by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 1/1A - 4 - 5
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 7:   5 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 6 - 9
Race 9:   8 - 10 - 3 - 9

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: CINDY’S CHOICE (#5)
Laochi wheels back just 6 days after losing as the 7-5 favorite here on Sunday. However, she had some things working against her that day, as she ran into a live first time starter in winner Stone Creator and also was wide on a day that featured a rail bias. She had run well in her two prior starts, finishing ahead of today’s rival Bank On Anna in that stallion series stakes two back. She doesn’t possess the upside of some other lightly raced runners, but is logical in her current form. That said, I do prefer Bank On Anna of the favorites. She was entered as an MTO in her debut and put in a pretty good effort. She battled early and fought with the well-meant winner late despite getting pushed down to the rail in the late stages. The inside path was not the place to be on Nov. 12, so the effort may be even better than it looks. They threw her into the deep end of the pool last time and she wasn't totally disgraced. I’m using her prominently, but I’m most interested in her main pace rival. Cindy’s Choice figures to offer better value and could be the quickest of them all early. The most notable thing about this filly is her start reaction time. In her last couple of races she’s nearly beaten the gate, breaking about a length ahead of her competition. She actually ran well after that fast start two back, but was compromised by drifting down to a dead rail. Then last time Eric Cancel decided to rate her after her typical fast start, and she lost position on the turn before finishing up decently in the last eighth of a mile. There's more ability here than her results so far would indicate, and she figures to get a more aggressive ride from Trevor McCarthy.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,6 with 1,2,3,6
 

RACE 3: COLORMEPAZZI (#3)
Royal Realm is obviously the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci. This barn is underrated with their new acquisitions, so I’m not really worried about him holding his form off the trainer switch. That said, he’s coming back on very short rest, having just run 6 days ago. That last performance was better than it seems, as he was wide against a rail bias. However, now he’s being asked to cut back to 7 furlongs, and I’m not convinced that shorter trips are really what he’s looking for. A couple of runners exit the Dec. 11 race at this level. Fair Haired Boy finished ahead of Rudy Rod that day, but I prefer the latter runner. Rudy Rod was off in a tangle and never seemed to be handling that sloppy track. He did eventually make up some ground late but was doing it while racing through traffic. I don’t mind the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs, but he does have to get out of the gate this time. This horse has broken slowly in all of his recent starts, and that is a real concern as he leaves from the rail. My top pick is Colormepazzi. This horse ran very well going a similar distance two back against NY-bred company. He broke from the outside post position and made a long, wide run into the race to take over in mid-stretch before getting run down by a deep closer. He made the move that broke the race open, essentially causing it to fall apart. He wasn’t as successful last time, but that was a race that featured a ton of early speed and he doesn’t want to be ridden as a deep closer. This time he figures to be much more forwardly placed and I think the added distance helps.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5
 

RACE 5: PAZZION (#6)
The entry figures to be a pretty short price in this low-level conditioned claimer, but I can’t say that I love either half of this pair. Carly Hustle is probably the stronger runner. She closed decently to be third at this level two back in what was surely a tougher race. A repeat of that performance will make her tough, but I think she will be overbet as the obvious choice as part of a two-for-one deal in a confusing race. A few of these exit another race at this level from Jan. 2 which was a similarly weak affair. Mission Trail is probably the one you want from that race because she did get steadied at a critical point on the turn. However, she’s not exactly the easiest runner to trust as a deep closer in a large field. My top pick is Pazzion. She looks pretty unappealing at first glance, but she had run some decent races as a young 3-year-old when in the barn of Jeremiah Englehart last year. That effort behind Poncho Song and Timed Out last January would make her a major player here. She’s been uncompetitive at Finger Lakes recently, but she’s had a series of excuses – slow breaks, bad placement, and wrong distances. Now she’s getting into the right kind of spot in her return to Aqueduct. Furthermore, Ralph D’Alessandro also has to be respected with longshots at this track. He is 13 for 71 (18%, $3.73 ROI) at Aqueduct over the past two years, often getting his starters to outrun their odds.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5,11
 

RACE 6: SUMMER BOURBON (#2)
Mike Miceli has a pair of runners in this race, and South Sea figures to attract more support off a set of strong recent turf speed figures. He does handle both surfaces, but I think his recent form on turf is a bit stronger than his last couple of dirt performances. He has the right running style, but could be overbet for the wrong reasons as he switches surfaces. I’m much more interested in Miceli’s other entrant Summer Bourbon. This horse was rated last time on a day when it was very hard to make up ground. He also drifted well off the rail, which was the best place to be. I’m not going to be too hard on him for that performance because his prior form was solid. Mike Miceli is a strong 7 for 30 (23%, $2.27 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years, and the barn’s go-to rider Dylan Davis lands here rather than on South Sea. I’m hoping that he can revert to the kind of stalking trip that worked for him at Belmont in September. Speeding Kid and Mi Tres Por Ciento are also worth considering, but the former isn’t really a winning type and the latter runner goes out for the cold Linda Rice barn.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,9
 

