by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   4 - 1A - 2 - 6
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 7:   1 - 9 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   8 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 9:   3 - 2 - 4 - 7

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: HERSH (#2)
Shamrocked would be a deserving favorite here as he makes his third start since returning from a layoff. While he could only manage to finish third in his last two starts at this level, he actually ran reasonably well in both of those races. He was setting an honest pace two back before getting run over by the juggernaut that is Wicked Trick. Then last time he found himself chasing outside over a racetrack that appeared to be slightly tilted towards inside paths. Now he’s drawn outside of his main pace rivals and he should work out a decent trip against a slightly weaker field. The one concern I have with him is the 6 1/2 furlongs. He has won going this distance, but he’s always getting leg-weary in the final sixteenth and that could leave him vulnerable to a closer. The best of those is clearly Hersh, who now cuts back in distance after trying a mile in his return from the layoff. Hersh got knocked off stride at the start last time, which put him a bit farther back in the early going than he otherwise might have been. Furthermore, that was a fairly moderate pace and winner Frank’sgunisloaded was heavily supported like he was meant to win that day. I’ve always thought that Hersh is better going shorter distances, and he figures to get a more honest setup this time with the fleet Ready to Escape in the mix. If he can build at all upon that last effort second off the layoff I think he’ll be the biggest threat to Shamrocked. I’m focusing primarily on these two, since I’m not a fan of Blacktop Legend, who has been beating significantly weaker horses.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,4,5
 

RACE 6: THE LAST ACE (#4)
Scuttlebuzz was dismissed at 35-1 first time out in what was a large, competitive field. He broke with the rest but couldn’t secure running room in the opening furlong and got shuffled back to 11th, reacting badly to kickback as he strode greenly down the backside. Most firsters in that situation would have quit early on, but this horse commenced a rally on the far turn and absolutely exploded with late speed in the stretch. The early pace was indeed quick, but no one else was closing with this guy’s determination. He has a right to improve, but Jonathan Thomas is 7 for 31 (23%, $1.09 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt, indicating that these types are often overbet. I think he’s the most likely winner, but there are some intriguing alternatives making their career debuts in this spot. One of those is Mr. Buckley. City Zip is an excellent sire of youngsters, getting fast horses on all surfaces. The dam won her dirt sprint debut, her only victory in 4 starts, and has been an excellent producer, throwing stakes-winning dirt sprinters Eye Luv Lulu ($911,000) and this colt’s full-sister Tricky Zippy ($332,000). Ray Handal does an excellent job overall, but it must be noted that his barn is 0 for 42 with first time starters. That said, most of those didn’t have pedigrees like this or come into their debuts showing a best-of-136 bullet workout. I’ll use him, but I slightly prefer The Last Ace, a homebred by Honor Code. The dam Acey Deucey was a star for these connections, winning the Grade 1 Prioress and Grade 2 Comely as a 3-year-old. While she hasn’t reproduced herself, she’s thrown some decent runners, including Mike Lee winner Preachintothedevil and solid dirt sprinter Caspian Crown. John Morrison is 0 for 16 with firsters over 5 years, but he knows how to handle a good horse, and this one may have ability. Note that blistering bullet workout from the gate on Feb. 2, which was a few ticks faster than the second and third best works of the day, turned in by accomplished older horses Fuel the Bern and Honor Up.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,8
 

RACE 7: BEACH ACCESS (#1)
The two horses likely to attract the bulk of support both come into this race with significant flaws. Freaky Styley has more upside than the rest in just his fifth career start, but I think you have to be a little concerned about his current form. He ran exceptionally well in his first two starts at Saratoga last summer, but his last two efforts have been underwhelming. He had some traffic issues two back, but he still was supposed to win that race. Then last time he got an unexpected challenge from a longshot and had to work surprisingly hard to secure the victory. That last-out regression also makes me concerned about this ability excel at this one-mile distance. Yankee Division might seem like the obvious alternative, but I don’t fully trust him to repeat his last race. That one-mile claimer did come up unusually fast compared to other races that day but it was run just as a snowstorm was beginning and the track may have been changing a great deal. Runner-up Invest returned to run significantly slower despite getting claimed by Jason Servis, which further calls that speed figure into question. I want to look elsewhere, and the best option appears to be Beach Access. There appears to be some pace in this race, since Captain Frost, High Command, and Yankee Division are all likely to vie for the front end. While I don’t think the pace is going to totally fall apart, that should ensure that Beach Access works out a fair trip. He did well to be second behind the improved Playwright last time after having to alter course in deep stretch. A repeat of that 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him right in the mix and it’s not like that was the first time that he’s run well over this course and distance.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,7,9
 

RACE 8: BLUGRASCAT’S SMILE (#8)
This is a very confusing race going an unusual distance. I suppose Leitone may go favored, but I’m concerned about the stretch-out. He’s handled 1 1/8 miles, but this is 1 1/2 furlongs farther than that and he’s not the kind of horse that is ever finishing with great energy. Furthermore, while the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead, he may face some early pressure from horses like Ekhtibaar and Armament. I’m using him prominently given his overall superior form, but I want to look for better value on the win end. Adventist makes plenty of sense after running right by Leitone in the late stages of the Jazil. He was just picking up pieces late in a race that was falling apart, but at least you know that he’s going to get the distance given that he won the G3 Greenwood Cup going 1 1/2 miles. I’ll use him, but I think we can get a bit more creative with the top selection. Blugrascat’s Smile is a horse who I have always wanted to see stretched out in distance, since he’s this imposing, long-striding type who often runs out of ground going shorter. He’s tried stakes company in the past to no avail, but this feels like a weird situation in which many of the top contenders could run below their best form. Blugrascat’s Smile’s recent efforts have been solid and he put forth one of his best performances to win going a mile last time, bulling his way through traffic late. Some will be deterred by the fact that he’s claimed away from Rob Atras, but Gary Sciacca is actually 10 for 55 (18%, $4.08 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over 5 years, suggesting that his recent claims are often overlays. It also doesn’t hurt that he picks up Eric Cancel, who has been winning races in bunches lately.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,6,7,9
Trifecta: 6,7 with 3,6,7,9 with 8
 

RACE 9: SAN JUAN DIEGO (#3)
Blue Belt is probably the horse to beat given his consistent form at this level, but he’s still Blue Belt. He’s just not a horse who has a knack for finding the winner’s circle, having not won a race since August 2018. I’ll use him in all of my exotics wagers, but I think we can find better value elsewhere. Big Thicket is a viable option as he gets some needed class relief dropping out of tougher allowance spots. I don’t have much confidence that he can get back t the form that carried him to victory on Dec. 28 for Randi Persaud, but I also think he has more to offer than we saw out of him going a mile in his last two starts. The turnback should benefit him, and James Ferraro’s horses have been running deceptively well in recent weeks. I’ll use both of these prominently, but my top pick is San Juan Diego. He’s another who should appreciate turning back in distance, since a mile has always been a little far for him. That said, he’s nevertheless surpassed expectations in both of his starts for this barn. He was facing a strong field for this level last time and he was in the mix until the very late stages before fading. There’s a reasonable argument that he’s improved since the claim and he might be capable of producing his best effort yet now that he’s cutting back to 6 furlongs and catching a softer crew. It was only about a year ago that he was earning speed figures that would put him in the winner’s circle at this level and it’s possible that he’s rounding back into that form.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,7