PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 1/1A - 5
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 1A - 5 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   1 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 7:   10 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   3 - 7 - 10 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 1: MY INSPIRATION (#2)
There’s very little form on which to base opinions in this maiden claiming event, so it doesn’t take that much to sway me. I know that I don’t want to settle for short prices, and I imagine that Johnselectrideride, Lucky Mucho Man, and Bointheback will vie for favoritism. Johnselectricride was green in his debut but didn’t do much running, though he does have room for improvement with blinkers getting added. Lucky Mucho Man is the lone firster and is perhaps appealing sheerly on that basis, though his pedigree is geared more towards longer trips. There was a time when Bointheback would have been formidable against this field, but he’s really gone the wrong way as of late and is coming off a pair of ugly efforts. I want to go in a different direction with My Inspiration. He’s another who finished far back in his only career start, but he certainly has a right to do better. That Jan 28 affair was a tougher race than this one despite being contested at the same level. He was outrun early and seemed to lose focus on the far turn when put in tight quarters. Yet he was really running through the stretch, finishing up faster than most while passing half the field. This gelding is on the smaller side and may be limited in terms of speed, but his debut is an effort to build upon and I think there’s upside.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,8

RACE 3: SEAHORSE D’ORO (#2)
Freddymo Factor could go favored here off her narrow loss at this level last time out. While she ran a competitive race that day, she really is more of a turf horse. She also got a great trip stalking outside on a day when the rail was dead. She’s obviously a contender here, but I prefer some others at bigger prices. Both Scott Alaia and Raffinity are somewhat appealing off the claim for a pair of sharp barns. Scott Alaia goes out for Michelle Nevin, and Raffinity was claimed by Michelle Giangiulio. I prefer the recent form of Scott Alaia, but Raffinity has back races for Rob Atras that would make her dangerous if the new barn can bring out that form. I’m going in a different direction with Seahorse d’Oro. This horse was an interesting claim by Ray Handal two back, since he actually had this horse at the start of her career before she was claimed out of her debut. In her first start off the claim last time, she actually ran deceptively well. That pace held together and she was the only runner to make a significant run from the back of the pack, doing so while racing wide against a strong rail bias on Jan. 23. I like her stretching back out in distance to a mile, and she should be a decent price with Jalon Samuel named to ride again.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,3,4,5

RACE 4: PAZZION (#2)
This race centers around horses out of that Jan. 22 race at this level. Carly Hustle ran well that day since she was most against the track bias. The rail was the place to be, and she was 3-wide or more for her entire trip. She finished back in fifth but arguably could have won with a different trip. The problem is that she’s part of an entry again and will be among the shorter prices based on her stablemate’s performance in the same race. Given the difference in price, I’m instead taking Pazzion out of that race. I had thought she was somewhat interesting last time at 31-1, and she certainly outran her odds. She wasn’t as compromised by the track bias as Carly Hustle, since she was inside for a few furlongs on the backstretch and turn before angling down inside for the stretch run. However, she had other issues, as she was off slowly and had to alter course multiple times during the race. She finished up best of all and galloped out very strongly past the winner. Ralph D’Alessandro’s runners tend to outrun their odds at this meet, and I think she can improve on that last-out effort second of the layoff.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5

RACE 7: MEDICINE TAIL (#10)
American Monarch figures to go favored here after getting bet down to a ridiculous even-money at this level last time. He didn’t run to that support, but did nevertheless put in a decent effort to be second behind the improved Sound Money. A repeat of that performance puts him in the mix once again, but this is a competitive field and I don’t need the clear favorite at another underlaid price. One of the more obvious alternative is Scocciatore, who makes his first start off the claim for Tom Morley. This barn has had some success off the claim recently, though Morley is no longer on the same hot streak that we witnessed last fall. That said, this gelding makes some sense here based on his limited dirt efforts. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to get back to his blowout victory from Saratoga over the summer, but he ran fine last time when just missing against New York-breds. I expect him to get a more aggressive ride this time from Luis Rodriguez. Despite the large field, I don’t see that much early speed in this race so I want runners that can be forwardly placed. My top pick at an even bigger price is Medicine Tail. This horse showed some talent on the dirt when he was a younger horse. He picked up a stakes-placing as a 2-year-old, and ran well at Keeneland last April in a fast allowance event for the level. He didn’t fare as well on Apr. 16, but he also got a strange ride that day. He came off the layoff at Turfway last time and put in a deceptively strong effort against a good field. That was a contested pace and he rushed up early before fading. The third-place finisher Pirate Rick, who he dueled with, returned to win with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I expect him to be aggressively ridden from this outside post and I think he’s a real threat getting back on dirt.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,5,6

RACE 8: BARESE (#5)
Bold Journey is the horse to beat off his blowout maiden victory in December. He had shown promise in his career debut and stepped forward last time off the trainer switch to Bill Mott, easily drawing away from that field after setting the pace. The race was flattered when runner-up Golden Code returned to win his next start by over 10 lengths with a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Bold Journey is bred to stretch out as a half-brother to Cigar Mile winner Americanrevolution. My one knock against him is that he was late to change leads in his debut and he failed to change leads in his maiden win. He’s still a bit green, and I wonder if that will affect him as he steps up in class to meet a much tougher field. I prefer his main rival Barese. This horse didn’t run particularly fast in his career debut, but showed promise at Belmont last May. He was off for a long time, but picked up right where he left off in his return in the Rego Park. Dylan Davis gave him a confident ride, stalking outside behind a moderate pace before reeling in the leaders through the stretch. I love the way this horse levels off when he hits top gear, and I’m optimistic that he can handle the mile. He's by versatile sire Laoban and his dam is a full-sister to Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument. The other horse who should have a say in the outcome is G Munning. The mile is a real question for him, but he did beat Bold Journey in each of their career debuts. I thought his connections made a mistake rating him last time, and he figures to get a more aggressive ride on the stretch-out.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 5 with 1,7 with 1,2,6,7