by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   6 - 10 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   11 - 2 - 5 - 4

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: MILLS (#5)
Chief Know It All will win this race if he merely maintains his current form for Danny Gargan. However, there are some lingering questions around this runner. Why is he dropping down to this $12,500 claiming tag after dominating tougher rivals in his prior start at Churchill Downs? This seems like the sort of horse that could do quite well given the purse structure at Aqueduct over the winter, yet they’re basically giving him away in this spot. He was actually going to be claimed last time in Kentucky, but the transaction was voided following what was listed in the Equibase chart as a “positive test.” This once classy runner clearly has some issues, and I’m just not totally convinced that he’s going to maintain the form we saw last fall in this return to the NYRA circuit. If he fails to show up, this race gets far more confusing. I don’t particularly like the obvious alternative Daddy D T. While this Rudy Rodriguez trainee has earned plenty of competitive speed figures in the past, he hasn’t run particularly well in either start since the layoff and it seems unlikely that the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles will suit him. I’d rather get a bit more creative if trying to beat the favorite, so I’m taking a shot with Mills. I understand that there’s a major issue with this gelding: he doesn’t win. Yet, he’s also been placed in spots that are a bit too tough for him for the majority of the past year. This runner has probably needed some class relief for a long time, but his connections were content to let him pick up some minor checks along the way. Now that he’s a 10-year-old, they’re dropping him down to the level at which he can be competitive. Despite the drastic drop, it’s not as if his recent form has tailed off that much, as he’s continued to earn speed figures that put him in the mix against this field. He relishes two turns so I trust him to get this 9-furlong distance more than most. I normally don’t like to endorse horses who haven’t won in over two years, but he’s going to be a generous price because of that and I believe he actually merits respect here.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL
 

RACE 5: COOLBOY (#6)
It’s difficult to find the center of this race since the major contenders are quite closely matched. Potential favorite Seven Is Heaven goes out for the powerful Linda Rice barn and just missed when outrun in the late stages by fellow closer Vicar’s Legend in a similar spot last time. However, he got a pretty good trip that day in a race where the pace fell apart and he’s meeting a slightly tougher field this time. Bustin Hoffman would be tough if able to run back to his performance two back when he was racing first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He crossed the wire first that day but was justifiably disqualified for deep stretch interference. He disappointed against open company last time, but he’s back at the right class level now and has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip. I’m using both, but this is a competitive field where I think we can get a bit more creative. My top pick is Coolboy, who might be in the best form of anyone in this field right now. That 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for his last start is clearly the best number in this race and he achieved it the hard way, carving out very fast fractions on a clear lead before getting cut down by the superior Big Engine late. I loved the way this colt battled back when passed last time and I think he’s going to be tough if he repeats that performance. Some may question where that race came from, but he had run deceptively well in his prior starts, including in his turf start three back when he overcame a track bias to be fourth. Furthermore, although the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, no one is quick enough to go with Coolboy early and he could just run them off their feet.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,8,10
 

RACE 7: VIOLENT POINT (#5)
Fierce Lady figures to be a prohibitive favorite in this spot as she returns following a brief layoff. While she owns a set of speed figures that make her the horse to beat, she’s a filly who came out ready to fire early in her 2-year-old season and her form has subtly but steadily declined in each start since then. Her new off-the-pace running style has worked when she’s drawn outside post positions in each of her last two starts, but she could find it more difficult to close from behind breaking from the rail this time. I’m inclined to try and beat her, but all of the logical alternatives in this race come with flaws of their own. Big Q would be the biggest threat if able to run back to her impressive score in the Key Cents two back, but you have to wonder where that effort came from given her surrounding form. We cashed on A Freud of Mama when she took to dirt last time, winning that $500,000 stakes as a ridiculous overlay. While she may have appreciated the muddy, sealed track, she could get that kind of surface again with rain and snow in the forecast on Saturday. Originally, I had tabbed Ancient Brown as my preferred alternative to these runners, but she will instead participate in an optional claiming race on Monday. Therefore, after reevaluating the options, I'm taking a shot with Violent Point. This Mark Casse trainee has to get a little faster to beat this field based on her last performance, but I think she has some things working in her favor. She has the speed to be forwardly placed from the start in a race that features a murky pace scenario. Fierce Lady is shown to be in front by the Pace Projector, but she may not be ridden that way. Violent Point was able to get to the lead last time and was game when just barely losing to a green Playtone. That was over a dry strip and she should appreciate any precipitation that falls during the day at Aqueduct as she ran one of her best races over a muddy, sealed surface in her second start at Saratoga.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,8
 

RACE 8: AMERICAN ANTHEM (#2)
The classy Mind Control was a Grade 1 winner at ages 2 and 3 and he seeks to regain his position at the top of the sprint division as he returns in this Grade 3 Toboggan. He has the speed figures to back up that impressive résumé, earning a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figures in winning the H. Allen Jerkens and a 122 when taking down the Bay Shore over this course and distance last April. He got a planned layoff following his Grade 1 triumph last summer, and he has apparently been training well for his return. The outside draw should suit him and his tactical speed should play very well in his largely paceless affair. He’s the horse to beat, but I’m always reticent to accept a short price on runners returning from layoffs like this, especially for a barn that hasn’t had much success with this move. His main rival is clearly American Anthem. It’s been a bumpy road for this horse since his successful 3-year-old season, which saw him win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens and place in a pair of Grade 1 events. He achieved modest success during an abbreviated 4-year-old campaign, but it’s been difficult for him to get back to that level since. Yet now makes his second consecutive start for a new trainer, this time going out for Danny Gargan. He disappointed when last seen at Keeneland, but he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he was shuffled back early and forced down inside for the stretch drive, which probably wasn’t the place to be. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead and he has the tactical speed to be in front of these early. I’m inclined to take an optimistic view despite some lingering questions about his form. I would also include runners like Sunny Ridge, Nicodemus, and T Loves a Fight, but all may be compromised by a lack of pace in this race. Of those, Nicodemus is the one who scares me most since his best efforts clearly make him good enough to beat this field and Linda Rice isn’t usually this aggressive off a layoff.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,8
Trifecta: 2 with 4,8 with 1,4,5,7,8