces a more difficult task having to chase down Maximum Security this time.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,6,8,9,11
Trifecta: 5 with 6,8,11 with 1,2,4,6,8,9,11