PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   7 - 2/2B - 4 - 6
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   9 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 7:   3 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 9:   11 - 2 - 7 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: PLAYINGWITHMATCHES (#5)

I’m not trying to beat Playingwithmatches (#5), who seems like a deserving favorite in this starter optional claimer. He was simply overmatched in his career debut when he chased the pace and faded. Yet he’s stepped forward in each subsequent start since then. He won his second start in game fashion, turning back a mid-stretch challenge to win at a big price. His connections got a little ambitious trying that lucrative $500k New York Stallion Series stakes after that, but he was hardly disgraced, just missing third after setting the early pace. The 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that performance makes him a standout in here, and that number has been verified. The winner returned to finish third against open company in the Jerome, and third-place finisher Lifetime of Chance just missed next time, improving his speed figure by 4 points. He has to handle a stretch-out to a mile here, but he’s bred to go that far as a son of Bellamy Road. I prefer him to the logical runners who could take money. Linda Rice entered a pair in here, of which Mullingar (#2) could take more money as he makes his first start off the claim. Rice’s recent claims have had an inordinate amount of success this winter, but this horse would need to improve. The same goes for Inspeightoftrainer (#3), who got a great pace setup en route to his maiden victory. I also considered the Maryland shipper It’s Viper (#6), but he has no early speed and may not get that much pace to close into here. Furthermore, Brittany Russell is just 6 for 44 (14%, $0.78 ROI) in dirt races at NYRA over the past 5 years.

WIN: #5 Playingwithmatches, at 7-5 or greater

RACE 7: LIAM’S FIRE (#3)

There is no shortage of early speed in this starter allowance affair, and the quickest of them all in the early going may be Ikigai (#6). This runner put in a big effort last time, as he set an honest pace and nearly hung on after taking a big lead into the stretch. However, now he could face early pressure from the likes of Upper Level (#4), who is always contesting the pace, and Fast N Fearious (#1), who has the speed to be involved when he breaks cleanly. I do think Ikigai is most dangerous of those who will be vying for the front end, but I prefer some rivals who can come from off the pace. The most logical of those is Blinding Light (#2). He’s not a deep closer, but he can be effective from mid-pack. I didn’t love his last effort when he was no match for Digital Future as the odds-on favorite, but that race did feature a slow pace that may have worked against him. My top pick is Liam’s Fire (#3). This horse was seemingly being given a race for fitness off the layoff when he was competing in that $12,500 claimer for the waiver, so I don’t want to hold that performance against him. He showed significant improvement last time on the cutback in distance, and I do think he’s generally shown himself to be a better sprinter. He put in a strong rally from off the pace last time, and he figures to get a similar setup once again. Some may dismiss him due to connections, but Amira Chichackly won a race yesterday and jockey Katie Davis has been riding well with limited opportunities.

WIN: #3 Liam's Fire, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 9: WATASHA (#11)

I’m playing against likely favorite Patient Capital (#5). I don’t quite buy the sudden improvement that he showed last time at this level. He had a lot working in his favor that day, as he got to enjoy an uncontested early lead in a race where the pace completely held together. I think he’s better judged off his prior form, and those races hardly make him a standout here. There appears to be more competition for the front end this time, even after the scratches of some speedy longshots. The other horse who figures to take money is Money Supply (#3), but I’m also skeptical of his chances. He got a great trip when sent off as the 9-5 favorite in the other division of that Dec. 18 allowance race, but he failed to produce a late kick in the stretch. I think he’s better at shorter distances than this, and he figures to be an underlay for popular connections. My top pick is Watasha (#11). He competed in that same race as Patient Capital last time, and finished 7 lengths behind that foe. Yet Watasha didn’t get the best ride that day, as he was rated off that slow pace, and only asked for his best once the leaders had gotten away from the pack. He’s better when he’s ridden more aggressively, and I would imagine that the connections will be looking for him to get into a better position from this far outside post. It’s only his second attempt at a mile, but he’s bred to go this far and actually finished well last time considering the situation. I also want to use some closers at bigger prices. Complete Agenda (#2) is returning just 7 days after winning a starter allowance race going this distance. Yet Linda Rice is 6 for 20 (30%, $2.97 ROI) with last-out winners returning in 5 to 10 days in Aqueduct dirt races over the past 5 years. He has plenty of prior efforts that make him competitive against this field. I would even use longshot Royal Tryst (#7), who was actually closing best of all in the other division of that Dec. 18 allowance race. He didn’t run as well in the slop last time, but he should appreciate the turnback in distance to a one-turn mile.

WIN: #11 Watasha, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 2,7