by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 9 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 5 - 4 - 8
Race 6: 7 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 6 - 8
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 9: 10 - 1A - 3 - 2 - 1
RACE 2: SANDY BELLE (#5)
Overnegotiate is likely to be favored in this spot, but this is not the type of short price that I would want to bet. She’s going to garner the majority of her support based on the strength of her turf form. While she has run some competitive dirt speed figures during her career, most of those came prior to her turf starts. Her more recent dirt form still makes her a legitimate contender, but hardly justifies the support that she is likely to attract. Archumybaby and Moondance Joy are both viable alternatives, but neither does a whole lot for me. Archumybaby is potentially a better fit for this race, since she does possess the tactical speed to stay within range of the leaders early. I thought that she should have gotten a more aggressive ride last time, as she finished the race with run left in the tank. That said, I am somewhat concerned that 5 1/2 furlongs is a bit too short for her. Distance is not a concern for my top pick, Sandy Belle. If anything, a cutback is going to significantly enhance her chances. Jockey Ramon Hernandez has one job, and that is to hustle her to the lead. If she is able to get clear early, I think she has an excellent chance to win this race. I realize that her recent form looks dreadful, but it’s important to note that she hasn’t been able to make the lead in any of those starts. It’s possible that she’s just lost her early speed, but I think she’s had some legitimate excuses. She was overmatched three back, she didn’t handle the turf two back, and last time she hopped at the start over a race that she didn’t like. I know that her career tally might lead some to believe that she’s better on a wet track, but that’s misleading. She really doesn’t handle sloppy, sealed surfaces and has always run her best races on harrowed tracks – whether they’re rated fast or good.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,7
RACE 3: DARK N CLOUDY (#5)
I have the utmost respect for Missle Bomb, who is coming off a stellar 2018 campaign in which he finished in the exacta in 12 of his 13 starts. Not only is this horse the epitome of consistency, but he seemingly is able to produce his best form regardless of class level. He tackled tougher fields in each of his last two starts and earned two of the highest speed figures of his career. If anything, today’s field is actually a bit softer than his two prior attempts at this level, and he deserves to be the clear favorite. I’m hardly against him, but I do think there are some viable alternatives. I can see how some might try to build a case for American Power, who finished just a half-length behind Missle Bomb last time, but I’m not a fan of this horse. He generally needs some pace to close into, and he’s unlikely to get that here. I prefer Dark N Cloudy, who is turning back in distance after finishing second at this level going a mile. While he got run down by Shadow Rider, I thought Dark N Cloudy actually ran quite well within the context of that race. He attended a legitimate early pace, took over sooner than jockey Irad Ortiz would have preferred, and understandably got tired in the late stages. The 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that performance puts him right on par with Missle Bomb, and he’s likely to be a better price. Over the last 5 years, trainer Jason Servis is 29 for 101 (29 percent, $2.23 ROI) with all turnbacks on dirt. At a bigger price, I would also throw Threes Over Deuces into the mix underneath. This horse faced some strong competition last summer and could get a big piece of this if he returns in top form.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 5 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,7
RACE 5: SPECIAL STORY (#1)
Proximate to Power was visually impressive when winning his last race, and he’s going to get bet down to favoritism off that eye-catching effort. He did run quite well that day, as he was off slowly and steadied badly soon after the start. Rounding the far turn he was still last with a double-digit margin to overcome. Generally, horses are not supposed to win from such positions, but Proximate to Power launched a wild stretch bid to pass them all and win by a widening two lengths. Of course, as with most late-running wins, his victory was largely a product of the fast pace ahead of him. His 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance is not among the fastest numbers in the race, or even the best of his career. I’m using this horse prominently, but I am under no illusions that he has any kind of edge over this field. This is a wide-open affair and I see four or five horses with strong chances to win. Javelin is certainly one of those after successfully returning from a layoff last time. While it’s encouraging that he nearly won at this level, he benefitted from a sloppy track that he likes and I think this field is slightly tougher. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and that figures to help likely leader Flatexcel. This horse would be very dangerous if he were to get back to his first start off the claim on Oct. 21. However, he’s hard to recommend off his recent form. I want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with the horse that should be the best price of the main contenders. I realize this barn is hard to take, but it’s impossible to deny that Special Story has run a series of competitive speed figures coming into this race. He was in contention until deep stretch going a mile two back, and then last time I thought he was hindered by a very wide trip while again racing against a tougher field. This drop in class should work to his advantage, and I like that he’s getting a rider switch back to Dylan Davis. He’s going to get somewhat ignored in a confusing race, and I don’t think he’s a far less likely winner than the favorites.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,8
RACE 7: WINE NOT (#3)
House Limit will probably get sent to post as the favorite in this race off a visually impressive 16-length maiden score last time. However, his TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort suggests that he’s merely another player in this race, rather than the horse to beat. The biggest question for House Limit is one of class, since he beat the equivalent of maiden claiming foes last time. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so he is unlikely to control the tempo on the front end. Mr. Dougie Fresh is another short price that must be considered off the claim by Jason Servis. It’s not as if he even needs to improve much at all to win this race, since the 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for his most recent victory is among the best numbers in the field. Yet I think there are some better prices to consider, one of which is Allured. His first start against winners was dull, but I think he’s going to appreciate the stretch-out, since he ran deceptively well in his maiden efforts going this distance. That was especially true three back on Oct. 5, when he overcame a wide trip against a bias to close for second. The aforementioned runners are all part of my play, but my top pick is Wine Not. This gelding actually ran a strong race to be a close fourth in the Empire Classic two back, and then ran on well to be third despite getting very little pace to close into last time. I’ve always felt that a one-turn mile is best for him, yet he hasn't had that many chances going this exact distance. The main knock against him is that he so rarely wins, having collected his last victory in July 2017. However, he’s been entered in some tough spots this year, and I feel that he’s actually been in the best form of his career since the early summer. Some may be deterred by the layoff, but it's worth noting that he missed a chance to race on a day that racing was cancelled a few weeks ago. Furthermore, George Weaver does excellent work off layoffs of this type (99 TimeformUS Trainer Rating).
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7,8
Trifecta: 3,7 with 3,7 with 1,5,6,8
RACE 8: CELTIC CHAOS (#6)
I have no knocks against likely favorite Gold for the King. It was a little silly that the public made him as low as 3-5 last time in the Gravesend considering the overall strength of that field. He actually ran fine in defeat, essentially repeating the speed figure that he earned in his November romp going this distance. If he shows up with his top effort, he is unlikely to lose this race. However, he’s 6-5 on the morning line and there are other viable options in this field. I think it’s important to note that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. While that may not strongly affect Gold for the King’s chances, it could heavily impact the trips of a few others. For instance, horses such as Royal Asset and Syndergaard could wind up chasing the speedy Jewel Can Disco, compromising their ability to see out the distance. Two horses that figure to benefit from a hot pace up front are Honor Up and Celtic Chaos. I have plenty of respect for Honor Up, who ran extremely well to win last time and has been in career form since switching into Michelle Nevin’s barn. I’m using him prominently, but I’ve landed on Celtic Chaos as my top selection, as he figures to be a better price. This deep closer rarely gets an ideal setup in his races, but he can be highly effective when everything lines up for him. That figures to be the case here, as 7 furlongs is probably his best distance and this race could be falling apart late. Some may be deterred by his poor effort in the Fall Highweight last time, but that was not an easy spot and three-quarters is on the short side. He had previously been in the best form of his career for Brad Cox and he’s likely to be no better than third choice in this field.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,9
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 4,5,9