by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 9 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 5 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 9: 2 - 10 - 1 - 9
RACE 3: WAR STOPPER (#6)
In what amounts to an unusually weak race for this level, a horse like Wild Cat West has to be taken very seriously. He didn’t show much speed in his debut at Keeneland, but he did stay on well in the lane, and now he’s switching into the powerful Jason Servis barn off a private purchase. Servis is 7 for 19 (37%, $2.30 ROI) first off a trainer switch with maidens on the dirt over 5 years. There is pedigree for this colt to be a runner, since his dam is out of the Grade 2-placed router Sweet Lips. If he takes any kind of step forward, he’s going to be a handful here. Yet I’m trying to beat him with War Stopper. Some might say that the switch to dirt last time yielded basically the same result as before. Though, there are some reasons to be optimistic about his chances here. He was attempting to rally from the back of the pack on Cigar Mile day, when speed seemed to have a slight advantage. Turthermore, there’s no question that he was meeting a significantly tougher field that day and will appreciate this class relief. The 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned last time is the highest in this field, and he has a right to do better now in this softer spot. Don’t be surprised to see a bit more speed out of him with the blinkers added. The intriguing new face in this line-up is the first time starter First Line. This gelding has apparently been working well for his debut and does have some pedigree to be a runner. His connections are clearly high on him, but it's still a tall order to win going a mile first time out.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7
RACE 6: READY TO ESCAPE (#1)
With Blindwillie McTell coming out of this race, the focus is now on a pair of horses exiting another race at this level on Dec. 14. Shamrocked finished ahead of Ready to Escape that day, but I think their trips had much to do with that. Sharmocked was able to get to his preferred position on the front end as Ready to Escape was rated from the start by Benjy Hernandez despite breaking well. Ready to Escape does best when he’s able to flaunt his early speed, so he was never really in a position to put forth a top effort last time. He should be fitter now making his second start off the layoff and new rider Declan Carroll would be wise to use his speed from this rail draw. If this horse gets back to his pair of races prior to the break, especially when he earned that 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure at Saratoga, the rest of these may be running for second. Shamrocked has a chance as well, but I think some others have a higher ceiling. The other horse to use prominently is Cerretalto, who would be a serious factor if able to run back to his impressive victory against New York-breds last time. He typically shows up with strong efforts at Aqueduct and nowhere else. Yet I haven't seen him put forth a top effort against the caliber of horses that he's facing here, and consistency is an issue for a runner who struggles to put together back-to-back winning efforts.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 7: BEBE BANKER (#5)
It’s difficult to find the focal point of this race. Playwright may attract some support due to his recent set of competitive speed figures, but he’s never been particularly formidable at this N1X state-bred allowance level in the past. His trainer, Danny Gargan, has been a little quiet so far this winter. Furthermore, when this horse has picked up minor checks in his last few starts he was doing so against weaker fields than the one he meets here. Yet, once you get past him things are awfully muddled. I’m not particularly optimistic about the prospects of Big Thicket repeating his last race, though I suppose that speed figure makes him the horse to beat here. Tiergan makes some sense as he returns from an extended layoff. He showed promise through the spring and summer last year and could be a factor here if he has progressed during the time away. He was always a big, goofy kind of horse who gave the impression that he might do better with a little added maturity. Some might try to make a case for Whistling Birds, who has run well against New York-breds in the past. However, I haven’t been thrilled with his recent losses against softer fields at Parx. Therefore, I’m going in a different direction with Bebe Banker. I tried this horse first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez last time, not expecting that the track would still be as wet as it was. Bebe Banker has never been particularly fond of wet tracks and seems particularly compromised on ones of the sealed, sloppy variety. All things considered, he actually didn’t run that badly last time and seems like a candidate to take a significant step forward second off the claim for Rudy. After all, he has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip here and this one-mile distance is more suitable for him.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,7,8,10
RACE 8: ARTHUR’S HOPE (#6)
I don’t have major knocks against the favorites in this race. My Boy Tate made a successful return from a 13-month layoff last time to get the job done over a couple of today’s rivals. A repeat of that effort may put him in the winner’s circle again, but he’s going to be a shorter price this time and you can argue that some of those who he’ll be facing have improved in the interim. That certainly seems to be true of T Loves a Fight, who ran what was arguably the best race of his tumultuous career last time when finishing third in the Gravesend. He probably would have finished closer at the end had Dylan Davis been able to get him off the rail a bit sooner in the stretch. This 6-year-old handles the 7- furlong distance without issue and seems adaptable to almost any pace scenario. I view him as a serious rival to My Boy Tate, and he’s going to be a better price. I’d also consider The Caretaker, who is attempting to come right back with another huge effort just 13 days after winning an allowance race here at the same distance. He was very impressive that day, but he’s not going to get much pace to close into here and it remains to be seen if he can duplicate that form against tougher company. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and that figures to make my top pick Arthur’s Hope difficult to pass. He’s just the only confirmed front-runner in this field and he’s also a horse who has historically done best when able to attain a forward position. He did that two back against My Boy Tate, but found himself contesting a fast pace that fell apart. Then last time he was simply outrun in the early going. Prior to returning from the layoff, he had earned some of the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field, and I think he might be able to get back to that form with a favorable trip.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,5,7 with 1,2,3,5,7