by David Aragona
The feature on Saturday’s card at Aqueduct is the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers Stakes, which will be run at 1 1/8 miles this year. The extended distance of this race provides an early season opportunity to test the stamina of some key Kentucky Derby prospects as they seek to accumulate qualifying points for the first Saturday in May. Of the main contenders, two have already negotiated this demanding distance successfully – Avery Island and Marconi – whereas co-favorite Firenze Fire will be attempting to stretch out off a series of strong performances around one turn.
Read my full horse-by-horse TimeformUS analysis of the Withers in the Daily Racing Form.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 3 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 9 - 8 - 6 - 10
RACE 1: STREUVES STAR (#6)
If Arbitrator runs back to his prior two efforts as he again switches barns off the claim, he is going to win this race. He has run faster than his rivals while facing marginally tougher fields than this one. On the other hand, you’re forced to take a very short price on a horse moving into the stable of David Donk, who is 0 for 14 first off the claim over a five-year period, with just four runners in that sample even hitting the board. That’s not the kind of favorite I want to bet. The problem with this race is that the logical alternatives also have major flaws. I have no confidence that War Eagle’s Return wants to go a mile, and American Road is far more content to finish second than first. So, that leads me to my top selection, Streuves Star. Obviously, this horse has some questions to answer, but there are some things to like. Finger Lakes form can be difficult to trust, but he’s earned many competitive speed figures over that strip and has done so against talented runners like Breakin the Fever, Testosterstone, and Fox Rules. The problem is that all of those races came back in 2016, and he hasn’t put forth one of those efforts in more than a year. That said, his lone route race last year at Delaware actually wasn’t a terrible effort, and something probably happened next time out at Monmouth to necessitate this layoff. Now he returns for Rachel Sells, who has actually had some modest success at this meet, and he’s going to be a big enough price for me to take a shot.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4
RACE 2: WUSHU WARRIOR (#5)
Surprise Wonder is not the kind of horse I would typically bet at a short price, but I do think you need to respect him. Todd Pletcher has fantastic numbers with horses dropping from maiden special weight to dirt maiden-claiming races off long layoffs like this (7 for 10 over the past five years). This horse ran fast enough in his early-season 2-year-old races to suggest that he only needs to improve slightly to beat this field. I’m against his main rival, Theresa’s Boy, who beat a woeful field in his return from the layoff last time. Therefore, I’m left with Wushu Warrior. This colt was facing a significantly tougher field when he made his debut against maiden special weight company. He was a little green and racing about one path off the rail throughout on a day when the rail seemed to get very strong midway through the card. Now he returns on short rest and gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6
RACE 4: THREE TO THIRTEEN (#4)
The speedy duo of Northern and Shoe Loves Shoe will vie for favoritism in this spot, as the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors the early leaders. Both merit respect as they drop in class, but recent layoffs leave me somewhat concerned about their recent form. My top selection is Three to Thirteen. This horse is not that much slower than the favorites, so I expect him to be stalking from close range under Martin Garcia. In his return to the races last time, he showed good early speed before fading. That was his first start in 10 months, and he really doesn’t need to improve that much on the 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned that day in order to compete against this group. It’s also worth noting that the majority of his prior races fell during his 2-year-old season, and some of those races were actually quite encouraging. He ran very well when winning his maiden over the talented Carradine at Belmont. After that, he finished a good third behind two decent runners, Always and Suspect and Caledonian, in November 2016 before getting compromised by a wide trip against a golden rail on Dec. 17. I believe this gelding possesses more ability than he’s shown, and the price will be generous. I’ll use him with the two favorites as well as the recent Rudy Rodriguez claim Lucky Town.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6,7,8
RACE 7: FINAL CHAPTER (#3)
This is one of the most difficult races on the card, as it really complicates the late pick four. Foreset may go off as the favorite as he makes his first start off the claim by the always-dangerous Rudy Rodriguez barn. It’s not as if he even needs to improve much off this barn change since his recent form is solid. The biggest obstacle that he’s likely to face is the speedy Jewel Can Disco, who is drawn to his inside. This 4-year-old is very fast and is likely to outrun Foreset to the early lead. Returning from a layoff last time, Jewel Can Disco put in a strong effort as he blasted off to the front and held on for third in a race that collapsed late. I’ll use both of these runners, but I’m interested in another runner at a better price. My selection is Final Chapter, who takes a needed drop in class. This horse can be a little unreliable, but he’s capable of running a race that can bury this field when he’s in form. I’m going to take it as a positive sign that Charlton Baker placed him in such an ambitious spot off the layoff last time so that he could protect him from getting claimed. Now he drops to a more realistic class level, and he’s worked well in the interim. He’s done best as a closing sprinter during the past year, and he should get an honest pace to close into here.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,8
RACE 8: AVERY ISLAND (#4)
It’s hard to fault the impressive son of Street Sense. After disappointing his supporters when surprisingly bet down to favoritism in his career debut at Saratoga last summer, he’s been a completely different horse since stretching out in distance. It’s true that Avery Island was able to take advantage of moderate paces over speed-favoring tracks in his maiden win and in the Nashua. However, he showed a new dimension last time out in the Remsen, rating off the pace before finishing well to be second behind impressive winner Catholic Boy. That Remsen was a valuable learning experience for this colt. He at first appeared to be somewhat uncomfortable racing behind rivals when Joe Bravo initially reined him in to let the leaders go by early. However, as the race continued, he settled down and waited for Bravo’s cues. Obviously, no one was beating Catholic Boy that day, but I thought Avery Island did well to finish up as strongly as he did considering that he was stretching out to two turns for this first time. He’s been working steadily at Palm Meadows down in Florida and appears to be prepared to conquer this early season goal. With only one other speed to deal with – and a longshot at that – he figures to sit a perfect stalking trip. I’m not trying to beat him, but I will use Marconi as the primary backup in exotics and multi-race wagers.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 2,4
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5