by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 8 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 11 - 12 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 9 - 6 - 4 - 5
RACE 4: BECCA TAKES CHARGE (#8)
The horse to beat is probably Cheatham Hill, who disappointed as the 4-5 favorite in her second start on Jan. 11. She was heavily supported following her visually impressive debut, in which she closed to be second behind the subsequently stakes-placed filly Shelley Ann. Those looking to make an excuse for her last effort will note that she was forced wide around the far turn, but she still was supposed to have more of an answer in the lane. While trainer Jason Servis does many things well, he has poor numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is just 3 for 25 (12 percent, $0.68 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes on the dirt. At a relatively short price, I’m against her. I strongly prefer the likely second choice, Becca Takes Charge. She didn’t run particularly well in her debut, but that’s typical of Linda Rice’s first-time starters. At least this filly showed a bit of speed as she chased an honest pace before tiring while drifting wide in the lane. That race should have served as a useful tightener, and now she stretches out to a mile for her second start. Unlike Servis, Rice sports outstanding numbers with this move. Over the past five years, she is 10 for 25 (40 percent, $2.60 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to dirt routes in their second starts. Despite the fact that this filly faded late in her debut, she’s actually bred to handle added ground as a daughter of Will Take Charge out of a dam who was bred to run long. Without an established front-runner in this field, Reylu Gutierrez should take advantage of this one’s natural speed over a track that has been favoring rail runners. At a bigger price, I also want to use fellow second-time starter Two Graces prominently. This filly did not do much running in her debut, as she belatedly passed some tired rivals in the lane as the race was falling apart. Yet, she galloped out with good energy and she is bred to improve with added distance while going out for connections that often get overlooked.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 8 with 1,5 with 1,3,5,6,7
RACE 7: WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD (#2)
Monteleone has to be considered the horse to beat as he seeks his fourth consecutive victory while steadily climbing the class ladder. However, he will face a new obstacle on Saturday – a fast track. This gelding clearly has a strong affinity for wet surfaces, particularly sealed ones, and he has gotten such going in all the victories during his win streak. Yet not only must he contend with a new surface, the waters get much deeper as he moves into N1X allowance company. His TimeformUS Speed Figures suggest that he stacks up with this group, but they don’t give him any kind of advantage. I’m somewhat against him, and I hold Tap Master in similar regard. He makes that same class move after beating starter-allowance foes last time, but he benefited from a fantastic trip that day. In my opinion, the two runners you want are those with proven form at this level. Royal Asset would be a massive threat were he to run back to his Dec. 15 performance, in which he was just a length behind subsequent stakes winner Honor Up. However, his most recent start was poor. I’m concerned that he took no money that day, and now Rudy reaches out to a second-tier rider. Therefore, my top pick is Wegotoldyougotsold. This gelding’s first two starts for the Bruce Levine barn would likely beat this field. He trounced Monteleone when they met on Nov. 30, and it was no disgrace losing to a freakish effort from Fully Vested in the slop two back. Some may be deterred by his seventh-place finish at 5-2 last time, but I think he had an excuse for that performance. While there was not a true golden rail on Jan. 26, horses racing inside did appear to have an advantage, and that was especially true during the race this horse exits. He was wide throughout and only finished two lengths behind the runner-up, as they were all far behind the rail-skimming winner. This time the Pace Projector is predicting a scenario that is far more favorable to front-runners, and he figures to work out a great trip stalking Royal Asset. I believe this runner is going to rebound with an improved performance this afternoon.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,4,5
RACE 8: FILIBUSTIN (#6)
The main difficulty for handicappers analyzing this Broadway is deciding how to assess Linda Rice’s entrants. Both are coming off significant layoffs and ran poorly prior to being sent to the sidelines. Both will generate some support in the wagering based on their prior form, and I’m concerned that one or both will need a start off the layoff. Holiday Disguise is probably the class of the field, but six furlongs has always been a bit short for her. This is the right distance for Startwithsilver, but I’m concerned that she’s not going to get the kind of pace setup that she requires. In some ways, Pauseforthecause is the horse to beat. She has a significant recency edge on the two Rice mares, and she’s been in excellent form. I thought her Iroquois performance was excellent, and I won’t hold her loss behind Kathryn the Wise in the slop against her. If she breaks well, which isn’t a guarantee for this filly, she should work out a good stalking trip. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is the likely speed, Filibustin. The Pace Projector is not characterizing the dynamics of this race as either fast or slow, but it does indicate that this speedy filly should have the early lead to herself. She actually ran great in the Iroquois two back, setting an honest pace before fading in the last furlong. Her 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance makes her very competitive against this group. She didn’t quite get back to that level in her first start for the Gary Contessa barn last time, but I liked the way she finished up after relaxing on the lead. It hasn’t hurt to have speed in recent days, and I think Filibustin could be sitting on another big effort.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7
RACE 9: SIMBASALLTROUBLE (#9)
Two of the runners likely to attract the most support in this finale are exiting the same Jan. 25 race at this level. That day, there is no doubt that Tazmonian Devil ran the best race, as he made a wide, premature move on the far turn and just flattened out in the lane while unable to get past favored Poker Game. Based solely on that performance, he is a top contender in this spot. However, his prior efforts were not nearly that encouraging, whereas Better Bank On It had previously run faster than he did when finishing third behind Tazmonian Devil on Jan. 25. I think Bettor Bank On It is likely to be favored in this spot given his overall body of work at this level, but I won’t be shocked if one of the bigger prices steps up to beat him, as Tazmonian Devil did last time. I’m using both of these horses, as well as Everything Pazible, who closed belatedly for fourth in that same race last time. Yet, this race also includes a few new faces who are stretching out for the first time, and I believe one in particular merits serious consideration. Simbasalltrouble didn’t take much money when he debuted at a tougher maiden claiming level on Jan. 1, and I didn’t think he did all that much running while crossing the wire far behind the winner in 5th. I was far more encouraged by what I saw out of him in his second appearance. Dropping to today’s $30,000 level, little went right for him during the race. The horse to his outside crossed over into his path soon after the start, forcing Ruben Silvera to steady to the back of the pack. The race was mostly dominated towards the front end, so Simbasalltrouble had little chance to make up ground. Nevertheless, he did make an eye-catching – if fleeting – wide move into contention on the far turn before flattening out while racing wide into the stretch. As I previously noted, you did not want to be too wide on Jan. 26, so Simbasalltrouble’s trip was never going to work out. Now he’s stretching out in distance, and he’s certainly bred to do so. He’s by versatile sire Frost Giant out of a dam who is a half-sister to seasoned dirt routers Empire Dreams and Dynamax Prime.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,5,6