PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 7 - 4 - 1A
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 6:   4 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 7:   9 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   5 - 9 - 8 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: MONDAY MORNING QB (#4)

The favorites have a definite speed figure advantage in this optional claimer. Sheriff Bianco (#3) looks like the fastest horse coming into this after earning TimeformUS Speed Figures ranging from 113 up to 118 in his last four starts. He regressed slightly when losing at this level last time, but he was being asked to get a mile that day, the farthest he’s ever gone in his career. Now he’s cutting back to a more appropriate distance for the dangerous Linda Rice barn. His main rival appears to be Nabokov (#1), who also sports some strong speed figures. He most recently earned a career-best 114 TimeformUS number last time out when just missing at this level. He arguably ran the best race that day, surviving an early pace duel before just succumbing to his late-running stablemate. King Angelo (#2) is also not without a chance, though he was soundly beaten by Sheriff Bianco two back. However, he didn’t make use of his early speed that day and was finishing well in the stretch once steered into the clear. They’re all win candidates, but I’m going to get a little more creative with Monday Morning Qb (#4). We’ve seen these Lynn Cash horses outrun their odds on a number of occasions this winter, as many of them seem to improve on the NYRA circuit despite showing lackluster form elsewhere. This horse fits that pattern, as he ran better than it might appear in his last appearance at Aqueduct in December. He was contesting a very fast early pace that day and just couldn’t quite hold off the slop-loving Milton the Monster. That race didn’t get much of a speed figure, but other horses have come back to run well out of it. Monday Morning Qb has since regressed at Laurel, but I like him turning back in distance and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll have a tactical advantage.

WIN: #4 Monday Morning Qb, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6: BINGO JOHN (#4)

This $14k conditioned claimer looks particularly wide open. Breadman (#2) would clearly beat this field if he repeated his last effort, in which he won at the $25k N2L level with a solid 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That was a commanding performance, and it was flattered when runner-up Midnight Worker returned to win at the same level two starts later. However, Breadman was a voided claim out of that race, and now he’s been off for over two months. He returns dropping in for a lower tag while getting a low-percentage rider named. Furthermore, Randi Persaud is just 3 for 59 ($0.94 ROI) with last-out winners over the past 5 years. The other horse who figures to take money is Seanan (#5). His recent form isn’t quite as strong, but he is getting a trainer upgrade as he races first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He ran a decent race two back and has prior form that puts him in the mix. Yet this feels like a spot where you want to search for value. Dontbelate (#9) has settled for minor awards recently, but he probably found 9 furlongs to be too far for him last time when fading to third at this level. He had run deceptively well in his prior start, hanging on for third after setting a fast pace. He’s back at the right distance and is drawn well outside. My top pick is Bingo John (#4). Some might find it tough to bet these connections, but he figures to be a square price due to those factors. This horse’s form makes him a pretty logical contender, as he’s been facing tougher fields in open claiming races. He showed surprising early speed before fading two back yet still earned a competitive 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Then last time, he was staying on well for third behind a pair of superior rivals in a tougher spot. He fits well here on the class drop and appears to be rounding back into decent form.

WIN: #4 Bingo John, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 5,9

RACE 7: RIDE UP (#9)

This maiden special weight event is arguably the most interesting race on the card, as you can make a case for many runners and there appear to be some lightly raced horses with potential. Register (#1) might be the horse to beat after finishing second at this level twice in a row. While he ran a faster speed figure last time, I actually thought he ran better in his career debut. He got a pretty rough trip that day, as he was steadied early and then had to awkwardly alter course at the top of the stretch before commencing a rally. Last time he got a much softer trip and wasn’t able to seal the deal. The first time starter who defeated him may be pretty good, but this horse does have some things to prove as he stretches out in distance. Power in Numbers (#4) makes sense as he makes his second career start for Chad Brown. He took plenty of money on debut, but ran like a horse who needed the experience. He broke well but then got mildly shuffled on the backstretch before getting back into the bit and running on for second. He has a right to improve, but I actually preferred the horse who finished right behind him. Ride Up (#9) didn’t take nearly as much money in that spot and he broke slowly from the rail, like many horses from this barn. The pace was fairly slow, so this colt deserves a ton of credit for making much as much ground as he did to run up into third. He also galloped out very strongly, quickly passing both the winner and Power in Numbers after the wire. He didn’t sell for that much at auction, but has a nice pedigree full of quality runners. Furthermore, Linda Rice is 10 for 30 (33%, $2.66 ROI) with maiden second time starters going form sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years. The other horse that I want to use prominently is Egypt (#2). This second time starter is coming back on short rest, having debuted last Saturday. Yet Horacio De Paz is a strong 11 for 36 (31%, $3.04 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years. That was a strong race for the level, and he was off slowly before belatedly making up ground through the lane. This son of Tiznow feels like one that is supposed to get better with added ground and he figures to be a square price.

WIN: #9 Ride Up, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #2 Egypt, at 10-1 or greater