by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 2 - 1/1A - 5 - 3
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 7: 8 - 2 - 14 - 13
Race 8: 3 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 9: 11 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 10: 5 - 12 - 7 - 8
RACE 2: DARK MONEY (#8)
There is very little form on which to rely in this confusing maiden-claiming event. I suppose Talespin and Simbasalltrouble will vie for favoritism as they drop in class. Of that pair, I strongly prefer the Michelle Nevin second-time starter. Talespin was actually facing a field of reasonable quality in that first start, as winner Rally Cap came back to finish a strong third against tougher company next time out with an improved speed figure. Talespin should move forward for a barn that typically develops horses over time. Simbasalltrouble is far less appealing. He is coming out of a race that was very fast for the level, but horses have yet to validate the suspiciously fast time, and I expect him to regress. I’m more interested in some of the second-time starters who will offer better value, and my top pick is Dark Money. This gelding was never involved in his debut, but that race came against New York-bred stakes company. The disparity in quality between that field and the $50,000 maiden claimers that others are exiting should not be understated. It’s not at all surprising that this horse was unable to be competitive against the likes of Blindwillie McTell and Kaden’s Courage. Now he is dropping to a much more realistic class level and getting a massive rider upgrade to Junior Alvarado. It’s unclear if this horse has any ability, but I nevertheless find him preferable to the other runners at similar prices.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,6,9
RACE 3: SHE TAKES CHARGE (#4)
Shelley Ann deserves to be every bit of an odds-on favorite. After taking a shot against stakes company in her career debut, Jimmy Jerkens put her back where she belongs against maidens second time out, and this filly responded with a strong performance. She drew off from a field of reasonable quality while earning a respectable 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Moved back up into the stakes ranks following that effort, she managed to improve yet again despite getting little tote-board respect at 16-1. It’s not as if the pace held together in that race, so she did well to hang on for second behind the talented closer Espresso Shot. A repeat of that 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure will likely make her too much for this field to handle. I have plenty of respect for this favorite, but I think there is a filly who could give her a challenge. She Takes Charge was well supported and visually impressive when winning her maiden at the end of December. Unfortunately, that race came back woefully slow, earning just a 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure and a 59 Beyer Speed Figure. Yet I think this filly may have actually run much better than those numbers indicate. Four horses have returned from that race, and they improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by 22, 18, 38, and 42 points in their subsequent starts. If you’re looking at the Beyers, those same horses improved by 9, 25, 42 and 46 points, respectively. I see ample evidence to suggest that She Takes Charge may have actually run a number that is at least 15 to 20 points higher than what she was assigned, and that would put her within range of the favorite. The stretch-out in distance is an unknown factor, but she is by the decent stamina influence Take Charge Indy.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 6 with 2,3
RACE 6: GO GET THE MUNNY (#7)
If Go Get the Munny can run back to his third-place finish at this level on Dec. 15, I believe he will be awfully tough to handle. Not only is his 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure the highest recent number in this field, but he earned that career-best number against a tougher field than this one. The winner of his last start, Honor Up, returned to win a stakes next time out, improving his speed figure by two points. There are no horses of Honor Up’s quality in here, and Go Get the Munny could take a step forward here in his second start off the layoff. Furthermore, it’s not as if that strong return effort was a total surprise. This horse showed real talent when he made his debut last February, drawing off by seven lengths over a solid field while earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I think this horse deserves to be the favorite, and I believe he is the most likely winner. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runners. Wegotoldyougotsold may be a bit quicker than Go Get the Munny in the early going, but the Tom Morley trainee should be lapped right on that foe. Wegotoldyougotsold has run well in both starts for Bruce Levine, but he beat a weaker field two back, and I’m not sure how much further improvement we can expect out of him. I’m somewhat afraid of Fuel the Bern as he continues his class ascent. He was a dominant winner last time, and that 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure has since been validated. Danny Gargan has excellent numbers off wins, but this horse got an absolutely perfect trip that day, and he receives a sterner class test on this occasion. Build to Suit is the real wild card in this race as he returns from a 15-month layoff. He showed ability as a 3-year-old in 2017, and Chad Brown does very well off layoffs, but he may not get much pace to close into.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,8
Trifecta: 7 with 1,8 with 1,3,5,8
RACE 8: TITLE READY (#3)
Sunny Ridge is clearly the horse to beat in this Jazil. He completed his 2018 campaign in excellent form, placing in both the Kelso and Cigar Mile. His runner-up finish in the Kelso may have been his finest effort of the entire year, as he had to overcome a rail bias while rallying into a moderate pace. It’s unclear if the rail was still a disadvantage on Cigar Mile day by the time the feature was run, but Sunny Ridge nevertheless put in a solid late move to get up for third behind the in-form Patternrecognition. While that was a Grade 1 race, it’s worth noting that a few of the key players failed to show up. In other words, I don’t think this drop in class is quite as drastic as it might seem. Sunny Ridge is an honest horse that usually shows up with a solid effort, but I think it’s fair to question whether some of his improvement late last season was due to the renewed focus on one-turn races. He’s always been proficient at a variety of distances, but I do think he’s at his very best going a bit shorter than this 1 1/8 miles distance. He’s the most likely winner and I’m certainly using him prominently, but I’m not sure that I want to bet him as the odds-on favorite. I’m taking a shot against him with the improving 4-year-old Title Ready. A this point in time, he’s a cut below a horse of Sunny Ridge’s stature, but I like the progression of this runner in recent months. He ran deceptively well at Keeneland two back and then was a game second behind the exciting Plainsman in the Discovery. He stepped up to face older horses for the first time in late December and I thought he was game to get up for the victory over today’s rival Thebigfundamental. While the Pletcher runner may have run the slightly better race that day, I prefer Title Ready stretching back out around two turns. Furthermore, Steve Asmussen’s New York barn under assistant Toby Sheets has been winning at an eye-opening rate during this Aqueduct meet. Through Friday, the stable has won with 6 of their last 8 starters, and many of those have been improving on their prior form. If Title Ready continues to improve on his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures, I think he has a shot to upset the favorite.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,7
Trifecta: 3,7 with 3,7 with 1,5,6