by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 6 - 1/1A
Race 4: 1 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 6 - 3 - 8 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 8 - 6 - 3 - 7
RACE 1: FANGIRL (#1)
Shanghai Bonnie is the horse to beat as she attempts to break her maiden after losing by slim margins in her first two starts. She benefited from a speed-favoring surface in her debut at Saratoga, but she nevertheless ran quite well that day, gamely hanging onto the lead until she was bumped off stride just before the wire. It took her more than 4 months to get back to the races after that, but she returned in solid form at Laurel last time. While the winner and third-place finisher in that race were both longshots, they benefitted from a fast early pace. Shanghai Bonnie outdueled her main rival on the front end and was unlucky to lose. If she repeats either of her performances she will be a handful here, but I think she faces some significant rivals. My top pick is Fangirl, who may be able to outsprint the favorite to the front. This filly set an extremely fast pace in her debut, evidenced by the red color-coded pace figures and her massive 140 Early Pace Rating in TimeformUS PPs. She maintained an advantage until the quarter pole, at which point she faded badly. It’s taken her nearly 4 months to get back to the races, but she appears to be working swiftly and the addition of blinkers suggests they will flaunt her speed again. Her trainer, John Terranova, has very encouraging numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 9 for 30 (30 percent, $2.95 ROI) with maiden second-time starters in dirt sprints. In addition to these two, I would also want to prominently use second time starter Enjoyitwhilewecan. While I'm not sure that she was facing the toughest field in her debut, she did run well within the context of the race after making a middle move into contention to chase her stablemate. I would also give some consideration to Up at Dawn, who has some pedigree and debuts for a barn that can win with first time starters.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,7
RACE 2: SANDY LANE (#4)
Admiral Blue is dropping down to the bottom level as his form has steadily declined since the summer. While he’s a shell of the horse that he once was, he has nevertheless earned a series of speed figures that make him the horse to beat in this field. Furthermore, he handles the 9-furlong distance, which could be a major hurdle for his primary rival Incubator. Rudy Rodriguez adds blinkers back into the mix in an attempt to wake this horse up, but I still have some doubts about his ability to win a race at any level at this point in his career. If you like betting speed horses, Incubator is your best option. He is going to be in front early, especially if Eric Cancel rides him as aggressively as he did last time. However, that victory came around one turn, and he has had trouble staying two-turn distances in the past. Furthermore, he could receive early pressure from Ultimateenticement today. It’s an odd spot for this Michelle Nevin trainee, and I have to think he’s in here to use his speed after breaking so sharply at 6 furlongs last time. If those two do engage on the front end, I think Sandy Lane has a big chance to pick up the pieces at a healthy price. He looks like one of the cheaper horses in this race off his conditioned claiming performances at Laurel, but he may just be rounding into career form as a 4-year-old. I really liked the way he won two back as his rider did not making it easy for him to win, placing him behind horses in the stretch and forcing him to rally through traffic. He couldn’t quite pair up victories last time, but he improved his speed figure while closing effectively into a more moderate pace. He’s never had the opportunity to race around two turns on dirt, but his pedigree suggests that he should relish the added ground. I like the rider switch to Dylan Davis and returning trainer Robert Klesaris knows how to send out winners.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6
RACE 5: GOLD FOR THE KING (#1)
Distance is an important discussion point when evaluating the two likely favorites in this Toboggan. Based solely on their efforts in last month’s Gravesend, Skyler’s Scramjet is probably the one that you want. He was coming off a significant layoff for Michelle Nevin and ran one of the best races of his career in just losing by a head to the talented Recruiting Ready. However, that race was run over 6 furlongs, and this gray son of Creative Cause will now be attempting to stretch his speed out to seven-eighths. He’s had limited opportunities going this far in the past, but one can make the case that he’s probably better going a bit shorter than this. That’s a major distinction between him and Gold for the King, since the Charlton Baker runner is certainly better going distances farther than 6 furlongs. While he finished a 3/4-length behind Skyler’s Scramjet in the Gravesend, I thought Gold for the King may not have appreciated racing down inside for much of the race. He certainly did not appreciate the trip that he received last time when losing as the even-money favorite against New York-breds. Nothing went right that day, as he was squeezed back soon after the start and forced to rate behind a relatively moderate early pace. From there, Junior Alvarado was unable to work him into the clear despite having plenty of horse underneath him around the turn and into the stretch. He finally found a seam inside in the final eighth of a mile, but the race was already over at that point. Baker is now running him back on just 7 days’ rest, which is not a strong move for this barn. However, I’m going to take an optimistic view of the situation, as the majority of those runners were cheap claimers. Gold for the King seems to do best when he can stalk or even set a steady pace going this distance, and he figures to be forwardly placed this time given the lack of speed signed on. I like him to turn the tables on his main rival.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,5
Trifecta: 1 with 2 with ALL
RACE 8: BROADWAY BAY (#1)
This race was brought back from last week and, as it was in its original form, there is still a focus on the aged. Six horses in this field are 8 years old or older, including a couple of 10-year-olds. The shortest price among those senior members of the field is Peter’s Project, who is attempting to win his fourth consecutive start as he ships in from Finger Lakes. He is making his first start off the claim for connections that have had success with these types of runners in the past. While this gelding has been successful at a variety of distances during his career, I get the sense that this 9-furlong trip may be just beyond his ideal range. Calculated Risker, one of the youngest members of the field, is likely to go off as the favorite. While his recent form has tailed off, he’s been running against significantly tougher company in those races and now is getting some serious class relief. He has handled this distance before and I think he’s the horse to beat. However, both of the aforementioned runners will be short prices, and I think this race is more wide-open than that. I originally picked the Jeffrey Englehart entry before Cause I'm Alex scratched, but I'm actually more interested in his stablemate. Broadway Bay may seem less appealing to some, but he has been successful on the NYRA circuit in the past and I think he will benefit from the 9-furlong distance. This 16-time winner couldn’t catch Peter’s Project last time, but I thought he was hindered by the overall flow of that race. Notably, he comes from off the pace and this race could feature an honest pace with two key speeds signed on. Cause I'm Alex was a slightly more reliable option given his recent NYRA form, but we now figure to get a better price on Broadway Bay.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6