by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   8 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 9 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   12 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 6:   7 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 7:   11 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   9 - 8 - 5 - 7

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: SPLIT VERDICT (#8)
Inclunation, the half of the Mertkan Kantarmaci entry who will participate in this race, has had his chances at this level and seems like a bad bet at what figures to be another short price. If he merely repeats his last effort he’s likely to be around at the finish due to a lack of serious competition, but others will offer better value. I suppose a horse like Bronxville is a threat to wire the field, but he seems like a dicey proposition going this one-mile distance. He’s run some competitive speed figures going route distances, but he’s been much more of a one-dimensional speedball recently. Kendrick Carmouche has his work cut out for him trying to ration out his stamina over this trip. I’d rather take a shot with Split Verdict second off the layoff. Some may dismiss this horse as a has-been following his disappointing effort first off the layoff for this barn last time. He’s clearly not capable of producing the speed figures that he posted early in his career, but I think it’s premature to give up on him at this claiming level. While he wasn’t competitive last time, 6 furlongs is just too short for him, and he never had a chance to close over a surface that was favoring horses on the lead throughout the day. He didn’t make much of an impression late, but he was finding his best stride across the wire. This time he should be able to sit closer to the pace from this outside post position and the added distance will allow him to make better use of his stamina. He’s not fully trustworthy, but he seems like the best choice out of many flawed options.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,7
 

RACE 4: SHARP STARR (#4)
If not for that baffling effort on New Year's Day, Bankers Daughter would be the undeniable favorite in this spot. That 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned two back would likely be good enough to beat this field, and she even ran well in her career debut when overcoming a wide trip to be a solid fourth. So what happened last time? The only major difference from her other races was that she was forced to race inside of rivals for the first time, but she’s drawn inside again today. She was also glued to the rail in the stretch while most of the best running was done in outside paths, though I didn’t get the sense there was a severe bias. If you think those excuses are legitimate, she’s the one you want here, but I’m a little skeptical. There are a couple of intriguing second-time starters to consider. Linda Rice’s Stonezapper will attract support due to her superb record with this move, and I have no problem with that horse. Yet my top pick is Sharp Starr. This filly ran like one who just needed more ground in her debut and she gets slightly more distance here. She broke with the field but was slow into stride and dropped back while wide on the turn. She only found her best stride in the stretch and was quickly making up ground while still racing on her wrong lead. Sharp Starr only earned a 60 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but runner-up Nicky Scissors did return to win improving her figure by 12 points and the winner improved by 20 points next time out. All three of her siblings to race have been best routing, topped by half-a-million dollar earner Papa Shot. Furthermore, Horacio DePaz is an excellent 8 for 22 (36%, $4.41 ROI) with maiden second-time starters on dirt over the past five years.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,7,9
 

RACE 6: ARISTOCRATIC (#7)
Potential favorite Hawaiian Noises was no match for Grade 1 winner Complexity two back but rebounded to easily defeat an overmatched field as the odds-on choice last time. While he earned a respectable speed figure, he got a perfect trip. I won’t put anything past this barn, but this runner is facing a much sterner test here and seems a little dicey at what figures to be a short price. I’m similarly skeptical of his former stablemate Life In Shambles, who was claimed away from Servis by Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. He’d be tough if able to repeat that recent performance, but a lot of things went his way that day and he’s meeting a tougher field this time. I prefer others, and one of the more trustworthy contenders appears to be Win With Pride. This gelding is probably no longer capable of delivering the kind of performances we saw from him last winter, but his two recent efforts since returning from a layoff are actually better than they seem. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is the likely speed Aristocratic. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner, and that is going to make this horse awfully dangerous. He found himself dueling for the lead through quick fractions last time and was swallowed up late by a couple of deep closers. Nevertheless he was extremely game that day and will be tough here with a similar effort. This is the kind of horse who can relax on the lead when allowed to do so, and he usually runs his best speed figures under those circumstances, as he did when winning by over 6 lengths on Nov. 3. If Eric Cancel is aggressive and secures the front, I believe he’ll be difficult to reel in.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 4,6 with 2,3,4,6,8
 

RACE 7: COOLBOY (#11)
It’s pretty clear that Bulwark is the horse to beat as he steps up to face winners for the first time. While it may have been a surprise to some, there’s no denying that his last performance was more than good enough to beat most N1X allowance fields if he’s able to repeat it. The 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that performance is the highest number in this field and it appears to be legitimate, considering that runner-up Quickflash returned to break his maiden with an improved speed figure in his subsequent start. Bulwark showed improved early speed last time, but he may not be a horse who needs the lead in order to be successful. I’m not against him in this spot, but there are other contenders to consider at better prices. The Drawing Away Stables entry is likely to take plenty of money as perhaps the close second choice, and I’m against this pair. Both Bronx Bomber and Freudian Sip have done their best work against cheaper foes. The former beat a very weak field last time and the latter would need to get significantly faster first off the claim for Linda Rice. There are far more intriguing options to consider. Bustin Hoffman makes some sense after he was unable to reel in a longshot winner over a very speed-favoring track last time. He earned speed figures that would make him formidable here in late 2019, but his form has tailed off a bit in recent starts. If I’m going to take a horse out of that Jan. 18 affair, I want it to be Coolboy at what figures to be a more enticing price. Coolboy lost all chance at the start that day as he was squeezed between rivals and shuffled back to last immediately after the start. That was a disastrous development for a horse whose greatest weapon is his early speed. I’m drawing a line through that race and evaluating him based on his prior form. His previous effort on Dec. 21 was stellar, as he laid down very fast early splits and opened up a large lead in upper stretch before getting run down by the superior Big Engine. Yet even after he was passed by that rival he gamely tried to battle back in the shadow of the wire. He earned an impressive 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance. Now he’s reunited with regular rider Joey Martinez and he figures to play out as the speed of the speeds form this outside draw.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,6,7,8,9
Trifecta: 8,11 with 8,11 with 1,6,7,9
 

RACE 8: BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE (#3)
This race features a rematch of the La Verdad, in which Cash Offer ran down Kept True in the final furlong as both upset the heavy favorite Pauseforthecause. Both of those newly-turned 4-year-olds seem like top contenders once again in this Broadway, but a few things are different this time. They’re likely to encounter a fast track on Saturday and they’re cutting back in distance to 6 furlongs. The change in trip figures to benefit Kept True, who seems to have some distance limitations, but these two remain difficult to separate. My main issue with taking either one at a short price is that neither filly owns a significant speed figure edge over this field despite having compiled admirable résumés while making the most of their opportunities. I’ll use them defensively, but I think you can make a case for some better prices. One of those alternatives is Hay Field, who has won three straight races at the N2X allowance level while racing for the $40,000 optional tag. She makes her fifth consecutive start off the claim, this time for the Antonio Arriaga barn. It’s curious that her prior connections have been reluctant to step her up in class, but she certainly fits here based on speed figures. I’m using all of these runners, but my top pick is the 6-year-old mare Bluegrass Jamboree. Her form looks a little inconsistent compared to those aforementioned contenders, but I think you can make some excuses for her poor efforts. She didn’t get the right trip off the layoff two back in that stakes as she was always out of position while getting a curious ride. She got things back on track last time and was only unable to reel in Kept True because that rival got the jump on her after stalking a slow pace. Bluegrass Jamboree did very well to close into that slow pace, signaling that she still has plenty of run in those legs. This time she figures to get a bit more pace ahead of her with Stonesintheroad in the mix and it’s not like she’s some deep closer that needs a pace collapse. Six furlongs is the perfect distance and she figures to be a square price.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5 with ALL