by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 8 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 8 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 4 - 9
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 9: 9 - 7 - 10 - 3
RACE 1: TEN TWENTY NINE (#2)
With the scratch of likely favorite Purchasing Power, Tiz No Bluff becomes even more formidable at first glance. However, upon further examination, I think he’s a shaky proposition, especially as a prohibitive favorite. He did run competitive races against the likes of classy horses Mr. Dougie Fresh and Stan the Man last spring, but his form steadily declined for Michelle Nevin over the course of the season. I did not like his last effort against claiming company and he now hasn’t been seen in nearly 5 months. This 7-year-old clearly has plenty of physical issues, since he’s only made 12 starts in a career littered with layoff lines. As he gets older, I’m less confident that he’s going to be able to regain his top form. Given my reservations about the favorite, I want to look for a better price in this race. One horse that I would prefer to take is Never Before, since he at least has some upside in his second start off the layoff for the capable Charlton Baker barn. However, my top pick is longshot Ten Twenty Nine. I tried this horse two back after his encouraging return effort on Dec. 23 and he didn’t get enough pace ahead of him. Prior to the layoff, he had run his best races going a mile, so it was hardly surprising that he took a step forward when stretched out to that distance last time. His Dec. 23 effort suggested that he may have returned as an improved horse and his last race confirms it. The main track on Jan. 26 was beginning to favor inside runners at that point in the day and Ten Twenty Nine was the only horse to make a sustained wide run in a race otherwise dominated by front-runners that stayed towards the inside. His 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance is the highest last-out number in the field and I believe a repeat of that race can put him in the winner’s circle.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6
RACE 2: ALPHADORA (#8)
This is an interesting race for trip handicappers to dissect since four of the eight runners are exiting a common last race in which all had trips worth discussing. Ja’s Malibu is likely to be the favorite off her second-place finish in that Feb. 3 heat, yet that effort is not quite as strong as it appears. That race was run on a day that featured a significant rail bias on the main track, and Ja’s Malibu was the only horse to stay on the rail throughout her trip. Winner Tappanzee also rode the rail for a significant portion of the race and only angled outside to pass Ja’s Malibu in the late stages. I would rather take horses who were against the grain of the track that day. One of those is Awillaway, who seems like a logical alternative off her superior debut speed figure. However, I have some doubts about the veracity of that number. The figures that race was assigned represent massive improvement for the winner, and first-time starters comprised the rest of the field. If I’m going to support a horse out of that Feb. 3 race, I would rather look at the two second-time starters drawn to the outside. Today Comes Once is one to consider after she closed belatedly to be a distant third. Those analyzing her trip will note that she was off the rail while making up ground during the stretch run, but she also spent significant time inside early in the race. In my opinion, the horse who actually had the tougher trip was Alphadora, who finished just a half-length behind Today Comes Once. Alphadora was very wide early and continued to race off the rail until angling in at the quarter pole. According to Trakus, she covered significantly more ground on the turn than all of the aforementioned runners. She did ride the rail for a portion of the stretch drive, but that’s not as important to me given her taxing trip in the early stages. She is going to be the biggest price of all due to the connections, but I think she actually possesses some ability.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,6,7
RACE 4: KID IS FROSTY (#3)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Kid Is Frosty, who is very likely to win this race if she repeats her last effort. She only earned an 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day and finished just one length ahead of today’s rival Harley Q. However, the Brad Cox-trained filly ran a far superior race that rival in a performance that was far stronger than any speed figure can illustrate. The main track was strongly favoring inside runners on Feb. 3 and Kid Is Frosty ran a spectacular race to be second after racing 3-wide for the majority of her trip. By contrast, Harley Q rode the rail for the first 5 furlongs of that race before tipping out at the top of the stretch, a much more favorable trip. Not only was Kid Is Frosty against the grain of the track, but she made an early move into a very fast pace that ended up collapsing, allowing a deep closer to win. This time, Kid Is Frosty should work out another stalking trip on a fair track and I believe she will be very difficult to beat. Her main rivals may be the first time starters. The two most intriguing options among them are Mo Savings, a full-sister to stakes winner Clipthecouponannie, and Behind the Couch, a daughter of Awesome Again who sold for $100,000 as a yearling. Arch’s Smile is also mildly interesting given her stellar pedigree but she may ultimately want more ground.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,5,7,8
RACE 7: ALMITHMAAR (#6)
I suppose J S Bach will be a deserving favorite off a pair of solid third-place finishes at this level. While he’s achieved the majority of his success against cheaper company, he has improved his speed figures in recent months and was facing tougher fields in his last two starts. The cutback to seven furlongs may actually help him given how well he ran going sprint distances at Saratoga last summer. Everything Jason Servis sends out has been dangerous lately, and this gelding figures to work out a good trip from stalking range. The Pace Projector is predicting that Bon Raison will lead the field early in a situation favoring the front-runner. However, I think this horse is one to take a stand against. He earned the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field in winning his last race just seven days ago, but he benefitted from riding the golden rail that day. I highly doubt he can repeat such a performance on a fair surface. My top selection is Almithmaar, who may sit the perfect trip just in behind the aforementioned speeds, assuming Bon Raison can’t seal the deal. Almithmaar’srecent form is a lot better than it might appear at first glance. This horse contested a strong pace against superior rivals on Sept. 29 and then was wide against a strong rail bias on Oct. 26. I can excuse his turf effort two back, and last time, he had to contend with a sloppy track. I thought he would have finished closer that day had Dylan Davis continued to send him through inside in upper stretch, as he seemed to lose momentum when he altered course. Nevertheless, he still finished relatively close to the talented Eye Luv Lulu and defeated next-out winner Preservationist. His 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up well against these, and he still has room to improve.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,2,3
RACE 8: FORGOTTEN HERO (#4)
Three main contenders figure to attract the bulk of the support in this Franklin Square, and I strongly prefer one of them. Whether you’re looking at class lines or pace figures, Forgotten Hero is simply the horse they all have to catch and the one to beat. In my opinion, she deserves to be the clear favorite and is the most likely winner. I was impressed by this filly’s debut, when she rocketed to the lead out of the gate and never looked back. If anything, she improved in her second start, when she came through inside of Sassy Agnes to set a very fast pace before holding that heavily favored foe at bay through the lane. While her Beyer Speed Figure doesn’t stand out, her pace-adjusted TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort was an eye-popping 112. No one else in this field has come close to that kind of number. Forgotten Hero has had some brief time off since that hard effort, but she’s worked well since, and I think she can pick up right where she left off. I’m wary of her main rivals, Stonesintheroad and Flush. The former rode a golden rail to victory last time out and is just not fast enough to challenge Forgotten Hero for the lead if both are sent. The Pace Projector shows Forgotten Hero clearly in front in the early stages. Flush was visually impressive when winning her maiden, but I have serious doubts about the quality of that race and the legitimacy of the speed figures it received. When playing exotics, I would actually prefer to get Maiden Beauty into the mix for second or third behind my top selection. This filly has a good closing kick in a race that should feature some pace and I actually like the turnback in distance for her, even though her most recent sprint effort was disappointing.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,6 with 1,2,3,6