by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 2:   8 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   10 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 9 - 7
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 9:   8 - 14 - 1 - 5

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: MOONDANCE JOY (#8)
With the scratch of reliable favorite My Won Love, Lady Bergen becomes the horse to beat. She is the wild card of this field. At her best, she could destroy this group, but it’s hard to know what we’re going to get out of her. She put in some fantastic performances when she was initially transferred into Jason Servis’s barn, but she’s since gone off form. Her disgraceful loss at Saratoga two back was a sign of things to come, and now she finds herself dropping in for the tag. She’s supposed to face early pressure from Sing for Beauty and potentially some others, so I don’t trust her. A couple of fillies exit a $32,000 open claimer on Nov. 14. The race came up unusually slow for the class level, as Clairvoyant Lady won despite breaking slowly. I thought Archumybaby didn’t have much of an excuse that day, as she stalked the slow pace and had no answer in the lane. However, I would be willing to give Moondance Joy another chance, despite the fact that she finished just behind that rival in fourth. This mare was making her first start in nearly a year after something clearly went wrong at the end of her 2017 campaign. Considering the dynamics of that Nov. 14 affair, I thought Moondance Joy ran fairly well, as she was the only horse making a closing move through the stretch in a race where all of the fractions are color-coded blue in TimeformUS PPs. It’s encouraging that Junior Alvarado stays aboard and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her take a step forward in this second start back off the layoff.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,7
 

RACE 3: FIGHT ON LUCY (#3)
Midnitesalright and Princess Pinky are likely to vie for favoritism in this spot. The former may have the upper hand, since she has more experience sprinting and came very close to winning her last start. On the other hand, she may prefer a wet track, which she won’t get Saturday. Princess Pinky may have run the best race of any of these last time, but that came over a route of ground. The winner of that race returned to run well in a dirt stakes, so I think the performance is legitimate. I just question her speed going this distance. I’m definitely using both of these prominently, but I don’t think either has much margin for error. I’m taking a shot against these two with Fight On Lucy. This Pat Kelly-trained filly is going to be a more enticing price, and I think she has a legitimate chance to upset the favorites. Despite running in off-the-turf races in both of her starts thus far, she’s actually faced some decent fields. Her debut race in October came up pretty fast, and then last time I thought she ran deceptively well behind the promising filly Forever Changed, who returned to win right back on Friday. Additionally, a couple of horses that finished behind her that day have already returned to run well. I think that Fight On Lucy may benefit significantly from the addition of blinkers. She was pretty green in her last race, as she was trying to lug in throughout the stretch, and this equipment change could correct that. At bigger prices, I also want to consider some of the first-time starters. The one that I find most intriguing is longshot Semaya, as she goes out for the sneaky Dennis Lalman, who won with a first-time starter at a big price last winter. Despite selling for a cheap price, she has pedigree to be a runner.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,5,6
 

RACE 4: OVERLAND (#10)
The two horses likely to attract the most support finished less than a length apart going this distance on Nov. 10. Not That Brady, dismissed at 39-1, just held off Scott Brown that day in a race that garnered an unusually fast speed figure, so you have to wonder about whether either of these horses will be able to replicate that performance. The winner of the race, Beachside, is a somewhat talented New York-bred this trio finished over 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field, so it’s definitely conceivable that it was just a very fast race. Despite going off at astronomical odds, Not That Brady is the one that probably ran the best race, as he set a very fast early pace and gamely held on for the place. I’m using both of these horses. I’m less enthusiastic about some others that could attract support. Pier Forty has had his chances, and Bobby Man didn’t run that well in his dirt debut last time. Instead, I’m going to take a shot against the favorites with Overland. This expensive yearling purchase stretches out for the first time following an encouraging debut at Belmont. He’s obviously not a sprinter as a son of Flatter, so he should appreciate the added ground. While that was an off-the-turf race, he was one of the Main Track Only entrants, and he actually ran on well through the stretch after getting outrun early. The two finishers in that race have ability and I think this runner has a right to do much better in his second start as he returns as a new gelding. The fact that Brad Cox has bypassed the top riders to give Mike Luzzi a chance should ensure that we get a slightly better price that we otherwise would have.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,8
 

