by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 4 - 5 - 1A
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 5 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 9 - 8
Race 8: 3 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 10: 13 - 12 - 7 - 3
RACE 2: ITGOT GRANDMA (#6)
It will be interesting to compare this race to the Withers run later today, both in terms of the final time and as a gauge of Moretti’s ability to step up into stakes company. Four horses who finished behind Moretti in his Dec. 20 maiden score are back in this race, and two of them figure to be among the public choices. The horse to beat is clearly Motagally, who goes out for Chad Brown and has been steadily improving. He handled the distance last time and has already run fast enough to win at this level. I’m definitely using him, but I thought Stilts ran the more impressive race last time when he lost to Motagally by a nose. Stilts was three wide around the far turn and then was forced to make an early move into the slow pace on the backstretch before going four wide into the far turn. According to Trakus, Stilts traveled 52 feet farther than Motagally, and they basically finished on even terms. I’m using him prominently, but I want to look elsewhere for my top selection. Itgot Grandma is an intriguing new face as he stretches out around two turns for the first time. While he’s yet to run a particularly fast race, I can make some excuses for his first two starts. He was hindered by a slow pace in his debut, and he never really had a chance to close when stuck on the rail behind a gate-to-wire winner at Laurel last time. The added distance figures to aid his cause since his dam won stakes going as far as 1 1/4 miles. She has produced a pair of top-quality foals in Travers runner-up American Freedom and graded stakes-winning router Gottcha Gold. As a son of Congrats, Itgot Grandma is a very close relative to American Freedom (by Pulpit), and I believe we’re going to see a different horse this time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 3: DADDY D T (#5)
Lazarus Project is obviously the horse to beat as he gets some serious class relief. Last out on Dec. 30, he dropped in for a tag for the first time since Chris Englehart claimed him last year, and he didn’t run particularly well. However, I don’t think he was helped by his rider’s decision to close up the rail in the stretch. Prior to that, Lazarus Project had run a series of speed figures that would beat this field, all while facing much tougher company. The problem is that he so rarely wins and has been somewhat reluctant to pass foes in the lane. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, which could complicate this favorite’s assignment. There is very little early speed signed on, and that should favor Daddy D T. I know many will find him difficult to endorse after he lost in his first start off the claim, but I think it’s worth rewatching that race. He was always in a bad position that day once he failed to make the lead and was stymied in behind tiring runners at a critical point approaching the quarter pole. This time, he’s supposed to be in front if he breaks cleanly. I’m hoping he can remember the horse that he was a few months ago and step forward in his second start for this barn.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7
RACE 5: ORBILICIOUS (#5)
There is very little form to analyze in this wide-open maiden claiming event. I suppose Kathy’s Cause is the horse to beat after she contended at this level over a muddy surface last time. While I wasn’t thrilled with her performance that day, it’s possible that she didn’t really care for the surface. She actually ran better in her only other dirt start, which came going a route of ground over a fast track. If she repeats that performance, I think she has a chance to beat these, but there are many unknowns in this field. Take It All Back probably got a more taxing trip that Kathy’s Cause in that Dec. 22 race, since she was wide around the turn and into the stretch. I suppose she can improve second time out, but I just don’t think very highly of that race in terms of overall quality. I’m always on the lookout for intriguing horses dropping in class in races like this, and I think Orbilicious fits that bill. She’s hard to recommend off her debut speed figure, but I think she rates to improve significant in this second start. A number of horses exiting that She Takes Charge maiden event have returned to improve their speed figures significantly in subsequent starts. Orbilicious did not break that alertly and rushed up to briefly chase the leaders before fading. Hector Diaz really did not persevere with her in the stretch, exaggerating her margin of defeat. This time, I would expect Eric Cancel to be aggressive leaving the gate, and I think she could have a real chance to lead this field from gate to wire on the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,8,10
RACE 8: THREE TO THIRTEEN (#3)
I found this to be the most confusing race on the card. Some may gravitate toward Dublinthepleasure, who ran a competitive speed figure when losing by a neck against cheaper claiming foes last time. Third-place finisher Shalako did come back to win, but he did so under very favorable circumstances. I think this horse is unlikely to get another perfect trip, and I wan to look elsewhere. Rudy Rodriguez has two viable contenders. I suppose Papa Shot will attract more support of the pair, as he earned a speed figure that would make him pretty formidable in this spot when last seen on Jan. 4. That race was around two turns, but he has been proficient going shorter in the past. While there is a strong case to be made for him, I don’t like the steady decline in class after the claim by Rudy. It’s been a while since he’s been actively involved in deep stretch, and I don’t have much faith that he still has the desire to compete. I actually prefer Horoscope as he stretches back out in distance. I’ve always thought that a mile is a bit of a stretch for him, but he should work out a good trip stalking the pace, and he’s faced significantly tougher company in most of his recent starts. I’m definitely using both of these horses, but my top pick is Three to Thirteen. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and one of the main pace players, Wicked Macho, is going to scratch and run on Sunday instead. That should leave Three to Thirteen in a position to control affairs up front, and he has been quite dangerous when afforded such an opportunity. His recent form may look spotty, but he actually ran very well three back after setting a swift pace, and he never had a chance when forced to rate in a fast-paced sprint last time. When he has been allowed to set pedestrian fractions, he’s proven difficult to catch.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,8,9
Trifecta: 3 with 4,9 with 1,2,4,8,9
RACE 10: ALTESINO (#13)
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but the overall dynamics of this race are a little bit murky. For instance, a horse like Quest for Fire is supposed to show a ton of speed in this race, but his recent uncompetitive efforts and the drop in class have to make you wonder about how much he’ll have to offer. Thefinalcrazydude is probably the horse to beat after the scratch of Hot Mesa, but the 6 1/2 furlong distance of this race could prove troublesome for him. He was unable to hang on going shorter distances in two of his last three starts, and this time he has to make the lead while outrunning Quest for Fire through the opening quarter mile. I’m using him, but I think there are late runners in this race that are more interesting at enticing prices. My top pick is Altesino. I realize that his three efforts since returning from the layoff have been lackluster, but I thought he actually showed some signs of life last time. He broke slowly, as he usually does, but I thought Reylu Gutierrez was far too impatient as he rode him into the race on the backstretch. He ended up racing about 4- to 5-wide around the far turn while making a premature move into contention. That race was dominated on the front end, so he actually did well to finish fourth despite the difficult trip. This time, he should be able to settle farther back in the pack and launch one late run, as long as the pace develops as predicted. There was a time when he was capable of running races that would easily beat this field and I think there’s a chance that he could be regaining some of that form.
Win: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 3,7,12