by David Aragona
After a series of weather-related incidents – The Relentless Freeze, The Rapid Thaw, and most recently, The Impenetrable Fog – it appears that we’re finally poised to execute a full card of racing on Saturday at Aqueduct – provided that Mother Nature has no more tricks up her sleeve.
Saturday’s card centers around the Jerome, which goes as race 8. Eight 3-year-olds have signed on to compete, but it’s really all about the return of Grade 1 Champagne winner Firenze Fire. As long as he can rebound from a poor showing in California, he looks to have this group at his mercy. Seven Trumpets is regarded as the primary challenger, but he’s a question mark stretching out to a mile given his sprint-oriented pedigree. I prefer Coltandmississippi as a possibility to round out the exacta, if I'm forced to delve that deep into the race.
While the Jerome may not be the most stimulating handicapping puzzle, the other races on this card are not nearly as straightforward, and I see plenty of opportunities to seek out value throughout the day.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 2: 7 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 9 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 12 - 3 - 2 - 14
RACE 2: CAIN IS ABEL (#7)
Belleville Spring is clearly the horse to beat as he drops out of stakes company into this maiden race. After showing plenty of greenness in his debut, he ran a much more professional race last time. He had to wait for room heading around the far turn, and made a strong late rally once clear in the lane. If he merely repeats that effort, he will be awfully tough to beat. However, there are a few interesting second-time starters in this race – and one in particular that appears to have plenty of room for improvement. Cain Is Abel was bet strongly in his debut, going off as the 3-1 second choice in a competitive race. However, despite that support, he performed like a horse who needed the experience. He was bumped at the start while off about a length slowly, putting him behind a wall of horses heading down the backstretch. He was running on willingly while racing down inside, but was stymied in behind tiring rivals as he tried to advance. Junior Alvarado was forced to ride him tentatively coming to the top of the stretch and alter course. He didn’t do much running in the last quarter-mile, but it’s likely that he got something out of the effort. I think we’re going to see this well-bred runner put forth a more proficient performance this time.
Win: 7
Exacta Box: 5,7
RACE 4: SALTY SLEW (#9) / ED’S QUICK CAT (#1)
I’m fairly skeptical of the likely favorites in this race. Tammany Giant and Catapult Jack are exiting a common race, and earned competitive speed figures for their efforts. However, the quality of that field was quite suspicious and I think they’re not wholly trustworthy. I prefer two alternatives, both of whom will be at much more palatable prices. My top pick is Salty Slew. At first glance, he just looks too slow, but I think you can make some excuses for him. His first three starts came as a 2-year-old, so he has a right to have matured since then. The first couple of those races came at NYRA tracks against much better fields than the one he meets today. While I’m generally not a fan of horses shipping in from Finger Lakes, his two races there are not as bad as they seem. On both occasions, he had trouble at the starts, which cost him valuable early position. He obviously needs to break cleanly this time. At an even bigger price, I also want to use Ed’s Quick Cat. I know that these connections, and particularly this rider, are hard to trust. However, this horse has potent early speed, and may be able to open up on this group early. Both of his 2017 races came on turf, but he actually has a decidedly dirt-leaning pedigree. He now adds blinkers after beating out in his two prior starts.
Win/Place: 1,9
Exacta Key Box: 1,9 with 1,5,6,9
RACE 5: OSTROLENKA (#1)
My Boy Tate gets a real class test here as he steps up into stakes company for the first time. His last two races have been fast. That was especially true last time when he destroyed the field by nearly 10 lengths, earning a field-best 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure. If he repeats that kind of effort here, the rest may be running for second. Nevertheless, I want to see him prove it against these seasoned stakes performers. Most of his primary challengers are exiting last fall’s Hudson at Belmont. The pace of that race was slow (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), which gave the edge to Eye Luv Lulu. Horses such as Pat On the Back and Celtic Chaos were both compromised by a lack of early speed that day, and deserve respect in this spot. However, the horse that interests me most is the Hudson winner Ostrolenka. Like Eye Luv Lulu, he used his versatility to work out a favorable trip that day, stalking the pace before taking over just before the wire. Some may drop off his bandwagon following a disappointing recent run at Parx Racing, but I think he deserves a pass for that performance. If you watch the replay of that race, it was run during a driving snowstorm, conditions that he will not encounter on Saturday. His biggest obstacle will be a likely wet track with rain in the forecast, but he seemed to handle that kind of going back in July at Saratoga. He should be able to get a jump on the deep closers. I’ll primarily use him with My Boy Tate, but I also want to include Pat On the Back, whose last race suggests that he may be set for a strong 4-year-old season.
Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,2,4
Exacta: 1 with 3,5,6
RACE 6: LIGHT THE VOW (#6) / BEST SURPRISE (#5)
It was very difficult to make the morning line for this one, since three of the main contenders have just been claimed away from the hot Linda Rice barn, and only two horses in the entire field are coming out of a common race. Given the overall lack of pace, Polar City feels like one that will take money. However, he was facing fairly weak groups of maidens in recent starts and I think he’s vulnerable. As for the others, I’m not fully Convinced Daddy’s Home is a dirt horse, and Son of Mine has not proven to me that he really wants to go this far. I’m inclined to go in a different direction. One horse that deserves consideration is Best Surprise. I think you have to be somewhat forgiving of his return from the layoff last time. That race featured a very slow early pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) and was dominated on the front end. Best Surprise was shuffled back to last early and raced out of position throughout. Now he adds blinkers and I believe he’s likely to take a step forward. However, he’ll need to do so because his prior races don’t make him fast enough to beat these. I’ll definitely use him, but the runner that may offer the best value is Light the Vow. I know that this 1-for-17 gelding does not have the most attractive slate of races. However, I’m intrigued by two factors today – the stretch-out in distance and the prospect of a wet track. He’s only raced in dirt routes twice, and they were two solid efforts, especially compared with his surrounding performances. Furthermore, he’s run some of his best races of surfaces with some moisture in them. He was facing a tougher field last time and now gets some needed class relief for his second start against winners.
Win/Place: 5,6
Exacta: 5,6 with 2,3,4,5,6
RACE 7: COLORFUL CHARADES (#6)
Shimmering Moon looks like the horse to beat by a slim margin. She’s consistently performed well against New York-breds and now moves up into open company. Her main rival appears to be Harkness, who has less of a desire to win races than the morning-line favorite, but has nevertheless run well recently. She was compromised by a slow pace last time and should encounter more early zip here. I’ll use both of these runners, but there’s a longshot in this group that I think deserves some consideration. At first glance, Colorful Charades looks to be too slow to contend with this group, but you need to pick apart her form a bit. She actually ran quite well in her debut, surviving a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) to win. The horse that she beat that day, Tequilita, would go on to become a multiple stakes-winning sprinter in subsequent months. Colorful Charades was then thrown to the wolves in two Grade 1 attempts and, all things considered, she didn’t even run that badly in the Frizette. They experimented with two starts on turf despite the fact that she has minimal pedigree for that surface, and now she gets back to dirt. A wet track would not hurt, either.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,8