by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 7 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 6: 2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 9 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 8 - 2 - 10
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 5 - 1
RACE 2: AREWEHAVINGFUNYET (#5)
If Milaya can repeat the performance she put forth two back, she is very likely to beat this field. However, her second start off the claim for Ray Handal was pretty disappointing. She moved up in class, but that was not a very strong field, and she failed to impress while finishing last of four. She can certainly win, but I’d rather bet Arewehavingfunyet at a better price. This filly is also coming off an unsatisfactory performance, as she retreated in the early going while facing $20,000 foes. Her form since getting claimed away from Michelle Nevin has not been quite as strong, but I think she may be able to turn things around here. Last time, she was making her first start in nearly two months, and doing so over a sloppy, sealed track that she may not have relished. Now, she’s returning in just eight days, which suggests that she may have needed that most recent start to add fitness. Furthermore, Greg DiPrima, who does not have very strong numbers first off the claim, has a remarkable record second off the claim. Over the past five years, he is 9 for 40 (23 percent, $4.63 ROI) in that situation. This filly possesses early speed, which should come in handy in a race that is not expected to feature a strong pace.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6
RACE 3: TRINNI NINJA (#3)
The key players in this event are exiting the third race on Jan. 19, won by She’s Delightful. That day, Beautiful Buzz dueled for the early lead with Pauseforthecause before impeding that foe at the eighth pole when both were tiring. Beautiful Buzz was disqualified and placed fourth for that interference. This time, they may both find themselves chasing the very quick Velvet Trinni, who breaks from the inside under Paco Lopez. That could set things up for My Roxy Girl, who was fifth behind the two favorites on Jan. 19 but returned to win a softer starter-allowance race last time. However, if I’m going to select a closer in this race, the one I want to bet is the maiden Trinni Ninja. This filly has run better than it appears in both of her starts. While she was riding a good rail in her debut, she did not have an easy trip. She broke a bit awkwardly and had to rush up through traffic during the middle portion of the race. Last time, she stretched out to a mile and again had to compensate for a slow break. All things considered, she did well to hang on for fourth while going a distance that may be too far for her. I like this turnback to six furlongs, and the rider switch to Victor Lebron is definitely a positive.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6
RACE 6: CANDY PROMISES (#2)
This is one of the more interesting races on the card. Ray Handal has gotten the best out of Pirellone in his two starts since claiming him last fall. He ran the best last-out speed figure in the field when winning against $10,000 foes and now steps up in class to face a significantly tougher group. He’s the horse to beat, but there are other viable options at better prices. Alaapatique must be considered as he drops in class out of starter-allowance races. Dennis Lalman has improved this runner significantly since claiming him for just $5,000, so it’s not as big of a negative as it might seem that he’s now dropping him down to the $16,000 level. If he repeats any of his recent races, he figures to be right there at the finish. I’ll use him, but the horse who really intrigues me at an even bigger price is Candy Promises. I know that his two starts in New York have not been fast enough to compete against these, but I think this runner can improve today. His last race is better than it seems. Of the 11 horses in that race, five have returned to win their next starts, all improving their speed figures. Candy Promises did not have an ideal trip that day, as he was outrun early and forced extremely wide around the far turn. He’s handled a mile in the past, and he figures to be fitter in his second start off the layoff.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 7: OUT OF ORBIT (#5)
This seems like the kind of race that could produce an odd result. The favorites are just not reliable, primarily due to the fact that most of them are first-time starters. I suppose Gabriella will be favored for the Todd Pletcher barn, but we have no idea if this horse can run at all. She’s a homebred, and Pletcher has not had great success with his New York-bred firsters at Aqueduct. Walk of Fame has some pedigree in the second generation of her female family and she has seemingly been working well for the Carlos Martin barn. I’ll use both of them, but neither option thrills me. Of those with experience, Queen Apollo is likely to attract the most support, but she’s not the kind of horse I want to bet. In each of her two races, she has come to a complete stop at the eighth pole, so it’s hard to envision her sealing the deal this time. I want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with second-time-starter Out of Orbit. She finished last as the lesser half of the favored entry last time out, but she did not run nearly as poorly as it seems. She actually launched a move coming around the far turn, but lost momentum when carried out into the 5-path coming into the stretch. That was a race dominated by horses that stayed near the rail and she was well out in the middle of the track during the last half of the race. Since then, she’s recorded an improved workout, so I’m hopeful she can wake up in her second start.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,9
RACE 8: ULTIMATEENTICEMENT (#3)
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which seems very likely with Flash Drive in the race. This horse has shown a great deal of early speed in his recent races, and jockey Paco Lopez knows how to use it. His last performance was somewhat disappointing as the favorite, but he had to chase two wide while dueling with Nine Route, who may just be a better horse. Analyze the Odds could go off as the slight favorite as he drops out of tougher stakes races. He figures to benefit most from a duel on the front end since he is a confirmed closer who drops well out of his races in the early going. I’ll use him, but I want to bet Ultimateenticement at a more attractive price. This Rick Violette trainee hasn’t been seen since finishing a distant fourth behind Battle Station in the Bertram F. Bongard back in September. Something seems to have gone amiss that day, but now he returns in an easier spot and could sit a good stalking trip. He actually ran some competitive speed figures at Saratoga last summer and has a right to have improved with maturity since then.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,8,10