by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 6 - 1A - 2
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 9 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 7 - 9
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 12 - 8 - 3 - 9
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 12 - 3
RACE 5: FORGOTTEN MISSION (#5)
There are many questions to be answered among those with experience in this race, starting with the two likely favorites. One Whirlwind Ride would be pretty difficult for this crew to beat if able to repeat the 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned last time when just missing at this level. While it might seem like that race came out of nowhere, do note that he was on his way to victory two back when he veered in greenly and lost his rider in the stretch. He was obviously a good claim for these connections, but he’ll be a much shorter price this time. Big Brown Shoes was the beaten favorite in that Jan. 21 race that One Whirlwind Ride also exits. This Charlton Baker trainee didn’t appear to have much of an excuse that day, as he faded after battling with today’s foe. He did run much better on a muddy track in his debut, and the surface figures to be wet on Saturday, so perhaps he can bounce back. Though, I am starting to wonder if that Nov. 12 maiden event wasn’t as strong as it initially seemed. I’m going in a different direction with the remaining horse out of that Jan. 21 affair, Forgotten Mission. His running line looks uninspiring, but he had a more eventful trip than it seems. He was off just a step slowly, tried to rush up on the backstretch, but found himself behind a wall of horses, racing greenly while reacting badly to kickback. He didn’t make much headway in the stretch, but he nevertheless stayed on well in a race where the top two finishers got some separation from the rest. I think this full-brother to solid allowance filly Forgotten Hero will run better in his second start. I would also consider some firsters, depending on tote action. One particularly intriguing runner is Olympique, who is a half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Aunt Babe.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6,8
RACE 7: SCHOKOLADE (#1)
The horse to beat is clearly the one horse with experience. Our Man Mike was thrown directly into stakes company at Finger Lakes following a decent Saratoga debut, and he acquitted himself well, picking up a pair of second-place finishes. He did get somewhat lucky to be second last time as the third-place finisher blew the start and might have won with a clean break. That said, he’s earned speed figures that make him the horse to beat. The only concern is the layoff in a race where a few firsters look like they could be live. The debut runner who looks most dangerous at first glance is Dr. Ardito. This $95k yearling purchase is by 9% debut sire Liam’s Map. The dam earned both of her victories in dirt sprints, and the only sibling to race is Navistar, best known for a runner-up finish to subsequent graded stakes winner Tenfold in a 3-year-old allowance. Chad Brown is 15-for-66 (23%, $1.57 ROI) with first time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over the past 5 years, suggesting that these horses get slightly overbet. He was working down at Palm Meadows into January before shipping to New York. That Feb. 13 drill was in company with older allowance type Golani Brigade, which is probably a good sign for this barn. I’m using him, but I prefer another Florida shipper. Schokolade is a $100k yearling purchase by 18% debut sire Bayern. The dam (30-6-5-7, $230k, 96 Beyer) was a stakes-winning sprinter who won on both dirt and turf. She’s produced a couple of stakes-placed runners, topped by Victory Is Sweet, runner-up in the 6F Chick Lang who also earned a 100 Beyer in his maiden win. Bill Mott is 12 for 50 (24%, $3.77 ROI) with 3-year-old and older first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. Some of the workouts down at Payson Park look solid.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7
RACE 8: VICAR’S LEGEND (#12)
For the first time in 3 years of making the morning lines at NYRA, I had to go up to 5-1 for a morning line favorite in this race – and I still have no idea how the public is going to bet this baffling 13-horse war. I guessed that Direct Order could be the slight favorite as he drops firs off the claim for Rob Atras. While he’s focused on one-mile races recently, he’s been proficient over 7 furlongs in the past. He’s simply been facing significantly better company in most of his recent starts. Furthermore, he loves a wet track and there’s rain in the forecast. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t want to settle for a relatively short price in a race as competitive as this. Win With Pride could also attract support, as he’s one of the few runners in this race exiting a victory. He’s back at the same $8k level at which he won last time, but this is certainly a tougher spot. If his form is heading in the right direction again, he’ll be a player here. Yet he’s hard to trust given all the poor efforts leading up to that last victory. I want to get a little more creative. My top pick is Vicar’s Legend. This horse obviously needs some help with the pace up front if he’s to be successful, and there isn’t much apparent speed in this field. Yet in a field this large, someone is bound to get aggressive. Vicar’s Legend has primarily been facing tougher company since he was claimed by Ray Handal in November. He was just overmatched against superior $25k claimers two and three back. He got into a more realistic spot last time, but he had the misfortune of catching a heavily biased track. The rail was a significant advantage, and he was forced to rally outside in the stretch. We already saw another wide trip runner from that race, Seethisquick, return to win, so I’m confident that Vicar’s Legend will have more to offer on a fair surface.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,5,8,9,10,11