by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 8 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 9 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 6 - 8 - 9 - 3
(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)
RACE 2: UNO (#5)
I don’t have any major knocks against the current form of likely favorite My Man Matty (#4). He’s caught a pretty soft field for this level, so an odds-on price would appear to be justified. However, the one potential vulnerability for him is the presence of other speed in this field. He’s a headstrong horse who has shown a preference for racing on the lead. Yet a horse like Lohengrin Two (#7) could pose a real problem, as that rival will be intent on getting to the front, and is rarely beaten to the first call. I much prefer the form of My Man Matty to that of Lohengrin Two, since the latter rode an inside bias when he won against $10k claimers in his last start. This is a significant jump in class and I’m skeptical that he can be as effective in a tougher spot. I’m hoping an early pace duel sets things up for Uno (#5), who should be stalking just off the speeds. His best speed figures have come at Finger Lakes, but I thought this horse ran deceptively well when he was fourth at this level on January 8. He proved that he’s capable of getting sprint distances, as he finished less than a length out of second place, just behind next-out winner Writer’s Regret, who returned to achieve a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I don’t want to be too hard on Uno for his poor result next time, since he got engaged in an early duel with winner Overstep, who is a superior animal. He’s now getting class relief despite staying at the same level, and also receives a rider upgrade to Jason Huayas.
WIN: #5 Uno, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 3: STARQUIST (#3)
Maker’s Candy (#4) didn’t run a particularly eye-catching race on debut, especially given the foggy conditions. Yet the word was out that he would deliver a much improved effort in his second start, as he was somewhat surprisingly bet down to favoritism for the stretch-out. He ran to that support and then some, as he traveled boldly into the race and drew away with authority when asked. That 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure towers over this field and the fig looks legitimate based on the merits of those behind him. The one drawback is that Mike Maker is just 5 for 40 (13%, $1.04 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt routes over 5 years. Main rival Neural Network (#5) like he could be any kind coming out of that impressive debut victory in November. He rated kindly off a moderate pace and displayed a nice kick when asked for his best in the lane. Yet he wasn’t quite up to the challenge when he tackled the Jerome against open company last time. Brown now regroups, dropping him in against New York-breds, but this is a pretty solid field. D’ont Lose Cruz (#2) has run well in all of his starts, never finishing out of the exacta. Yet I have some concerns about him stretching out in distance. I actually prefer Starquist (#3), who exits the same races. He simply ran out of ground two back when making his late rally in the Notebook. Then last time he had to make a wide run into the stretch whereas the winner saved all the ground. This colt was also hanging on his left lead through the lane, which seemed to mute his kick. He didn’t finish in his only prior attempt at a mile, but that was just his second start. He gives the physical impression that more distance should benefit him, he’s by 19% dirt route sire Nyquist, and his dam was a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. He also gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis for this.
WIN: #3 Starquist, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 4: ROYAL TRYST (#5)
Lastchanceatglory (#6) has been popular at the claim box, changing hands after his last 7 consecutive starts. He’s found a home for himself at this $40k claiming level, as he’s been offered for this price tag in each of his last three starts. He put in a performance two back that would make him awfully tough for this field to beat, earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure going this distance. Yet he was in the Rob Atras barn at the time. He subsequently didn’t run quite as well for Linda Rice, and now he’s been claimed by Dominick Schettino, who is just 5 for 34 (15%, $1.07 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. The problem is that a couple of his main rivals are moving up in class. Prince of Pharoahs (#3) is making a more subtle jump, though he was beating a weaker field when he won here just two weeks ago. He also was 9-1 that day, and he figures to be a much shorter price now. Hammerin Aamer (#7) also put in a big effort to win last time, but that was in a $16k claiming race, and he’s generally been running in cheaper spots for the past year. I prefer a runner who is dropping in class. Royal Tryst (#5) doesn’t hit the board that often, but he can surprise with a win at a generous price when he’s placed appropriately. He’s simply been in over his head in recent starts at the N1X allowance level. He has earned some decent speed figures for those performances, completing the superfecta on a couple of occasions, but he’s not as good as those horses. Now he’s dropping into a realistic spot for a barn that tends to fly under the radar, so the price should be fair.