RACE 5: SOWER (#3)
With the scratch of main rival Dream Pauline, Vertical Oaks becomes a prohibitive favorite. This filly had everything break in her favor on the front end when she won the Dream Supreme at Churchill Downs last time out. Dream Pauline was never able to issue a serious challenge after encountering trouble through the first half of the race, and Verical Oak coasted to victory after setting slow early fractions. Even with Dream Pauline in the race, I was actually interested in a different chestnut 3-year-old filly. Sower kept very good company against members of her own age group through the summer. I thought she ran very well to be third in the Victory Ride in July after chasing a hot pace. She was no match for the talented Dream Tree in the Prioress at Saratoga and didn’t handle the two turns of the Charles Town Oaks, but I liked the way she bounced back with a top effort at Belmont last time. She clearly handles a wet track, but she was a commanding winner of that Pumpkin Pie, leading every step of the way. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and I think Sower could be the one that finds herself in front. I know she is projected to be stalking early, but that’s primarily based on her last two efforts, which featured more moderate paces. Cutting back to 6 furlongs, I expect Junior Alvarado to be aggressive and I think Sower can take them all the way.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,5
 

RACE 6: SOL THE FREUD (#4)
Bavaro is a dangerous contender as he drops in class for Jeremiah Englehart after spending most of his year running at Finger Lakes. While I’m generally skeptical of speed figures earned at that track, Bavaro has put forth competitive efforts at NYRA before, and I thought he ran reasonably well against a much tougher field last time out. The 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned for that effort makes him the horse to beat, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be able to control the early tempo. My only real concern with him is that he didn’t break sharply last time. He was more than a length behind Stoney Bennett immediately after the start that day and had to be hustled into position. I never like to see horses like this start to lose their gate speed, especially as they drop in class. Nevertheless, I trust him more than some others who figure to attract support. Summer Bourbon is a wild card as he is claimed back by Rudy Rodriguez. He ran one stellar race for this barn over the summer, but that performance is surrounded by a bunch of merely decent efforts. He went badly off form at Saratoga and I have doubts that he can get back to his top races here. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Sol the Freud. I’m just not enamored with the class droppers, and I think this reliable gelding could outrun his odds. He ran well at this level last winter, and he’s performed adequately in a few starts since returning from the layoff this summer. Last time out, I thought he ran better than it appears. His rider got him caught in behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch, and I thought he made an unwise decision to alter course to the rail at the eighth pole. With a clear path through the lane, this horse could have easily been second. He’s going to get overlooked due to the connections, but he’s fast enough to win.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5,8
 

RACE 8: BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE (#2)
Pauseforthecause is a deserving favorite off the strength of her third-place finish behind top New York-breds Highway Star and Satisfy in the Iroquois on Empire Showcase Day. This improving 3-year-old filly had hinted at having significantly stepped forward over the summer, and she confirmed that progression last time out. My only concern is that I have a few doubts about the speed figures assigned to that Iroquois, since a number of participants have returned to run slower in subsequent starts. Yet that’s only a minor critique of a filly who deserves respect in this spot. Our Circle of Love also figures to attract some attention following her blowout maiden win over this strip. She broke her string of second place finishes in decisive fashion last time out, running a speed figure that certainly puts her in the mix against winners. However, she beat a very weak field that day and I want to see her repeat that performance against serious competition. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss Michelle Nevin’s other horse, Byself, who has worked her way through New York-bred company in workmanlike fashion. Her adaptable running style should allow her to put forth a respectable effort. I’m using these fillies, but my top pick is Bluegrass Jamboree. This filly has taken a step forward with each successive start since returning from a layoff over the summer. She ran deceptively well two back when she made a wide move over a track that was favoring inside paths. Then last time, I thought she might have run the best race after making an early move to the lead in a race that was dominated by closers. I’m not convinced that she relishes a wet track, so I like that she’s getting back on fast going. For whatever reason, she’s typically dismissed at generous odds and I don’t anticipate that will change this time.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7