by David Aragona
Saturday’s card at Aqueduct features the 125th running of the Grade 3 Toboggan at 7 furlongs. The heavy favorite in this spot is Grade 1 Vosburgh winner Takaful, who makes his four-year-old debut following a brief layoff. He disappointed in his most recent performance in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but I think that’s an effort that you can excuse. The rail was dead at Santa Anita that day and Takaful was one of the only runners in the Sprint to race down in that inside path. Today, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, and he appears to be fast enough to outrun Green Gratto to his outside. Behind him, I want to use Great Stuff in the second spot. He’s been in top form recently for David Jacobson and ran well at Laurel last time in a race where the pace held together. If I play this race, I’d go with a 2-4 exacta.
There are some other wagering opportunities that interest me on the Toboggan undercard, and I’ve detailed those below.
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Race 1: 5 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 5: 4 - 11 - 8 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 1A - 4
Race 8: 1/1A - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 6 - 5 - 3 - 2
RACE 1: TIZ RAE ANNA (#5)
The two horses drawn closest to the rail are likely to take the most money as they enter this off wins against weaker $16,000 conditioned claimers. Anna Rae won her last start just 8 days ago, and beat a field of 10 rivals while overcoming a mild rail bias. If she runs back to that performance, she’s very dangerous here, but Rudy Rodriguez tends to get somewhat overbet in these situations. Over the past five years, he is 14 for 65 (22 percent, $1.32 ROI) second off the claim on the dirt with horses coming off wins. Linda Rice dipped in to claim For Honor out of her last win against a weak group at Belmont in October. That raises the question of why it has taken her so long to get this filly back to the races. Over a five year period, she is just 4 for 24 (17 percent, $1.00 ROI) first off the claim with horses coming off layoffs of 75 to 150 days. I want to look elsewhere, and the horse that interests me most is Tiz Rae Anna. I know that her recent form looks poor, but she’s simply been keeping far tougher company than what she meets here. Since returning from a summer break, she’s faced N1X allowance company in four straight starts. While she’s just not quite good enough to compete at that level, her last performance was not actually that bad. Talented filly Come Dancing dominated that race on the front end, and Tiz Rae Anna did well to stay in contact with the rest of the field despite trying to close into slow fractions. She will appreciate the class relief and her recent speed figures suggest that she doesn’t have to improve much, if at all, to beat this bunch.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6
RACE 4: BAREFOOT ANGEL (#6)
Port Arch figures to be a strong favorite in this spot off a runner-up finish at this level in his first start on dirt. If he merely repeats that performance, he is a likely winner of this race. On the other hand, the pace of that race was falling apart in the late stages, and one could argue that Port Arch was just picking up pieces in the final furlong. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I’m not convinced that he’s a great bet in this race. I actually prefer the probable second-choice, Barefoot Angel. While he’s coming out of a weaker race than the favorite, I think he was compromised by tactics last time. Rather than aggressively send him to the front, as Manny Franco had done in his prior start, Rafael Hernandez chose to rate Barefoot Angel last time and I’m not sure that he responded as well to those tactics. This horse’s weapon is his speed and the tentative ride he received in that last start may have compromised his chances. He actually ran reasonably well two back despite finishing sixth, since that race fell apart in the late stages after swift early fractions. Now, trainer Charlton Baker puts blinkers back on this son of Pomeroy, and apprentice rider Luis Reyes certainly knows how to send a horse to the front. Barefoot Angel is faster than his main rivals in this spot, and I think he’s a threat to wire the field. The others that I would include are Our American Star and Shipsandgoods, but they’re far less trustworthy than the two favorites.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4
RACE 7: LEM ME TEL YA (#5) / COMEONCOMEONCAT (#7)
Collective Effort is the horse to beat, since he’s run quite well in each of his seven career starts. However, he’s also far and away the most experienced horse in this field, so it’s not as if we can expect much more improvement out of him, whereas others offer plenty of upside. Furthermore, Collective Effort really improved when switched to turf at the end of his 2-year-old season, and I fear that he could be an underlay off those performances. Fellow short price Belleville Spring will appreciate getting back on a fast track, but I wasn’t thrilled with his overall form. I instead want to shift my focus to the less experienced runners. Of the firsters, Speke figures to take the most money as he goes out for the Todd Pletcher barn. He may want to go a bit farther than this as a half-brother to router Papa Shot, but he’s dangerous nonetheless. Yet the two runners that I want to bet are second-time starters. Lem Me Tel Ya switches surfaces after running reasonably well in his turf-sprint debut. I thought he was finishing strongly that day, and he certainly has a pedigree that suggests he can make this surface switch. His sire, Take Charge Indy, was a dirt horse, and his dam was a multiple stakes winning sprinter on dirt. The other horse that I want to use at an even better price is Comeoncomeoncat. I know his first race came over a sloppy surface, but he put in a solid effort that day, showing good early speed while chasing the swift Flash Drive. It’s a positive sign that Javier Castellano took the mount last time and he gets another live rider, Junior Alvarado, again here.
Win: 5,7
Exacta Box: 1,5,7
Exacta: 5,7 with 3,4,5,7,10