PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   6 - 4 - 5 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 2: RUN CASPER RUN (#2)
I can’t take likely favorite Uno in this $16k claimer. There are so many question marks surrounding this horse as he returns from yet another layoff and drops in for a tag down to the bottom level for the first time in his career. Todd Pletcher is 7 for 34 (21%, $1.11 ROI) first time for a tag with non-maidens in dirt sprints over 5 years, so these types are not performing up to expectations. Uno looked promising in his career debut, but his form has declined with each subsequent start. I’m also not thrilled with his main rival Matty’s Marauder. This horse doesn’t have much early speed and will be looking to pick up pieces in this race. He’s closed decently for third in his last couple of starts, but I think that’s the best we can expect of him and he seems likely to take money off those efforts. Millean is another enigma as he returns from a layoff. His connections are opting to protect him from getting claimed, which might be a good sign. However, 7 furlongs may be too short. My top pick is Run Casper Run. I don’t love his recent form, but I thought he ran well enough two back when getting a very wide trip against a decent field for the level. He actually finished ahead of Matty’s Marauder that day in a race where they both had trouble. Then last time Run Casper Run was wide against a rail bias and Jan. 2. Chris Englehart takes the blinkers off as he stretches out a furlong, and he figures to be a square price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5

RACE 5: CERRETTA (#4)
The barn change seemed to wake up Kisses for Emily last time, as she showed a new dimension, closing from off the pace to finish a strong second. While she did have to overcome a slow start, she was aided by the track profile, as she rode the rail for much of her trip before angling out in the stretch on a day when the inside was an advantage. That said, she’s shown some promise along the way and could finally be figuring things out. I don’t think she’s necessarily much better than Darn That Song from the same race. Darn That Song was briefly on the rail early, but got steadied and angled off the gold rail on the turn before understandably flattening out. I prefer them to some others who could attract support. True Empress has had her chances but should be competitive here if running back to her performance two back. Celine the Queen has a ton of early speed, but she hasn’t been able to sustain it in her two prior runs. I want to go in a different direction with one of the first time starters. Cerretta is a daughter of 10% debut sire Midnight Lute. While her dam was winless in two starts, she handled dirt and has produced one winner, a turf horse. H. James Bond is 0 for 35 with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years, but he’s had some big prices hit the board in that sample. Notably, Bond has run 7 first time starters at this current Aqueduct meet, and 4 of those 7 have finished second at odds of 5-2, 9-1, 11-1, and 15-1. She posted some fast workouts at Saratoga last fall, and Bond’s go-to rider McCarthy takes the mount.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,7,8

RACE 6: LITTERBOX (#1)
I don’t want to settle for potential favorite Breaking Stones in this spot. He’s a little dressed up off his runner-up finish back on Nov. 26 behind Profusion. That’s proven to be a fairly weak race, and I haven’t been thrilled with his two efforts since then. I’m also not convinced that turning back in distance to 7 furlongs necessarily helps his cause, though his early speed could make him dangerous. Majestic Tiger makes a certain amount of sense as he makes his first start off the claim for Chris Englehart. I can’t say that I loved either of his dirt races against maidens, but he did earn speed figures that put him in the mix prior to trying winners last time. I want to go in a different direction, and consider some horses exiting the 7th race on Feb. 3. Ghostmon can likely do better out of there after getting away sluggishly and trying to rally belatedly. However the horse that interests me most from that heat is Litterbox. He was very close to the deal rail for much of his trip and actually was in contention until the eighth pole before tiring late. He’s caught wet tracks in three consecutive starts and he doesn’t appear to relish that kind of going. He’s previously run competitive speed figures over fast tracks and he wouldn’t even need to find his best form to beat this field.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6,7

RACE 8: MY BOY TATE (#4)
This Hollie Hughes is essentially a two-horse affair between the expected favorites. Wudda U Think Now figures to attract support given his likely pace advantage. He should be the controlling speed here, depending on how much pressure Runningwscissors applies. Wudda U Think Now comes off a dominant score against optional claiming foes, winning by over 10 lengths. He got a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, knocked down from a 125 final time number due to setting a very slow pace. In addition to having soft fractions in his favor, he also was riding a gold rail on Jan. 16, which almost surely enhanced his performance. He’s still dangerous here if getting back to his prior form, but I don’t want to take him as the favorite. I prefer My Boy Tate. This likable 8-year-old gelding is seeking his third victory in this race and he’s coming into it in great form. He got disqualified out of his victory in the Say Florida Sandy last time, but he ran the best race that day, slicing between horses to get up over his rival Lobsta. I don’t mind the cutback to 6 furlongs, and he has the tactical speed to not lose contact with his main rival early, as long as Manny Franco rides him with some awareness of the pace. I’ll take My Boy Tate’s strong finish over Wudda U Think Now’s tactical speed.

Win: 4
Trifecta: 4 with 2 with 3,6