by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 9 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 9 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 1 - 9 - 5
Race 7: 9 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 5 - 1A - 9
RACE 2: MEBS WEB (#6)
It’s hard to know who the horse to beat might be in here, as none of the likely favorites are particularly trustworthy. I suppose Left Leaning Lucy could be the public choice after finishing a decent fourth in a 13-horse field at this level. However, she hasn’t exactly distinguished herself in any of her starts against winners, basically running the same decent yet uninspiring race every time. She should find herself forwardly placed in this spot, but there’s plenty of other speed signed on, with Wings of Fire and Charlotte Webley potentially causing real problems for her up front. I do prefer her to the those horses, as well as Princess in Charge, who hasn’t run very well in either start since returning from a layoff in Linda Rice’s barn. Tuff Bird is perhaps a legitimate option as she turns back in distance after fading badly against a tougher field last time out. I’m not thrilled with her prior form at Churchill Downs, but at least she was running some competitive speed figures then. I want to go in a different direction and shop for a price, so I’ve landed on Mebs Web. I know this filly looks a little slow compared to some of her rivals, but it’s not like she’s been earning figures too much slower than a rival like Left Leaning Lucy. Mebs Web’s last effort was obviously poor, but she was hurt by drawing the rail last time, as she continually got shuffled back after a flat-footed start. Now she makes her first start off the claim for A. C. Avila, who is 7 for 29 (24%, $5.14 ROI) first off the claim at NYRA over the past 5 years. She only has to improve marginally to be a player, and she figures to get some pace to close into.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4
RACE 3: TOOK CHARGE (#1)
The two horses drawn towards the outside figure to attract the bulk of support, but they have very different profiles. Instinctive Rhythm will be attempting to win his first start against winners after finally breaking his maiden in his fifth attempt last time out. While it did take him a while to get that diploma, he’s run relatively fast speed figures in all of his starts, and may not need to improve much on his victory against maiden company last time to have a major say in the outcome here. Money Ride will be attempting to rebound from a sixth-place finish last time out at this level, but he had a major excuse that day. He got bumped around when sandwiched between rivals at the start, ultimately steadying out to last in the early going. For a horse who does his best running on or near the lead, he made a strong late rally past half the field, albeit in a race that featured a quick pace. I think both of these runners are dangerous, but I’m very intrigued by a new face. Took Charge showed real talent early on in his career, defeating the stakes-placed Three Technique in his career debut while earning an impressive 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was off for a long time after that, but returned in strong form here last winter. Pressed through some very fast early fractions by today’s rival Money Ride, he put that one away before he was overhauled late. Given the amount of speed he displayed, it was odd that his connections decided to stretch him out in the Private Terms, and he predictably folded after running off early. Now he again returns from a lengthy break, but he’s posted some quick workouts and could play out as the controlling speed from the rail.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL
RACE 5: EKHTIBAAR (#4)
I have no major argument with anyone who argues that Creative Style is the most likely winner of this race. I suppose some could construe this as a negative drop, since he was claimed for $25,000 is now racing for half that price. Yet Danny Gargan is 7 for 17 (41%, $2.23 ROI) with 50% dropdowns over the past 4 years, so it’s something he does with a reasonable amount of success. Creative Style’s overall form has been solid, and a one-turn mile is probably his best distance. He did lose as the favorite last time, but he was taken a little out of his game to chase the pace in a race that was completely devoid of speed. If he shows up, I think he’s going to be tough for this group to handle. I slightly prefer him to his main rival Lucky Ramsey, who has run well in all of his recent starts, except for that loss to Creative Style two back in the slop. He may not have cared for the wet track, and he was also compromise by a slow pace, so I’m willing to forgive that performance. I’m just a little concerned about the lack of pace in this spot, since he’s a one-dimensional closer. I’m going to try to wire the field with Ekhtibaar. This horse has been off form recently, but he’s now getting significant class relief. He was simply overmatched in his two starts for Bruce Levine since returning from the layoff. I think his connections are just being realistic about the fact that he’s never going to get back to the career-best performances he put in for Jorge Navarro, and it’s not as if he didn’t run pretty cheaply for some prior trainers in the past. He has the tactical speed to control this on the front end, and his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures suggest that he’s still capable of winning a race like this when the pace goes his way.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,9
Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,2,5,7
RACE 7: COLORMEPAZZI (#9)
This is a tricky race in that all of the likely short prices have significant questions to answer. Perceived figures to be the prohibitive favorite, and he could trounce this field if he runs back to either of his prior dirt efforts. However, he’s required layoffs between all of his starts, and is now coming back off the longest break of his career – almost 11 months. Chad Brown has excellent statistics off layoffs of this type, but he’s nevertheless dropping this horse in for a tag. I’m using him defensively, but he’s not the kind of runner I’d want to bet at a short price. Jerusalem Gates brings solid form from Parx and appears to be a more logical fit at this level than the other short prices. However, he’s never run a particularly fast race and he, too, is returning from a layoff as he makes his 5-year-old debut. First Line’s good form had completely left him at the end of last year, so who knows what we’ll get from him on the class drop. Though, surely he’d be a threat even to the good version of Perceived if he runs back to his maiden victory at Saratoga. Given my problems with all of the aforementioned runners, I want to get a little more creative. Colormepazzi seems a little inferior to his rivals here at first glance, but I think he’s worth a closer look. He really improved when stretched out in distance last winter at Aqueduct, finishing a good third to Chowda in an allowance race before fading against stakes company. That minor regression in February was followed by a long layoff. He’s only made one start since then at Finger Lakes in October, where he didn’t run nearly as badly as the fourth-place finish would suggest. He broke awkwardly, and got rank when unwisely rated in the opening stages. He stayed on pretty well at the end, and I think he can move forward with that start under his belt. I like the outside draw and the fact that he has tactical speed in a race where his main rivals are hardly trustworthy.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,4
RACE 9: SUPER WICKED CHARM (#7)
This finale is a real head scratcher. It’s hard to even know where to begin given the jumbled nature of the field. I would guess that the entry will be favored with Unbridled John being the stronger half. It’s sometimes unwise to take horses coming off maiden claiming wins in these conditional claiming races, but he ran very well to win last time, overcoming a fast pace to hold off the closers. That 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up pretty well against this field, and it’s not like that effort came out of nowhere, as he had previously run well three back at Belmont. His biggest problem is that there is plenty of other speed to contend with. Mental Model, Bronxville, and his stablemate (who shares no common ownership) Freedom Force all figure to be ridden forwardly as well. That could set things up for a closer, and the logical one is probably Tiergan. I’m just not thrilled with taking him off his current form. Aside from one decent effort on the turf two back, his form has declined. His two dirt showings during October were terrible, and he would have to do better than that to have a say in the outcome here, even if he gets his preferred pace setup. If I’m going to take a closer, I’d rather it be a bigger price. Therefore, I’ll take a shot with Super Wicked Charm. Some may be deterred by his last performance, but he never had a chance sprinting against a tougher starter allowance field. He’s not really a turf horse, even though he ran well in that bog on Nov. 1, and his prior dirt form certainly gives him a shot here if the pace materializes. I don’t love him, but I just think he could get lost in the shuffle for low-profile connections in a race where many can win.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,9,11