RACE 7: CORE CONVICTION (#5)
The pace scenario of this Jazil changes a bit with the announcement that Empty Tomb is expected to scratch to await an ambitious assignment in the Pegasus World Cup. That could make things a little easier for his primary pace rival Core Conviction, who may now play out as the controlling speed. This 5-year-old gelding has taken a long time to come around, but he’s quickly ascended to this level since breaking his maiden in just his second start last November. He’s undefeated on dirt and showed that he had some stamina to go along with his ample speed last time. That was a strong pace for a mile at Aqueduct, and he turned back multiple challenges to win against a salty field. The running line makes it seem like he was stopping at the end, but he was actually digging in during the late stages and was never letting his pursuers past him. While he doesn’t have the most convincing damside pedigree to get the distance, he’s by versatile sire American Pharoah and physically seems like a horse that could handle it. Furthermore, Chad Brown is an excellent 9 for 17 (53%, $3.34 ROI) with last-out winners in dirt routes at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. His main rival appears to be First Constitution, who is seeking his first victory in the United States. This Chilean Group 1 winner has developed into a nice horse under Todd Pletcher, but he was a little disappointing last time when losing as the favorite to Empty Tomb. The stretch-out to 9 furlongs doesn’t figure to pose a problem, but he isn’t exactly helped by the scratch of Empty Tomb. I still prefer him to Forewarned, who is trying to repeat his upset victory in the Queens County. It all came together for him that day, as he got a strong pace ahead of him, and was closing wide over a track that was favoring outside paths. It’s unlikely he’ll be as fortunate on Saturday.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 5 with 2 with 1,6,7
 

RACE 8: THINKING IT OVER (#3)
This second attempt at running the Franklin Square has attracted the same nine fillies as last week with one additional entrant, Captainsdaughter. Moam could vie for favoritism off her debut win at Saratoga. While she has positive experience at the distance, she got a great trip that day, closing into a quick pace. I’m not sure that was the strongest field and I wonder where she’s been for the intervening months. Among the short prices, I prefer Leeloo, who just looks like the horse to beat off her impressive maiden triumph last time out. She may have moved up on the sloppy track, but she had shown some promise in her debut as well. She figures to be forwardly placed early but doesn’t need the lead, and she comes in with the fastest last-out speed figure. Sterling Silver beat Leeloo in her debut and would benefit from a quick pace up front if a few of these fillies decide to knock heads on the lead. She has a right to step forward for a barn that rarely has their firsters cranked up to win on debut. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Thinking It Over. This Ray Handal trainee was touted on debut when she won an off-the-turf affair against a pretty decent field. She had worked impressively coming into that race and delivered, wearing down a fellow first time starter through the lane. Horses have come back out of that race to run reasonably well and I like that she showed the ability to rate. She’s continued to post some fast workout times in the mornings, and I think she’s another who has a right to step forward in her second career start.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,9
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with 1,2,6,7,9
 

RACE 9: OLIVER’S FORTUNE (#8)
Shinjuku may win at a short price, but I have too many questions about this horse to take him as the favorite. His lone prior effort for a claiming tag wasn’t that strong, and I wonder if he just went the wrong way after running well in a couple of starts here last winter. Stretching back out to a mile may work for him, and he could be forwardly placed under apprentice Jose Gomez. The horse just isn’t a particularly strong finisher and I think he’s vulnerable if anyone else shows up. A few of these exit the Jan. 2 race at this level. Forestwood Lane is the horse you want out of that race, which he was trying to close wide against a rail bias. I’m not convinced that there was much of quality behind the much-the-best winner of that race, but at least Forestwood Lane is lightly raced and has room for improvement. Most wouldn’t say the same about my top pick Oliver’s Fortune, but I think this horse deserves a long look. This 4-year-old has had 16 chances, but he hasn’t been in the barn of Ralph D’Alessandro for all of them, and he’s clearly doing well for this trainer right now. He ran better than it seems two back when he got badly shuffled back around the far turn before rallying for second. And last time he showed good speed, but wound up drifting down to a dead rail on Dec. 19. Both of those performances are stronger than the speed figures indicate, and I think he’s a dangerous pace player if he can finally work out a decent trip. As mentioned in regard to Pazzion early, Ralph D’Alessandro is always worth upgrading at Aqueduct at this time of year, as his runners tend to outrun their odds.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,9,10