by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   9 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   7 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 9 - 6
Race 5:   10 - 13 - 5 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 5 - 11
Race 7:   9 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 9 - 2 - 12

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: DISTORTED SKY (#5)
Bill Mott holds a very strong hand in this race, sending out two major players, including Modernist, who is likely to go postward as the oddson choice. This promising colt really appreciated the stretch-out in distance last time, closing with determination through the lane to finish behind a pair of talented rivals. Three horses have returned to win out of that race, so it was a strong affair. Modernist now has to get the 1 1/8 miles, but his dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning routers Life Is Sweet and Sweet Catomine, so the pedigree is there to stretch out further. I have no major knocks against him, other than the fact that he’s going to be an awfully short price. Bill Mott has another contender in this race and I wouldn’t dismiss him lightly. Distorted Sky is a trickier read than Modernist, having never started on dirt. It’s no surprise that they placed him on turf first time out, since he’s a half-brother to multiple foreign-trained winners, topped by French and Italian Group 1 winner Laverock. Distorted Sky came charging from the back of the pack with a strong finish in his debut in a race that didn’t favor closers. As a June foal, he’s likely to keep improving with maturity as he catches up to his peers. The switch to dirt seems curious at first glance, but he is a son of dirt sire Distorted Humor and we saw Mott make this same turf-to-dirt move with impressive maiden winner Harvey’s Lil Goil late last year. There are obviously plenty of turf spots down at Gulfstream where this horse would have been quite formidable, so it seems meaningful that he’s still here getting a shot on dirt.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,4
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with 2,3,4
 

RACE 2: POSHSKY (#9)
It’s difficult to trust anyone in this wide-open $10,000 claimer. Too Fast to Pass seems like the most reliable of the major contenders since he is at least coming off a series of solid performances, having won two of his last three starts at this bottom level. You have to admire this 10-year-old who is seeking his 20th career victory, but there are many others to consider at better prices if you’re willing to forgive some poor recent efforts. Three to Thirteen is among the classiest members of this group and would have been a prohibitive favorite here if not for his dismal performance last time. It’s hard to make a major excuse for that race and the subsequent drop in for this $10,000 tag is alarming. There is plenty of speed signed on and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. That should work against a need-the-lead type like Captain Frost and should help my top pick Poshsky. Another 10-year-old in this field, Poshsky’s form has been somewhat inconsistent over the past year, but he’s still capable of running speed figure that make him competitive at this level. We saw that two back at Parx when he won over a sealed track, and he’s likely to encounter another wet surface on Saturday. He’s effective from off the pace, and I wouldn’t put too much stock in his loss over this strip last time since that race featured no speed and was dominated on the front end.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,6
 

RACE 6: ALRAHAAL (#2)
The likely short prices in here are not standing on very solid ground. Leading the obvious contenders is Bears Mafia, who has earned speed figures in recent starts that make him the fastest member of this field. However, he hasn’t been seen since early October and he’s now dropping in for a $16,000 tag two starts after his current connections claimed him for twice that amount. Clearly they’re not expecting him to deliver a top effort upon return. Violent Delights has run some nice races on occasion, but his form is woefully inconsistent. He’s coming off a poor effort against a tougher group, so perhaps this drop in class will help to wake him up. I’ll use both defensively, but I’d rather shop around for a better price. My top pick is Alrahaal, who also returns from a significant layoff. This gelding was claimed by Gary Contessa last winter and hasn’t achieved much since then. Though he has had some excuses in a few races. He was simply overmatched on April 27 when facing a far better field and then he was compromised by a slow pace when attempting to close two back. The fact that he’s going out for this barn with a low-percentage rider named will ensure that he’s a square price even though he’s earned a few speed figures that put him in the mix, notably achieving his best ever number of a sloppy track. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace so he’s finally going to get the setup that he needs.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,11
 

RACE 8: STAN THE MAN (#5)
Mr. Buff is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to win the Jazil for a second year in a row. This venerable New York-bred gelding has struggled in a few attempts at the graded stakes level during the past year, but he’s otherwise been nearly impossible to defeat against New York-bred or listed company. He’s a specialist at this 1 1/8 miles distance and he loves the Aqueduct main track. The major question for him is whether he can step up against a field of this quality while dealing with the early speed of Leitone, who is likely to be on a mission to make the lead from his outside post position. Mr. Buff has effectively stalked the pace and won in the past, but he’s done some against inferior rivals. Furthermore, there is plenty of rain predicted in the area on Saturday and Mr. Buff has never run a top race over a sloppy, sealed track (almost all of his wet track starts have come on harrowed surfaces). I’m using him prominently, but I prefer his main rival Stan the Man this time. I believe Stan the Man is probably a little better going slightly shorter distances than this, even though he’s 2-for-2 at 9 furlongs. Yet I was encouraged by the fact that he won going this distance off the layoff in the Queens County last time, gamely holding sway late after chasing a fast early pace. He has a versatile running style, which allow him to adapt to whatever pace scenario plays out. He also relishes any kind of wet track, having been particularly effective over sloppy, sealed surfaces like the one he is likely to encounter on Saturday. Sir Winston is the other major player likely to take money, but I can’t bet him at a short price off one dismal effort on the turf. He may yet get back to the top form we saw from him last summer, but I get the sense he isn’t quite there at this point in time.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,7
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,3,4,7
 

RACE 9: KEFALIANI (#1)
There’s very little form to analyze in this low-level maiden claimer for state-breds. Hot Little Honey should be tough to run down if she merely repeats her last effort, when she held on fairly well to be third after contesting an honest pace. There’s no one in here as good as the top two finishers from that affair, so she looks like the most likely winner. However, her form is exposed at this point and I wouldn’t be too keen about taking a short price on anyone in this otherwise convoluted group. Broadway Angel makes some sense as an alternative. She was facing better field at the $40,000 level last time and would be a major factor if she could get back to her debut effort. Yet she’s also going to be among the shorter prices and there’s another contender in this lineup who intrigues me at a much more palatable price. Kefaliani looks fairly unappealing at first glance, but I believe she has a right to fare much better in her fifth career start. She was in a very tough maiden event first time out at Saratoga, finishing behind next-out stakes winner Critical Value. She’s not a turf horse, so I won’t hold her two subsequent efforts against her. They finally dropped her down to a realistic level last time and she didn’t get the smoothest trip. She was forced in coming out of the gate, losing about 3 to 4 lengths of position as she had to steady. From there her 7-pound apprentice rode her fairly tentatively. She did sneak through along the inside coming into the stretch while making up some ground, but she was never really in contention due to that poor start. Now she’s getting a significant rider up grade to Eric Cancel and facing arguably the weakest field of her career, so there are reasons to believe she can take a step forward.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,9,12