WIN: #5 Royal Tryst, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7: CAPTAINSDAUGHTER (#9)
There appears to be plenty of pace signed on in this N1X allowance, which could complicate the task of likely favorite Kant Hurry Love (#5). She’s shown contesting the lead on the Pace Projector along with about 5 other horses in a fast pace scenario. That will be a different type of trip than she’s enjoyed in her last couple of victories, where she’s been able to either control on the front end or share slow paces. She obviously has the talent to win here, but I don’t think she offers any value. I’m a little more interested in the horse I pegged as the second-choice on the morning line. Kitten’s Appeal (#7) exits a race on Jan. 29 along with several other horses in this field. She lost by a neck but may have run the best race of anyone. She didn’t break that well and had to rush up into a stalking position on the backstretch. She then advanced to make an early bid for the lead and never stopped fighting through the lane. A repeat of that performance will certainly put her in the mix here, but she’s another who could get caught up in a quick pace. I prefer the third-place finisher from that Jan. 29 affair. Captainsdaughter (#9) may have been ridden a bit too conservatively, as Eric Cancel was seemingly waiting for that race to fall apart. However, the speed didn’t develop as much as expected on the front end, and he ended up leaving this filly with too much to do. She still put in a solid rally for third, but I think she’s landed in an even more favorable scenario this time. She may not be the most naturally talented horse in this field, but she possesses a reliable late run when she’s ridden properly. The extra half-furlong of this race should also work to her advantage.
WIN: #9 Captainsdaughter, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 7
RACE 8: FAR MO POWER (#2)
In the handicapping puzzle that is the Stymie, the most difficult puzzle piece to fit into the larger picture is that of Repo Rocks (#3). He is the key to this race, as the chances of all the other competitors depend on which version of this horse shows up. If Repo Rocks repeats the 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for his victory in the Toboggan Stakes, there isn’t a horse in this field that will be able to defeat him. Yet he had never reached that level before and even his prior starts for Jamie Ness at Parx don’t nearly rise to the lofty heights that he achieved last time. He’s obviously a horse that has run well at Aqueduct before. However, he has never been successful beyond 7 furlongs, and the distance of this race is a major factor, as others are proven going this far. I’m certainly afraid of anything the Jamie Ness barn sends out, as his horses will improve suddenly and maintain that form for several starts. Perhaps Repo Rocks in the midst of one of those peaks. However, he’s now going to be a very short price, whereas last time he was 10-1, and I’m just not comfortable endorsing a favorite that still has significant questions to answer. I also have reservations about Miles D (#6), who could be the second choice in this race. There was a time when this Chad Brown trainee would have been pretty formidable against this field. However, he managed just one start during his 4-year-old season, and returned from a one-year layoff last time at Gulfstream with a disappointing effort. I never thought that was the right spot for him, as he drew the rail going a distance that seems too short for him. Yet now he’s back in a one-mile race, perhaps because there are no other options for him. Bourbonic (#1) is more interesting to me at a similar price, since he’s at least in great form right now. He ran pretty well to win that optional claimer 20 days ago, as he closed into a moderate pace and beat a horse who has been on a roll this winter. I’m using him, but my top pick is another Parx shipper. Far Mo Power (#2) will be making his first start outside of his Pennsylvania home base, but I think he stacks up pretty well against the competition. This horse was a surprise winner – though ultimately disqualified – in the Parx Dirt Mile last year, finishing in a photo with the classy Mind Control. While that 12-1 upset might seem like an outlier, he had run extremely well after getting a poor trip in his prior start. He then got another nightmare journey two back when he got badly fouled in traffic heading into the clubhouse turn. He got back on track last time with a nice confidence builder, earning a strong 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I think he’s going to be perfectly suited to this one-turn mile at Aqueduct, and the price should be more than fair.
WIN: #2 Far Mo Power, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 1
RACE 9: BOLD HONOR (#6)
Old Point (#5) figures to vie for favoritism as he makes his first start for the Rob Atras barn. This former Pletcher trainee obviously faced much better fields in his first couple of starts at the maiden special weight level. However, this colt wasn’t particularly competitive in either of those races. One would have expected improvement on the class drop to this level last time, but that didn’t happen either, as he actually regressed over a wet track. Now returns as a new gelding for Rob Atras, who has great stats first off the claim. However, Atras is just 2 for 13 (15%, $1.42 ROI) first off the claim with maidens on dirt over 5 years. I actually much prefer Atras’s other runner. Bold Honor (#6) is a first time starter who has taken a while to get to the races. He brought just $3,500 as a yearling and then sold for $32k as a 2YO after working a furlong in 10 2/5. He has some pedigree, being by Honor Code out of a dam who was proficient on turf and synthetic. This gelding had been training well in 2021 and was actually entered to debut in a 2-year-old maiden special weight on Cigar Mile Day that year before getting scratched. He didn’t make it back to the worktab for a long time, and now he’s in for the $20k tag, so there are some red flags. Yet Atras is underrated with young horses, 6 for 36 (17%, $3.19 ROI) with first time starters on dirt over 5 years. I want to give him a shot because I’m just not thrilled with the more experienced options. Looking beyond him, the only horse that really interest me are two runners making their second starts off the layoff. My Boy Colton (#8) has had his chances, but he certainly has a right to improve in his first start for Jamie Ness, going out for the same connections as Repo Rocks. Downtown Connector (#9) is another who is second off the layoff, and he put in some decent efforts as a younger horse at Fair Grounds.
WIN: #6 Bold Honor, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 8,9