by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 7 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 9 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 6: 8 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 8 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 1 - 5 - 4 - 2
RACE 1: VOICE OF SPRING (#3)
Possible favorite Beautiful Karen seemed to have found the right field last time when she was sent off at 4-5 following a nose defeat at this level in November. However, a pressured early pace took its toll on her, and she succumbed to the late rally of I’m Fine. Perhaps the turnback to 6 furlongs will help her, as she does appear to be the controlling speed this time. Yet she will probably go favored once again, and she’s starting to run out of chances. I prefer Linda Rice’s other runner, Voices of Spring, who is my top pick. This filly looked so full of promise in that debut at Belmont last year. She was reserved at the back of the pack early and appeared to be losing interest on the far turn. Yet when she was navigated down to the rail at the quarter pole she took off, flying past runners late before galloping out strongly. She was justifiably bet down to 5-2 for her second start, but showed none of that same ability, failing to get involved over a sloppy track. So which version of her do we get as she returns from a layoff? The prospect of rain on Friday night certainly doesn’t help, but it’s unclear if the wet track was the only excuse for her last effort. I’m giving her one more chance off the layoff. You also have to consider first time starters. Qualifying Offer seems like the most dangerous of those, as she’s a half-sister to a couple of talented runners. Her last workout was in company with Smooth With a Kick, who races in the Ladies Handicap on Sunday.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 4,5 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 2: VIRADIA (#5)
Violent Trick feels like the kind of horse who could be 4-5 and gallop to an easy victory, or not favored at all and finish off the board. Based on her form from early 2020, she has no business running for a $12,500 tag. So what necessitates the drop in class, and can she maintain enough of her prior form to beat this mediocre field? It’s also worth noting that this is a horse who was once in the barn of Jorge Navarro. While she briefly held her form in her first start for Todd Pletcher two back, things fell apart last time and now she hasn’t been seen in 6 months. I’d use her defensively, but she’s not the kind favorite I want to pick. The logical alternatives are Take Charge Tina and Mongolian Humor, but neither does much for me. The former is a better turf/synthetic runner. While she handled a sloppy track last time, her form on the main track is inconsistent. Mongolian Humor was once good enough to compete in graded stakes races, but her form tailed off last year. She, too, is taking a significant drop in class and isn’t the easiest runner to trust. I’m going in a different direction with Viradia. She already dropped down to this level last time and failed to make much of an impact at 2-1. However, I didn’t think she got the best trip that day. She was awkwardly handled in the early going, and then seemed to have trouble running through kickback late on a day when that seemed to be a significant issue on the main track. I expect a better effort this time, and I’m glad to see Kendrick Carmouche take over the reins.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,7
RACE 3: BOWING SNOWMAN (#7)
Charlie Five will probably beat this field if he runs back to his maiden-breaking performance last time. However, I do have some questions about that race. It was the first of the day, and we do sometimes see the first race at Aqueduct be an aberration from a timing standpoint, especially during the winter. He earned a speed figure that’s faster than his rivals have run, but horses have run back out of that race to regress. It’s not clear if the effort is quite as strong as it seemed at the time, and there are some viable alternatives in this field. One of those is obviously Conformist, who looks like the solid second choice. This colt showed promise in his debut at Churchill and ran reasonably well off the claim for Rob Atras last time. The winner of that race, Fire Sword, appears to have some talent, and this runner achieved a strong 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure in defeat. He’s definitely on my tickets, but I’m instead going with Bowing Snowman as my top pick. This son of Laoban didn’t show much in his debut, but he’s run much better in each of his last two starts. That maiden race won by Prospect Mountain has been a strong affair, out of which multiple horses have returned to improve their speed figures by large margins. Plus, Bowing Snowman ran very well within the context of that race, making a premature move on the far turn in a race that fell apart late. He validated that performance last time when breaking his maiden in the fog. He has to run faster to beat the favorites, but Horacio DePaz is a solid 6 for 26 (23%, $3.16 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on dirt over the past 5 years.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,6
RACE 5: SKYLER’S SCRAMJET (#9)
