by David Aragona
We get a brief but welcome respite from this winter's steady diet of short fields with this excellent Saturday card at the Big A. There are interesting wagering opportunities throughout, with plenty to discuss in almost every one of these races. The featured Haynesfield Stakes goes as Race 3 and contains a well-matched crew of New York-breds despite drawing just 6 runners. However, the highlight of the card, at least from an overall talent perspective, may come later when Preservationist makes his first start against winners in Race 8 after running fast times in his first few starts against maidens.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 2: 3 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 10 - 8 - 1
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 10 - 5
RACE 1: TIME EXPIRED (#5)
The horse to beat in the opener is Daring Destiny, who handled the switch to dirt last time when hanging on for second after drifting out at the top of the stretch. His erratic course interfered with the path of Barefoot Angel, who was attempting to join the leaders with a wide move at the time of the incident. Both of these runners ran well and are major players again here. The other horse likely to attract significant play is Carthon, who returns from a lengthy layoff and drops in for a tag. He ran plenty of speed figures that would give him a serious chance here, but it remains to be seen if he’s the same horse now that so much time has passed. I’m a bit skeptical, but I’ll use him defensively. The horse I want to bet is actually a different runner out of that Feb. 3 event that Daring Destiny exits. Time Expired was making his debut in that race and performed like a horse who badly needed his initial start. He was bumped from both sides coming out of the gate and dropped well out of contention soon thereafter while appearing to react badly to the kickback. He did little running for about a half-mile but was actually making up some ground at the end once Joe Rocco Jr. got after him at the top of the stretch. Now he gets a positive rider switch to Trevor McCarthy. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him show better early speed and put forth a more professional effort.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,8
RACE 2: SWIPING DAN (#3)
The two horses likely to attract the majority of the play are Egyptian Pioneer and Swiping Dan. The former faced a much stronger field when making his debut last time. He never really threatened, but he did finish just less than four lengths out of second place in what was a reasonably fast race. His full sibling Courageous Julie was best going route distances, so the stretch-out in distance should not be a problem. He’s one to use, but I prefer his main rival, Swiping Dan. This horse faced tougher company in his two prior route tries, which both came at the maiden special weight level. Since then, he’s lost twice against maiden-claiming company, but he intrigues me as he stretches out in distance once again. Kelly Breen has very good numbers with maidens stretching out on dirt, though most of those winners – unlike this horse – were stretching out for the first time. Nevertheless, I expect him to run much better than he did in his return following a three-month layoff back on Feb. 1. That day, racing with blinkers for the first time, he repeatedly shied away from runners ranging up on his outside and essentially took himself out of the race. The blinkers don’t come off here, but I imagine his connections will make some adjustments to correct that behavior. He’s bred to handle longer distances, and I think we’ll see an improved effort. I'll use him with the Rudy Rodriguez favorite, but I also want to throw in My Pirate, who was hindered by a wide trip against a gold rail last time. He'll need to run significantly faster than he has previously, but it's certainly possible.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6
RACE 4: THIRSTY DONNERSTAG (#3)
Fielding Gold is once again the horse to beat after another solid effort at this level in his last start. Jan. 26 was a day that strongly favored horses racing on the rail, and Fielding Gold was chasing about two wide throughout. All things considered, he did well to hang on for second. That performance built nicely on his prior effort, when he overcame a slow start to again grab a runner-up placing. I respect him, but this race came up tougher. Horses like Lost Iron and Mr. Euro are new faces who figure to take money, but I actually prefer others out of that same Jan. 26 race that Fielding Gold exits. Wilshire Star is a longshot to consider after trouble at the start prevented him from achieving his preferred position on the lead. He could run better here, but the horse who really interests me is Thirsty Donnerstag. The Pace Projector is predicting that this race could feature a fast pace, and that would suit this deep closer. Last time, Abel Lezcano had no choice but to steer him well off the rail to commence his rally around the half-mile pole, and that wide trip certainly hindered his chances. He actually did quite well to get up for third. It was yet another solid effort by a horse who has subtly been improving over the winter. Two back, he closed well for fourth against a tougher field when against the grain of the track, and this one-mile distance suits him better.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,8,10
RACE 6: EIGHTH COMMANDMENT (#1)
I don’t want to bet Awsum Roar as one of the favorites in this race. She’s run well in all three starts, but those were turf races back in 2016. Wesley Ward has solid numbers with sprinters coming off layoffs, but most of those were turf and synthetic runners. I’m skeptical of her making the surface switch in a race that features other speed. The most interesting runners in this race are those exiting the seventh race on Jan. 21. Strawberry Tequila ran the best race that day, but she got a very good trip, racing three wide on a day when you wanted to avoid the rail. That was not the case for Eighth Commandment, whose rider hugged the rail all the way as she attempted to rally from well back in the pack. Despite racing on the worst part of the track, she was making up a ton of ground at the end and galloped out well in front just past the wire. I think this mare has really improved for David Donk, and the 6 1/2-furlong distance should be a better fit for her. I'll use her with Satin Sheets, who was about 1 or 2 paths off the rail for much of that Jan. 21 race but nevertheless put in a better performance than she had in her prior starts. Also, Ribbonite should not be completely dismissed at a big price, since she, too, was right on the rail while setting the pace.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 7: GEHRIG (#7)
There’s quite a bit going on in a race where I think the favorites are somewhat vulnerable. The two runners likely to go off as the public’s top choices are Javelin and I Want Mo. The former gets claimed away from Rudy Rodriguez after disappointing at a very short price just 13 days ago. He’s run plenty of prior races that would easily beat this field, but his current form has to be called into question following that dull effort off the layoff. I Want Mo earned one of the highest recent speed figures in the field for his maiden win last time, and Danny Gargan has very strong numbers with horses coming off maiden victories on the dirt. I think he’s the more dangerous of the short prices as runner-up Go Big Or Go Home returned to win his next start. The only problem with the performance is that I Want Mo was well-positioned on a very good rail for at least half of that race. I’ll use him, but I want to take a look at some others at better prices. My top selection is coming out of a race on another gold rail day, Jan. 26. Gehrig raced 3-wide throughout in an event that was won by a horse that rode the inside to victory. He showed good early speed and appeared to be traveling well on the turn before abruptly stopping in the stretch. I expect him to run much better here, and he can use his tactical speed to attain good early position in a race that is not expected to feature a particularly fast pace. The other horse that was badly compromised by his trip in that same Jan. 26 race was Quai Voltaire. He was shuffled back early and then had to go extremely wide when rallying through the lane. He’s another candidate to rebound here, but his lack of early speed has to be concern given the expected dynamics of this race.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,8