by David Aragona
Saturday’s feature is the Jazil, which goes as race 3. Doyouknowsomething is the horse to beat after finishing a close fourth in last month’s Queens County against a tougher field. A repeat of that effort should be good enough to get the job done here, but he does face two worthy rivals. Harlan Punch has been in the best form of his career for David Jacobson, but has been more successful around one turn. Backsideofthemoon’s recent form has taken a turn in the wrong direction, but he is also capable of running well enough to win this when at his best. I’m also very much looking forward to the 8th race, in which Wonderful Light, the half-brother to Grade 1 winner By the Moon, is coming off a fast maiden win and will be looking to replicate that performance in his first start against winners. He clearly possesses some talent, but he will have to overtake the improved Westwood, who comes off a strong runner-up performance against allowance company.
From a wagering perspective, once we get past the first three races on this card, they get much tougher to handicap. I think there are plenty of opportunities to get creative in these races as a few favorites appear to be somewhat vulnerable.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 9 - 10
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 7 - 10
Race 6: 9 - 2 - 3 - 1/1A
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 2 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 9: 11 - 5 - 1 - 9
RACE 4: HALLOWEEN HORROR (#6)
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as Vilma, Devine Dental, and Karma Delight are all forecast to show early speed in this spot. A quick early tempo would obviously help the morning-line favorite, Starship Zeus. This horse is one that must be included in your wagers. He’s coming out of tougher spots and has run a series of speed figures that are simply faster than those of his rivals. The only knock against this runner is apparently his inability to win races. He’s just 2 for 36 in his career with 17 second- and third-place finishes. Therefore, I want to look elsewhere for my top selection. Another horse that I think should sit a good trip is Halloween Horror. At first glance, he looks a bit too slow to win this race, but I think there are reasons to be optimistic about his chances. Unlike some of his more experienced rivals, Halloween Horror has raced on dirt just four times in his career. Yet the last 3 of those are the best races he’s ever run, and he’s run reasonably well against some better horses. He was beaten by eventual Grade 3 Discovery winner Control Group back in August, and then gamely dueled with the vastly improved Pioneer Spirit two back. Last time Aqueduct, he was simply in over his head. Horses like Flash Trading, Westwood, and even Forest Blue would all be viable favorites in this spot and Halloween Horror hardly disgraced himself after chasing the pace 4-wide. He figures to work out a great trip from midpack and, as a newly turned 4-year-old, may still have some room for improvement.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5,9,10
RACE 5: WRONG BEN (#6)
The likely favorite is Benevolence, and deservedly so. He routinely runs speed figures that make him fast enough to win this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will get a fast pace to close into. The issue with Benevolence is that he just so rarely wins races. I’ll certainly include him in my wagers, but I need to pick others on top. Bear Clause appears to be well placed off the claim by Dave Cannizzo. This 4-time winner has been running in cheaper races, but has recently stepped up his performance level, running speed figures that are fast enough to win here. I’ll certainly use him, but the runner that interests me most at a price is Wrong Ben. At first glance, he appears to be up against it from a pace perspective. However, I think there’s a distinct possibility that he is the “speed of the speed” in this spot. Horses like Grassady, Appealing Henry, and Proletariat prefer to be forwardly placed, but they lack the early zip of Wrong Ben. I am well aware that Wrong Ben’s lone competitive speed figure was earned while riding a strong rail bias on March 11. However, I think it’s equally important to point out that he was up against difficult pace situations in each of his subsequent two starts. He was dueled into defeat by the talented Horoscope in his second start, and then contested another pace that collapsed May 28. Since then, he’s been gelded and now he returns showing a series of strong workouts. I like the rider switch to Martin Garcia, who knows how to be aggressive out of the gate.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,7,8,10
RACE 6: HOLDING ACES (#9)
The horse to beat is Scarf It Down as he turns back in distance. This horse has run well sprinting in the past and lands in a spot that figures to feature an honest pace. Over the past five years, Jeremiah Englehart is 15 for 61 (25 percent, $3.02 ROI) with horses going from routes to sprints on the dirt at NYRA. Special Story had some minor trouble in his prior start at Del Mar, but Robertino Diodoro has just mediocre statistics off trainer switches like this, and his price will be brought down by his entrymate. I’m trying to beat the favorites with Holding Aces. I know that his recent form looks concerning, but he’s had excuses. Something obviously went wrong three back at Belmont, but his two more recent races at Aqueduct have not been all that bad. He hung on well until the late stages two back, but the seven furlongs proved to be just a bit too far for him. Then last time he completely missed the break, spotting the field by 3 or 4 lengths, and actually ran on reasonably well to close for fifth. He’s subtly rounding back into better form and his top effort gives him a real chance to beat the favorites.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,3
RACE 7: BATTLE MIDWAY (#8)
I found this race to be incredibly difficult, because I don’t think it’s as simple as it might seem. Hammerin Aamer will be a clear favorite off the strength of his recent speed figures. However, I’m not sure that he’s quite as formidable as it appears. He beat a distinctly inferior field two back at Laurel when romping as the 1-2 favorite. Then last time, which he ran well within the context of the race, I’m not sure that we can trust the resulting speed figure. T R Crew, the winner, returned to run 13 Beyer points slower in his next start. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and Hammerin Aamer is a horse that is typically involved from the start. Spieth disappointed in the Discovery last time, but had previously traded decisions with Hammerin Aamer. However, his price will be driven down due to the fact that he’s part of a coupled entry. The most interesting horse in the race might be Admiral Blue, who gets a trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez, and has run plenty of races that would beat this group. I’ll certainly use him, but the horse that I want to bet is longshot Battle Midway. Over the course of 2016 and 2017, this horse made 26 starts without any significant layoff. After showing good form earlier last year, he just seemed to burn out as the year wore on. Now he returns off a two and a half month layoff and I think he lands in a good spot. While he’s run well around two turns on occasion, he’s really best at this one-turn mile distance. He was beaten by Hammerin Aamer and Spieth in the fall, but he’s supposed to get a more favorable pace scenario this time. When Battle Midway is at his best, he’s good enough to win a race like this.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 9: PRIMO PENTIMENTO (#11)
The options are fairly limited in this finale. The logical choice is Lightning Buzz, who has run the fastest speed figures and held his form well since the summer. He does receive a negative trainer switch as he’s been claimed by Oscar Barrera III, but he nevertheless appears to have landed in the right spot. Valyrian also makes some sense on the drop in class. His last start looks disappointing, but his connections unwisely decided to rate him that day. I imagine that they’ll revert to more aggressive tactics this time. I could use both of these runners, but the horse that I want to bet is Primo Pentimento. His last two performances were terrible, but I think circumstances played a role. Turf no longer seems to be his preferred surface, so I can excuse the Meadowlands effort. Then two back at Belmont, he got involved in a fast pace that collapsed while racing a tougher field than the one he meets here. If you look at this two sprint efforts prior to that, they’re actually pretty decent. Now he makes his first start as a new gelding, and I like that he’s drawn on the outside where he can stay out of trouble if he’s not fast enough to make the early lead.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,5,9