PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   8 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   1/1A - 6 - 5 - 2B
Race 4:   5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 2 - 6 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 2: VICTORY BUILT (#8)
The horse to beat is probably Number One Dillon, who makes his second start off the claim for Rob Atras after finishing second at this level last time. While that effort did represent an improvement on his prior form, he was bet to favoritism that day and still couldn’t quite get the job done against a pretty weak field for this level. He’s entered for the same condition today, but he’s facing some stronger rivals this time, so he may have to improve again to beat this field. I’m certainly using him, but he’s not one that I’d recommend betting as the favorite. Main rival Cohiba Ghost returns for his second career dirt start after finishing second on this surface at this level in December. While he earned a speed figure that makes him a contender here, he got a fast pace to close into in that spot, and horses have not come back out of that race to run well. I’d downgrade his performance slightly, and that makes him a poor bet at a relatively short price. I want to go in a different direction with Victory Built. This horse’s form may be tailing off slightly, but I think he’s had excuses in his last two starts. Not only was he facing tougher fields in each of those races, but he found himself in the unenviable position of having to chase Montauk Daddy two back. And last time he lost all chance when we got away from the gate very slowly. I think he’ll work out a better trip from this outside draw, and he should appreciate the slight drop in class.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 2,3,4

RACE 5: BETA (#1)
The other division of today’s second race has drawn a pretty wide open field with no clear standouts. The public figures to gravitate towards a couple of class droppers, but neither one is particularly trustworthy. The potential favorite could be Him She Kisses, who finished last in his return last month. Yet, despite that lackluster result, he nevertheless earned a speed figure that makes him a contender here. He’s also getting significant class relief for this race, and he has prior form that would make him tough. Bulwark is also dropping after checking in fourth at the tougher $25k level last time. He was unable to make the lead that day, and that’s always going to be a problem for this speedy horse. While he may wake up on the class drop, he does find himself in yet another race that features plenty of early speed. I want a horse that can come from slightly off the pace, and the option that intrigues me the most is Beta. This horse looks a little slow at first glance, but I think his recent form is better than it appears. He did not get the most comfortable trip two back at a tougher level when jammed in between horses on the turn before fading. Then last time he dropped to this level and made a bold middle move into a fast pace, hanging on until the late stages before tiring. A repeat of that performance puts him in the mix, and he may appreciate turning back to 6 furlongs. Notably, he also gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,8

RACE 6: KIKKERLAND (#1)
This is a pretty tricky race to analyze given the number of first time starters involved and some conflicting evidence about those with experience. Among those making their debuts, there are a few with solid pedigrees and Mr. Fantasy sports some quick workouts. Yet I’ve landed on horses with experience. The likely favorite is What’s My Category, who would be pretty tough to beat if repeating the 71 Beyer that he was assigned last time. However, the TimeformUS Speed Figure for the race is just a 73 – a sizable difference. I’m honestly not sure how fast the race should be, since the track appeared to be changing throughout the day on Jan. 15, and the top two may have been helped by a speed bias. Regardless of how fast What’s My Category ran last time, he’s not a horse that I want to take at a short price. He’s had his chances at this level and just fails to get the job done even when things go his way. His main rival is Devious Mo, who obviously wanted no part of a mile last time. That said, he did improve significantly off the claim by Rudy Rodiguez and could be tough here if able to run as well on the turnback in distance. I’m not enamored with him, but I do expect him to improve on his last outing. My top pick is Kikkerland. This horse was making his debut in the same race What’s My Category exits. He broke behind the field and attempted to rush up on the backstretch, passing about half the field before making further progress on the far turn. He ultimately flattened out in the stretch, but he had a right to lose momentum over a track that appeared to be helping front-runners. He took some money that day, and I expect him to put forth a better effort second time out for Rob Atras.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,6 with 2,3,5,6

RACE 7: ELLARELLA (#3)
Mabel Island is the horse to beat as she makes her first start against New York-breds after winning 4 open company races at Parx. She’s the stablemate of Mr. Doda, who runs in the Withers, which is probably the reason that she’s made the trip north. This 4-year-old filly has really improved in recent starts, earning the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figures in this field while winning 3 of her last 5 in impressive fashion. The problem is that all of those recent victories were earned in two-turn races where she was able to control the pace. It’s unclear if she’ll be as effective turning back to 7 furlongs, and she also has to prove that she can bring her Parx form to a new circuit. A few of her rivals are stepping up in class but I prefer a horse with prior experience at this level. Ellarella comes off a performance that’s better than the speed figure indicates. She took over that Dec. 31 affair at the top of the stretch and took a clear lead into the final furlong before just getting leg-weary in the closing strides. It’s not the first time that she’s found a mile to be a little far for her, so I love this slight turnback in distance to 7 furlongs. Furthermore, she ran better than it appears sprinting two back, when she sustained a wide trip around the far turn on a day when speed seemed to have an advantage. She hasn’t always been the most reliable sort but her first start in the James Ryerson barn was a good one, and I think she’s found the right field here.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,6

RACE 8: RISK TAKING (#5)
Capo Kane must prove that his local stakes victory last month was no fluke, as he stretches out in distance and faces additional pace pressure. He really had everything his own way on the front end in that Jerome score, setting a slow pace on a day when speed appeared to have an advantage. Now the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as a stretching-out sprinter Mr. Doda and Donegal Bay also figure to vie for the lead. Capo Kane seems pretty talented, and his pedigree indicates that a little more ground isn’t supposed to hinder him. I’m just a little skeptical that he can repeat his last effort while overcoming adversity. Of those entering this Withers off maiden victories, I prefer the morning line favorite Risk Taking. This Chad Brown trainee finally woke up last time after mildly disappointing in his first couple of starts. He clearly wanted no part of sprinting in his Belmont debut, though he did gallop out strongly that day. A turf experiment failed, but stretching out on dirt and adding blinkers seemed to do the trick last time out. He was visibly more engaged right from the start with that equipment change and traveled well to the quarter pole before overhauling the leaders in the lane. He finished up like he relished this distance, and he wouldn’t have to improve much on that 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this field.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,3,6,7
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,6,7