You can make a reasonable case for almost every runner in this highly competitive $25,000 claiming event. Therefore, I think it would be a mistake to just default to the likely favorite McErin. This horse can definitely win if he merely holds his form, but he’s coming off a victory, and is racing first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez with leading rider Kendrick Carmouche named. That’s just a recipe for him to be an underlay in a confusing race. His two main rivals appear to be Square Shooter and Clench. They each exit different races on Dec. 19, a day that featured a strong rail bias, and both were against the track. However, at least Square Shooter ran well in his performance, closing from well back after an awkward start to get up for second. Clench was meeting a much tougher field, but he never got involved after getting outrun early. That said, horses have returned from the allowance race he exits to do well, and he is getting significant class relief. I’m trying to beat these shorter prices with Skyler’s Scramjet. I’m not sure why he was bet down to 2-1 last time in such a competitive field, but that was a tough spot and he was hindered by getting caught up in a fast pace with Big Mountain. I won’t hold that against him, and he has prior form that would make him a player here. He’s not the easiest horse to trust, but he is now making his first start off the claim for A. C. Avila, who is 7 for 31 (23%, $5.07 ROI) in such situations on dirt over the past 5 years. I’m hoping he gets the right kind of outside stalking trip this time.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 6,7,8
RACE 8: A LIFE THAT’S GOOD (#3)
This race is probably all about the two favorites, who do come in with superior speed figures. Laobanonaprayer earned a field-best 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure when she won that lucrative New York Stallion Series race by 8 lengths last time. A repeat of that performance will make her tough, but keep in mind that she was facing a weaker field that day despite the large purse. This is arguably the toughest test she’s faced yet, and she’s being asked to turn back to 6 1/2 furlongs, a distance that may be a tad short for her. I’m using her, but I have more faith that her main rival Vacay will step forward. This filly didn’t exactly distinguish herself in her debut, but she ran much better to win the Key Cents last time, finishing powerfully after rating off the pace. A little added ground should help, but she nevertheless seems like more of a natural sprinter than Laobanonaprayer. I’m using both, but I’m interested in one alternative who figures to be a much bigger price. A Life That’s Good was entered on the wrong surface for her debut, and Jeremiah Englehart quickly made the correction in her second start. She’s bred to be a dirt sprinter, and she ran to that pedigree last time, winning off by over 5 lengths in impressive fashion. Some will be discouraged by the fact that the runner-up lost a maiden claimer next time out, but that filly actually improved her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 9 points in the process, while third-place finisher Coffee Bar improved by 20 points when breaking her maiden next time out. Furthermore, Jeremiah Englehart is a remarkable 8 for 20 (40%, $3.70 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in NY-bred dirt sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with ALL
RACE 9: SAY MOI (#1)
The finale is among the most competitive races on this Saturday card. It’s hard to know where the public will go with regard to making a favorite. I had a hard time choosing between South of the Shore and Love and Love when making the morning line, as both have questions to answer. Love and Love comes into this race off a solid victory against New York-breds, but she got a perfect trip and this is a step up in class. South of the Shore didn’t really ever look like a winner in her return last time, but she had a right to need that race and she has prior speed figures that would make her tough here. I’ll use both, but I think there are definitely others to consider. I ultimately decided that I wanted the horses exiting that Nov. 28 race at this level won by Kansas Kis. The winner returned with a strong runner-up finish on Friday, and others have come back out of that race to run well. Critical Value could attract some support as she stretches back out to a mile after finishing fifth in that race. She didn’t get the best trip, as she was steadied out of position in the opening furlong and had to rally from well off the pace. I’m using her, but I’ve never been her biggest fan. I instead went to Say Moi as my top pick. She finished one position ahead of Critical Value last time, but she didn’t have the smoothest journey either. She was held up in behind horses coming to the quarter pole and chose to follow the wrong rival in heavy favorite Center Aisle, who eventually backed up in her face. I’m not convinced that more distance necessarily helps either of these runners, but Say Moi has no had less-than-ideal trips in two of her last three starts, and I think she can rebound.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,10
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3,4,7,8,10