by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 3 - 5
RACE 3: SHARPE AND READY (#5)
The four horses with experience are all exiting the same maiden race of Jan. 15. The two colts that I think are most likely to move forward out of that heat are Sharpe and Ready and Tilt, who each made their career debuts last time out. Tilt went off as the favorite that day, but did not perform like a horse who was ready to win first time out. He got away from the gate very awkwardly, spotting the field many lengths for the run down the backstretch. He never really threatened for a placing, but he did pass a few horses late. He should benefit from that experience, but the horse that really interests me out of that race is Sharpe and Ready. He took plenty of money to go off as the second choice for a relatively low-profile barn. Heavily bet firsters such as Sharpe and Ready usually show speed in these situations, but a slow break from an inside post position hindered his chances to do so. He appeared to have some run throughout that race, but was buried inside until the final sixteenth of a mile. I expect him to break more sharply today and I appreciate the rider switch to Paco Lopez, who knows how to nurse along with a runner with early zip. Of the first-time starters in this field, the one that I would include is Broadway Bandit. This colt worked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds at the June OBS sale, despite losing a shoe right at the start of the drill. His dam was talented and this runner looks to have speed.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4,6 with ALL
RACE 4: SUMMER REVOLUTION (#6)
If Skyler’s Scramjet runs back to his Dec. 22 effort, in which he earned an impressive 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure, he is going to be awfully tough for this field to beat. On the other hand, this gelding has not been the most consistent runner during his career, and I’m not in love with the idea of taking a very short price here after he went off at 10-1 last time. I’m trying to beat him with Summer Revolution. I realize that his recent races have been somewhat disappointing, but I think he’s landing in a much more realistic spot this time. Last time out in the Toboggan, he was hard-ridden through the early stages to stay close to the pacesetters, who were dueling through fast early fractions. That race completely fell apart in the late stages, and I thought he actually did fairly well to lose to the early leader Takaful by only 3 1/2 lengths. Now Rudy Rodriguez adds blinkers and I think this horse will work out a much more comfortable stalking trip from this outside post position. Likely speeds Angry Moon and Hey Jabber Jaw are not nearly as fast as the two runners he was forced to chase last time.
Win: 6
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with ALL
RACE 5: PROFESSOR SNAPE (#5)
A few horses in this race are exiting the 5th race on Jan. 20, which was won in very fast time by Forge. That was a day that strongly favored horses racing on the rail, and the winner was indeed setting the pace inside throughout. Sicilia Mike, who figures to take some money in this spot, earned a strong speed figure while finishing second that day, but he stayed on the rail while making his rally. This horse also spent significant time on a good rail two back, so I think his overall form is not quite as strong as it appears. The runner that I want to bet out of that Jan. 20 race is Professor Snape. Antonio Arriaga claimed this horse out of a much cheaper claiming race in December, and confidently stepped him up in class last time. I think that faith was validated by Professor Snape’s performance. He raced 2 to 4 wide throughout, and lost second place by only 2 lengths. This time, he should work out a good stalking trip sitting just off Buddy Anthony. I’ll primarily use him with Killybegs Captain, who is a very logical contender after running well at this level last time.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6
RACE 6: H MAN (#8)
A few of the key contenders in this race are exiting the Jan. 20 allowance won by Benevolence. That was yet another day where the main track at Aqueduct was strongly favoring horses that stayed on the rail. Therefore, I generally want horses that were racing outside in that event. The horse that achieved the best finish that day was Formal Start, who rallied up the inside to get up for second at odds of 56-1. Obviously, staying inside helped him, but I don’t want to completely discount his chances here. This is a horse that has slowly been rounding back into form since returning from a layoff and he actually does possess more ability than his gigantic odds last time would have suggested. On the other hand, he’s going to be a much shorter price than that this time, so I’m trying to beat him. The horse that I want to lean on here is H Man. Since returning from the layoff this winter, he’s run reasonably well in both of his starts, against rail biases each time. This was especially true in that last race when he raced 3- to 4-wide throughout, and did well to get up for third. H Man is a horse that has done well when able to sit closer to the pace, and the general lack of speed in this event should help him work out his preferred stalking trip. He’s my top selection. Others that I want to include are Conquest Prankster, who should appreciate turning back to a sprint. His last race was terrible, but he may not care for sloppy tracks. I would also throw in Jeremiah Englehart’s other horse, Calculated Risker. He, too, was against the bias last time, but his closing running style could hinder him and the stretch-out to seven furlongs may not suit him.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,10
Trifecta: 8 with 2,3,5 with 2,3,5,9,10
RACE 8: A DIFFERENT STYLE (#4)
Devine Entry looks like a probable favorite in the Jimmy Winkfield following his runner-up finish behind the talented Diamond King last time. He’s clearly improved since Linda Rice switched him to dirt late last year, and I think he’s one that you have to use. However, I actually prefer the runner that finished behind him in the Heft Stakes at Laurel. The early pace of that race was extremely fast for the distance. That’s indicated in TimeformUS PPs by the 152 Pace Rating for the first quarter mile, which is significantly high considering that the raw final-time figure for the race was a 91. A Different Style was dueling for the lead with eventual winner Diamond King that day and ended up fading to finish some 8 lengths behind Devine Entry. However, despite that margin between him and Devine Entry, they were assigned similar TimeformUS Speed Figures for the efforts, due to A Different Style’s involvement in those early fractions. John Servis does not send that many horses over to Aqueduct each winter, but he has had tremendous success with those that he does ship to New York. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 26 (31 percent, $6.69 ROI) at Aqueduct on the dirt. A Different Style is certainly fast enough to make the lead here, but I think Kendrick Carmouche will have some options, since he has successfully stalked the pace in the past.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6,7